blonde poker forum

I'm at a lively first table in the 6max on sunday. Simon Deadman is in seat 2,i'm seat 3, old weaktight guy in seat 4, chinese frankie seat 6 isittttt.

some old loose guy limps utg from seat 5, frankie makes it 325 at 50/100 utg+1. Folds round I peel from SB with  Jd 9d. BB,and limp all call.

Flop  Jc Ts 8c. I should probably have led here but I checked, checks round.
Turn  Jh. I bet 750. BB calls. 2 folds.
River  2c Hero?

Is bet folding the best option here? My read was villain unlikely to bluff if I bet, might if I check. I thought villain has AT KT that may call a bet and also might peel pre from BB with J7s or maybe even worse jacks but unlikely.

Most of these hands in villains calling range would probably check behind on that board so I didn't want to miss out on a value bet. If we're leading here, how much? What do you think about check calling? Or even check folding?

Thoughts on c/f?

You describe as weak tight so I think bet/fold is fine. Don't want to miss value from hands he'll call a bet with but prob check behind. And I doubt he'd be raising you unless he has the flush or better trips/boat. Something like 1500 seems fine to me.

I doubt he ever calls with worse if we bet 1500 on river.

He is weak/ tight I don't think he will call with anything your beating, I would be happy for a check behind or calling a small bet, I don't know many TIGHT players calling a river bet with a possible straight and flush on a paired board with  2 nd pair

Checking flop is fine.

Betting the J on the turn is also fine especially if you rep it if you haven't got it.

If you're certain that villain isn't good enough to bluff raise the river then bet/fold is obviously the perfect play. If you're not certain then just check/call.

The problem with a value bet here is you need him to have a 10 in his hand or possibly Jx that's worse than yours. Anything else he either folds, value raises or calls and wins. Even worse is if he's good and bluff raises you off triple jacks.

Without a bit more info I think the safe option of check call is the way forward.

Quite possibly the worse thing ever in this situation.

If you're doing that just fold pre please.

yes the vbet is to be called specially by AT, KT and worse jacks. This makes up a fair amount of his range here imo. Sure, there's stuff that he'll call and win with, and stuff he'll raise and ill fold. But given I was 95% certain he wouldnt bluff raise the river, I think bet folding 1000-1150 is superior to check calling.

I much prefer check call here for same reasons as mr pie and also to allow them to bluff.

I think against this villain if he's betting that river, we are behind sooo often. He checks behind most things that may call a small bet.

Make a list of all the hands he might have that will call your bet which you will be happy to see.

Then make a second list of all the hands he might have that will call your bet which you won't be happy to see.

Add to this second list all the hands he may have that he will raise your bet with thus make you fold. Add a couple of hands here to account for 1 in 20 chance you allocated for him bluff raising the river.

Also add a few for the times he sees your turn bet / river check as weak thus giving him a chance to bluff.

If list 2 contains more hands than list one then check call.

Imho even more reason to check river

Matt since when you become so tez that you are thinking along same lines as me?

I bet fold for not very much vs this type of villain.

If he doesn't bluff ever in this spot then checking river is bad imo.

Also the majority of his range that beats you wont raise the river so betting 1/2pot would be a nice blocker vs a flush/bigger jack and probs 22.

And again if he never raises as a bluff its a bet fold.

I dont like check folding personally.

if he never bluffs when checked too and doesnt call with a 10 then c/f would be my line.

I agree. But does he really never call with a 10? seems like its worth a bet to me.

Think bet/fold is optimal line. Also not betting big

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

Is he not described as "Old loose passive" ?

+1 on folding pre, although I would probs always call whilst knowing I should fold, lol

did you misread our hand? jack 9 blueeeeeeeeeeeee!

in all seriousness, really fold pre? 6max vs 3.25x. We are in small blind and can be pretty sure BB and limper will call too. 225 into pot of 325x3 + 100 = 1075. everyone with about 10k chips. Sure we're oop but I wouldn't ever fold suited connectors/ one gappers in this spot. Would you be folding 45s or 68s? is it because we're often dominated? JTs?

Our position is abs terrible, 1st to act of 4 on the flop, then if the PFR cbets we're 1st of 3 facing that decision. We flop top pair but leading out overreps this and will leave us in even tougher spots than the one we're in. It's just not gonna be possible to get value when we hit unless we cooler someone, so yes J9s is an easy fold, as is 68s. 45s is closer (but still a fold) and JTs I would call, but would not be thrilled about it.

Ok. I gave each player a generous range and randomly selected a hand from that range for this example (franky's obv the tightest and BB the widest).

Hold'em Simulation ?
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Jd9d   21.31%   224,335   15,193
KhJc   21.07%   221,795   15,193
AsQs   33.05%   358,378   2,188
5s5c   24.57%   266,307   2,188

Given this exact example you have 21% equity and you're pot equity is 25% at current assuming BB is peeling. Then coupled with the potential for the BB to have limped to 3bet makes pre-flop too loose imo.

with only a 4% deficit pre flop you could justify a call if you're gonna win a big pot if make smash the flop.

(http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/POKER%20GRAPHS/nlheequitygraph.jpg)

But you see we flop suitable equity such a small % of the time, plus we have no reason to think we're gaurenteed to stack someone without really coolering them, as people are generally more cautious in multi-way pots.

I know this example is likely to change drastically with different cards but I pulled them at random and I think it gives a decent idea of the reasons why you will struggle to show a profit peeling OOP here.

end of discussion ;)

Fml, 2 replies saying the same thing and mine has the least maths in it. I'm officially old school :(

100000000000% fold pre (and u have the prettiest hand in the deck to me.)

Need stack sizes to be sure but almost certainly a fold pre, frankie isn't doing this light

I read the OP as it was the BB we're playing against on the river not the old loose passive guy. In that case definitely betting river, this is exactly the type of board that you'll get looked up on often by stationy non-believer live players.

Also lildave is my hero

We need Dubai in this thread to advise that we raise pre and win the pot by outplaying our oppos on a  5h 6h 7h  Ks Aspades board.

Fold pre, bet/fold now. Don't think he's folding a T or bluff raising like ever. Also probs peels no end of Jxs pre in multiway pots.

Sorry to de-rail this BUT.




I out-mathed James Keys, got a +1 from railtard and hero status from Dan Morgan in the same thread.

Doubt i'll ever play again

the old weaktight guy replies. not a bad description for a guy whos only 44. ur too kind cambridgealex but the truth is u were bluffed off the pot with q9. plus u got the flop wrong it was 7 10 jack, id already decided what i was going to do on the river while u were playing the turn. i also notice that u forgot to mention about ur great play a few hands later when the blinds were 400/800 and it was the classic sb v bb situation and u looked across at my humble 10k stack with approx 27k sitting in front of you. u announce all in,( i really must check up on which book thats in) beleve me 2400 would of been more than enough for me to fold. then we got moved tables, pity really. especially a short time afterwards u were seen heading to the rail.

                                             regards the old guy

LOL weeeeeee

moarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Incred - just incred.
Im pretty sure the 10k "ALL-IN" is in every book since super systems fwiw :)

stfu and blog. been like a week.

solid gold

+1. Brilliant. Prob a level tho

"44 yr old man angered by young person looking at his stack" shocker

did you ask how much he had Alex? they love that the live guys

2400 would have got the job done alex u fool

lol just seen thiis - brilliant! cant believe I got bluffed - disaster. And also can't believe pushing 11.5 bbs sb v bb caused such offence! Actually I guess I can...

You young aggressive kids, you'll never understand. ITS JUST ACE HIGH!

tbf, AK is just ace high.

raise to 4x, if he shoves you know he has a pair and you can fold. ITS CALLED THE INFORMATION BET YO.

fwiw this was level 2, and I bubbled at least 5 hours later (brag?).

Is this with AK? cos i dont even think raising with AK is a good idea. Maybe to find out where I'm at. Might just call, try and see a cheap flop you know?

Does the old weaktight guy always refer to himself in the third person?

I don't know Jamie. I am obviously not a good judge of character. How does someone of this description a) find a bluff in that spot. and b) join an online forum to tell me about it! How bad to I run!? The intraweb is not just for us kidz apparently.

Maybe you can ask him yourself, he did join Blonde specifically to try and rinse me. (btw no-one has written a lovely "Welcome to Blonde" post yet...).