blonde poker forum

Villain is a good capable aggressive player. Both villain and I are over 400 big blinds deep. No particular history with him.


Villain straddles to £5. Couple of calls. I call on the button with  6h 6d Big blind completes and villain checks.

Flop  7s 6c 3c Villain leads for £26. Folded to us. We raise to £76. Villain tanks for a while and calls.

Turn  9c Check Check

River  4c He Rechecks his cards. Thinks for 30 secs and bets £250.

Hero???

Sigh fold for me!

Why did'nt you bet the turn? Looks like a fold now.

Should've asked. Wot do u think of the play pre-flop, flop and turn

Think U played it fine. Might just call flop on occasion. Fold now

Id always make it £30 or so pre

As played flop is fine. Bet the turn. As played cant see im ever folding the river, theres vvv few combinations of AcX he can have from the straddle as played pre and on the flop. Shoving looks fine even tho you obv are also repping v few combinations but we can assume he doesnt realise that anyway given its live poker.

Does his flop lead not suggest some sort of draw?

People dont tend to tank with the nut flush draw. They either bet/call quickly to try and slow the raiser down or bet/3bet to get it in

i'd raise pre. Raise the flop 100% of the time as you did. Definitely bet the turn - that is the biggest mistake imo. You get loads of value from worse hands, protect your hand vs random pair plus small/medium clubs and you can define his range much better. By checking the turn, you really don't have a clue where you stand and are left guessing by the river as to whether he's bluffing or not.

As played, if I know villain is capable of doing this with air then i might find a call, but against an unknown its a fold for me. I disagree that there few AcX combos, I think he bets the flop with  Ac 7d,  plus all nut flush draws. I agree with Dubai that ppl in live cash do tend to call quickly rather than tank call with the nut flush draw. But having said that, you said he was good and capable, unlike most live cash players, so that logic doesn't really apply.

Also, it's unwise to assume that his range is polarised to  Ac or air. Vs an unknown he could be doing this with a small club to bluff you off a bigger one or using the classic thought process "I knew you didn't have the Ace" and bet this with the K or Q. Again if he's good this is less likely. But still possible that he is bluffing with the best hand. Also, don't be levelled by him rechecking his cards on the river. Good players do this as a level so I'd try to ignore that.

All in all, this is a fold imo.

Given all you have said it makes it a shove not a fold surely?

yes raise pre bet turn all in river ship it

No, i said I disagree that there are few  AcX combos (ie. i think there are many). So he has the nuts here quite a lot. Even if he's bluffing in this spot 40% of the time it's still a fold. In live cash he doesnt need to risk 125bbs (or more) by making this gamble. He is basically just guessing and has no idea what frequency villain is bluffing/has the nuts. He can win 125bbs far easier in another spot because ppl put their money in dead so often.

Can you name the combos for me please.

And please dont think he is dwelling on the flop to balance his bet dwell calling range. Its a live 1-2 game, he wont know what that means.

I just wanna see these combos of AcX hands

Just so u realise- even if u insist he can have the nut flush draw on the flop, which seems dubious at best, the only combos he can have given pre is surely

A2
A5
A8

A5 is a gutshot, so no idea why he is tanking with that. So even if you want to say he can have the nut flush draw you are basically saying his combo of hands he is repping is Ac7x Ac2c Ac8c. Personally i think the only hand he gets to the river like this after dwelling is Ac7x. So when I say he is repping a narrow range which makes it a shove I cannot see how i can possibly be wrong. But you are more than welcome to enlighten me

". Even if he's bluffing in this spot 40% of the time it's still a fold. In live cash he doesnt need to risk 125bbs (or more) by making this gamble. He is basically just guessing and has no idea what frequency villain is bluffing/has the nuts. He can win 125bbs far easier in another spot because ppl put their money in dead so often. "



I wouldnt even know where to start with this. So il just say its basicallly all wrong

the dwelling from a good/capable player does not mean hes unlikely to have just the nut flush draw. He could be thinking about raising with the A5cc or thinking about raising with all the Axcc combos u mentioned. If you believe Ac7 is the only hand he can have that gets to the river, then I agree, of course it's a shove.

Yes but EVEN if u think he can have the nut flush draw- then there is still only 4 combos- thats the point im making. A2cc A5cc A8cc Ac7x.

And bear in mind you said this "No, i said I disagree that there are few  AcX combos (ie. i think there are many)."

So im asking what are the many combinations? Cos obv no-one would consider 4 to be many

Do explain what is wrong with this. The 40% was off the top of my head, so i'll go into more detail. The pot is 76*2 + preflop (say 30). Lets say 185. If he calls the 250, he needs to be correct 36.5% of the time to break even. Therefore villain needs to be bluffing at least 36.5% to make it a call.

The point about there being better spots is so standard. These games are so easy, you can get ppl to put their money in dead.

OK not many. But yes 4 combos, I dont know whether he'd raise ATcc from the straddle, possibly not, but given description, probably. 

how quickly did he check turn? i think he has 99, i like a jam

Checked his straddle option

I agree I should've probably raised pre. Although more like GBP15 as a pot builder for when we hit a set or to bluff on later streets (as we are in position) rather than GBP30 or more like Dubai suggested. Because that leaves us open to a bigger 3bet from one of the early limpers, negating any implied odds to setmine. Or most often sees us go to flop 3ways or heads up. And the problem with doing this with small-mid pairs, I find is that on most flops when we c-bet, we are effectively bluffing (i.e. cant stand a raise,or when called are usually behind) And the times we do hit our set, we need villain to hit the board hard enough to get paid off (i.e. TPTK, overpairs, two pair, combi draws etc)

I agree people don't tend to tank with nut-flush draws; but then I was pretty sure that he'd raise his straddle with a suited ace.  I know that I probably should bet the turn. On the flop, his lead can be a  draw; but again looking at his sizing 26 into 26 seemed more like a top pair bet trying to make draws pay. However if he did have a flush draw, I was pretty sure he'd bet the turn, when it hit

His range is not just polarised to Ac or air. I don't beat a 5 either. But apart from 75 and possibly 85, I can't see any other 5's that he'd bet the flop with. He's good enough to lead out with 54 on the flop but again I can't see him betting it that heavy or flatting the flop raise on that board

On the river I was getting a horrible price to call. I couldnt shove, because I had tanked for long enough for him to realise that I'm repping very little myself. I called and he announced two pair as I flipped

If raising to 15 is better than 30 pre so we can bluff later streets, then il get a job

raising the river is pretty bad, bet turn and since hes repping few combo's i think its a trivial hero call OTR.

why u think it bad whollyflush? we fold out better quite a lot i think?

Well when he bets this large OTR we can safely assume he doesn't have 9c  Jc Tc hands in his range that he does sum sick merge with (we can also assume he doesn't get to the turn with these cards often). Only hand which value towns us is a srt8 (no club) and obv getting snapped by Ac.

Basically his river bet sizing is poloarised so shoving makes zero sense.

I think we should ignore how quickly he called the flop and assume he's polarized to nuts/air and then do a fold or a call, probably a call.

I agree that he is totaly polarised here to  Ac/air

and I agree also that he doesnt have too many  Ac combo's, so with THIS being said Id take my stnd line of when people rep super thin I call.

However Im struggling because there isnt a lot of AIR he can have imo, we cant narrow his range pre so he could have 74/64/34 maybe as complete airballs but would he lead the flop with these? not convinced.

So the other option is he;s turnign something with some showdown value into a bluff and Idk how often live guys actually do this, like he wouldn't turn a 5 into a bluff would he? or 67/74 idk seems wierd

He just doesnt have enough stuff that bluffs imo so i reckon i'd vomit a liil bit then fold. Im really shocked he has turned 2p into a bluff here I wouldn't expect it from a random live fish - playing with his face perhaps.

Really not a fan of raising pre. This is a live 1/2 game, people don't fold so I'm happy to set mine pre. I'd raise the flop a lot bigger to ~£100. His range for leading this flop is pretty strong imo so I can't see him bet/folding a lot.

The turn is pretty close imo. Arguments for betting are that the 9 only improves him if he has clubs so we should keep charging 89 and random single clubs, but the arguments for checking are that its gunna be hard to get more value from a stubborn 7x without a club and if we get jammed on we're in a gross spot, we also make the pot huge when there are a ton of bad rivers for us. I don't think either would be a big mistake tbh.

As played I think the river is pretty much a snapcall. There are so few Ac combos that he can have with the flop action and thats all he's repping

I agree with this defo I think the value to flopping a set multi-way in a game like this is worth taking a rele passive approach