blonde poker forum

watching the GUKPT steam on awop, i got involved in a conversation about SKYBET's offer of this bet.

blackpool to have NO 0-0 draws in the prem this season, with 26 games remaining. skybet have offered 7/2, which i think is a bit short. although i do think there is a reasonable chance.
 what would you think is a fair price?

lol he asked paul jackson who offered 66/1

66/1 is massive value.  The goals in their games are normally in for between 2.75 and 3.  If we assume that because they will play MU, Chelsea etc and the goals will be higher in those games that on average they are a goal underdog and total goals are 3 in all their games then they are 18-1 in every game to be 0-0  and they have 26 games left so 1.055555 to the power of 26 is  4.08 so a shade over 3-1.  Teams do regress to the mean in terms of goals but even so 7/2 looks okay to me never mind 66/1!!!!

  yeah there was 2 who said it should of been 66/1...other quote i heard ....jon kalmar said evens. others ranged from 5/2 to 16's.... i tried to do the maths on it and thought anything over 4/1 was decent price,   on an average team its worked out at something like 14/1, based on games left average 0-0's per season.
   but blackpool are less likely to be involved ina 0-0 that say arsenal or chelsea, they have no choice but to throw caution to the wind and go for wins every game, quite simply because they are not strong enough to play for a bore draw( no disrespect to blackpool fans) , but "going for it" leaves them a a little vulnerable at the back, but they have proved more than capable of scoring a few, and i just can't pick out a game where it could be 0-0.
   a few stats i found. blackpool have not had a 0-0 for 30 games 5 home games 19 goals scored, 7 away games 26 goals scored....... all summed up that 7/2 doesn't look so stringy

The price which pooped into my head when I saw this thread was 2/1.

I certainly wouldn't offer 7/2.

cheers keith, e1 repects ur opinion on bets/prices and you have just made me feel more confident. i did take a bet with someone last night for more than 7/2......so no 0-0's blackpool please, i need that money to celebrate newcastle end of season triumph of making the top half :D

The maths works out somewhere between 5-1 and 5.8-1. If we allow for the fact that 0-0 would increase slightly in price if they continue to go without one, then id say 4.5-1 is the lowest price id ever consider taking. And it aint really value

Its just their average price for 0-0 to the power of 26 btw. Even if their average price was 20-1 for 0-0 the price would then be 5-2. And no team in history has an average 0-0 sp of 20-1. The highest il accept their average 0-0 sp is at the moment would be 14-1, that comes to bang on 5-1 for the season. So dont get carried away by your instincts, the 7-2 is on low side, and anything lower is just burning ev


Edit! Hadnt read Redarmis post

how balla is paul jackson? lets see if he'll lay a grand at 66/1.....

Im sure he'l lay it nps. Gl getting paid tho lol

This a is a good post. Regardless I'll have a 1000 to 250 if you want to lay it.

Well il have to otherwise id be a hypocrite. So yes ur on.

I don't think I respect anybody more than you for making and taking bets on here. You are my hero.

booked.

What price now?

MBN to be Camel - Nice Bink Keith

Thread delivers quickly!

Apparently it was end to end, chances galore too

Poor Keith. No sweat, no fun

  keith's a clever man  he would of backed the 0-0 on bf where it went to 20.0 to cover his back

i had it a 18.5

FYP

not sure what this means lol i ain't down with the lingo :)

but i had £100 with paul gardner on the 0-0 for the rest of the season, he gave me 13/2.....i had a daft fiver at 18.5 to cover my backside

Fixtures 13 November / West Ham v Blackpool / Correct Score  0 - 0 Back 12738271869 12-Nov-10
17:23    C 18.5  5.00   18.5 87.50

so i find out what is meant by aftertiming......lmfao    how can i be aftertiming if i was on the end of a losing bet.......ffs i was hardly tipping a 0-0, i didn't think for 1 minute it would be 0-0,  i was covering my arse to cut my loses

oh fk it..CBA

kthx gn

Haha com timing of the thread,Neil where you going to back 0-0 every game ?

yeah was gonna cover my arse with any game i thought was a possible 0-0....even if i backed all 26 games i would of made a small profit...lol i made a satement yesterday on thenutz while watching the gukpt......about blackpool and newcastle and 0-0's  the toon were 31games without a 0-0 blackpool were 30....


what a fkin double that would of been today......but hey i should be careful, this is sounding like AFTERTIMING lolololol

btw u heard carroll has made the england squad

Yeah,It was expected with all the players missing,Jay Boothroyd however was quite the suprise ???

along with agbonlahor, bothroyd and crouch. gotta be the weakest striking line up for years

hope he comes good though, we could do with a bit of fresh blood coming through

 i'll be honest, i wasn't even sure if he was going to cut it in the prem.......but he has been mighty impressive this season and certainly prooved me wrong about him, i've seen him play live plenty of times, from youth, reserves to 1st team and always thought he was a handful in the box but lacked pace, where the freck has he gained these extra yards from??

   i really do hope he has a blinder, a good targetman with a confident rooney to play off him, we might even be good enough to make a quarter or even a semi in the euro's ;)

I went to the game and it was amazing how it stayed 0-0. Both teams sooo open at times. Hammers in a huge fight this season :(

Marv.

Pm me your bank details and I'll ship.

Half tempted to have the bet again.

Will pm bank details

You can have same again if u want- I priced it up higher than that so only right I lay again