blonde poker forum

I discussed the hand with 2 PLO players after the hand and both said very different things and now I don't know if I'm levelling myself.

I don't wanna say my opinion yet until I've had some others. If anyone has anything interesting to say about the rest of the hand (sizing etc), fire away but if not I mainly want to discuss the flop....

Please only post if you have reasonable experience / knowledge of PLO.

Full Tilt Poker Game #25860584113: Table Vroom (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 16:30:31 ET - 2010/11/25
Seat 1: pete royal ($166.45)
Seat 2: phoenix21xx ($578.90)
Seat 3: GreekStein ($274.65)
Seat 4: erdissimo ($75.80)
Seat 5: Morkgohome ($60.90)
Seat 6: aniara66 ($59.15)
erdissimo posts the small blind of $0.50
Morkgohome posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GreekStein [9c Ad 8c As]
aniara66 folds
pete royal has 8 seconds left to act
pete royal folds
phoenix21xx raises to $3.50
GreekStein has 15 seconds left to act
GreekStein raises to $12
erdissimo folds
Morkgohome folds
phoenix21xx raises to $37.50
GreekStein raises to $114
phoenix21xx calls $76.50
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ks Qs]
phoenix21xx checks
GreekStein bets $160.65, and is all in
phoenix21xx calls $160.65
GreekStein shows [9c Ad 8c As]
phoenix21xx shows [3d Kd Kc Qc]
*** TURN *** [Ts Ks Qs] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ks Qs 7s] [2s]
GreekStein shows a pair of Aces
phoenix21xx shows three of a kind, Kings
phoenix21xx wins the pot ($547.80) with three of a kind, Kings
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $550.80 | Rake $3
Board: [Ts Ks Qs 7s 2s]
Seat 1: pete royal didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: phoenix21xx showed [3d Kd Kc Qc] and won ($547.80) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 3: GreekStein (button) showed [9c Ad 8c As] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: erdissimo (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Morkgohome (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: aniara66 didn't bet (folded)

Really u asking people to treat this serious ? Blimimng comedian if im being polite! CHECK FOLD OBV ON FLOP...... not ROCKET SCIENCE.....................................

Any reads on opponent?

we haz da ayces of spades.

we also have 4 cards, maybe that was a misdeal. who knows.......

Is that because you saw his hand?

You're the fish who cant post reads or remove results so don't blame other people for being results orientated.



Amateur mistake.

Once the pot is so big pre, you have to push with your hand, its just unlucky he has hit.  Someone might be able to do one of those graphs that show what his likely equity is on any flop, I'd be surprised if always pushing isnt profitable against that hand (tho not sure about a rundown hand).



If I get deep in rush I try to disguise my hand as much as possible, so would just call a 4 bet in position with a wide range also I don't 3 bet full pot.

not all true, but unfortunetly this is worst possible flop for his hand an its almost 100% the other guy got some of this. Pre flop is absoltuley fine play with just flat calling also but very weak long term an it has to be a check fold here on flop.
p.s DIDNT EVEN SEE FINISH HANDS GREEKY JUST PLAIN COMMOM SENSE WITH UR HOLDINGS HE MUST HAVE ALOT OF THAT FLOP 90% OF THE TIME.

Fold pre.




























 ;hide;

gl check folding

Am I right in thinking you only have 2 (3 ish if yer an optimist) hands pre and he has 4?  I'm not keen as you don't have much really.  Deffo never seeing the pot get beyond the 3 bet pre and folding the flop.

Range of opinions here, pls post moaaar

I didn't read anybody else's opinions but i check fold the flop personally.

What hand can he have that doesn't have enough of this flop to take the risk that you're not holding spades or AJ. Any flush calls, any straight calls, any set calls, top 2 is prob pushing it but i could probably do it for the pot size. Given pre flop he must have one of these about 90% of the time.

$114 out of our $274 is in the middle, if we're 5 betting pre surely we're committing ourselves to the pot whatever comes?

Does this then mean we should be sizing differently in the hand and even flatting the 4-bet with position?

Also, this is like the nut worst flop for us

I don't see anything wrong with committing as much as possible pre. So I guess checking back the flop and folding any turn is probs okay seeing as it's the worst flop possible. I should have paid attention to your disclaimer :)

Are you ok with re-jamming the whole lot in pre and if so why?  Genuine question.

We are favourite over any non-AA hand.

Why would we not get it in pre when we're going to show a profit (and a healthy one) doing it.

Check/fold and its not close imo

Name a hand that he calls a 5bet pre that isn't crushing us on this flop

The fact it's K-Q-T is way worse than the fact it's all spades. I c/f here.

6789 / 3456 etc

JJ88 (random 2 pair hands)

Other AAxx

I'm playing devils advocate too btw.

lol obv

You lot still talking about this hand! Godsake its a fold an thats the end of it. Why ? cause his range will have hit that flop most of the time an you have 1 pair wt no chance of improvement an with 40% of stack in you can make the fold an use the remainder of your now decimated stack reduced to 60% for a better chance to recover losses due to unlucky flop. x

Oh is this thread really A wind up or you just tilting so badly from your classy display at dtd an that you no longer feel confident in your game m8 ? 

hes in positon so you cant check fold on the flop

just saying


As I said earlier I dont bloat pots preflop in position, so for me this situation is academic, but I have a question for those who give up - what flop textures do you c bet and what flops do u call if villain donks?

[  ] Feel good about my game at the moment.

[  ] As bad as you are.

[ x ] xxxxxx

I don't get why you wouldn't 4 bet here PF here in position? for balance maybe, but i'd want a stronger AA to do it .

as for your other question, tons of different flops you cbet but anything contaning all broadway given the PF is ugly as sin - Pretty much anything else gets the lot most of the time from me.

balancing wasn't a consideration here, was playing 0.50/1 rush where the majority of the player pool wont know my game.

Its a 5 bet anyway but


obv balance - my view on plo atm is that the ability to make a pot sized bet on the river in position is the most ev+ thing possible, so my overall strategy is to be able to do that and avoid being the one thats oop facing the bet.

 

Pot size on the flop is 228 and you have 160 back. Assuming your options are jam or check when you jam and are called the pot will be:
228+160*2 = 547. I.e. Your jam risks 160 to win 547. The breakeven equity you need for the jam to be profitable if you are called 100% of the time is 160/547*100 = 29%

a) If we stove the top 4% of hands then you equity on this flop is:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://"http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=TsQsKs&g=oh&h1=9cAd8cAs&h2=4%25") 600,000 trials (Randomized) board: TsQsKs Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 9cAd8cAs|23.31% |73,152|133,421 4%|76.69% |393,427|133,421

b) Vs an extremely wide 4b range we do even worse due to the increase of middling rundowns :

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://"http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=TsQsKs&g=oh&h1=9cAd8cAs&h2=10%25") 600,000 trials (Randomized) board: TsQsKs Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 9cAd8cAs|21.61% |111,484|36,345 10%|78.39% |452,171|36,345

c) Vs a very tight 4b range we do much better.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://"http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=TsQsKs&g=oh&h1=9cAd8cAs&h2=2%25") 600,000 trials (Randomized) board: TsQsKs Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 9cAd8cAs|33.50% |57,953|286,037 2%|66.50% |256,010|286,037

Given the fact that villain flatted our 4bet we can assume that our actual equity when called lies more between a) and b) than between c) and a). This is due to the fact that villain probably jams the very top of his 4bing range to a 5bet and flats the rest of it.

It's also important to note that our equity between 4%(23) and our equity between 10% (21) is not a smooth curve. For example at 7% we have 20% equity. I couldnt list the top 10% of omaha hands or the top 7% or whatever but I would guess this is due to the fact that 10% includes more smaller ds rundowns. Regardless I think it would be safe to go ahead and assume that our equity when called is somewhere in the low 20's. As we saw earlier our breakeven equity on a shove is 29% so if we're called 100% this would be a fairly trivial check/give up down the streets.

Unfortunately that is not the end of the hand because it now starts to get complicated when you take in to account the fact that he might fold to our shove. As you mentioned earlier if he 4b a hand like 4567ds or jj88 he would have to c/f KQTsss. Personally I tend to not 4b these hands as they play better the higher the psr. Also, given this is rush there isn't a whole lot of need for balance. In other words Villain doesn't really have to worry about being exploited by only 4betting AAxx and flatting anything else he wants to continue with. We can get a better idea of how much villain needs to fold to our shove to account for our equity disadvantage by running some numbers:

As we've stated earlier our equity when called is like somewhere in the low 20's, between 20 and 23. For calculations sake lets assume it is 21.5. When called our play warrants a $EV of:
21.5%*547 = $117 - our wager(160) = -$43.
To calculate the amount villain has to fold:

***           F(fold%) = F*227 + (1-F)*(43) >0
                227F - 43 +43F > 0
                270F > 43
                F > 43/270
                F > 0.16

To make our shove +ev we need villain to fold 16% or more of the time. Without knowing villains 4b/flat range we can't move any further toward solving the hand. However I would say that the type of villain this might possibly be a jam against would be one that we've seen 4b fold in similar spots before. This is due to the fact that a 4bet folding range would typically include a lot of high card rundowns and AXXX hands that do badly vs a 5b range that is exclusively AAXX. If they flat our 4b we can assume then that their range is skewed toward hands that play better against AAXX and ultimately worse on KQTsss.

To conclude, I think it would be overly optimistic to think that villain folds >16% of the time and would say that this is most likely a check give up, but without knowing his exact 4b/flat range can't say for sure.




***Ty Ash Mason for helping me with this.

5 bet my arse, not one suited ace, no k,q,j or 10 to back up..5 bet is so wrong here in so many levels...

dont think the quality of the aces is the issue here, if anything the less likely the aces are to flop well the bigger % of your stack you should want to put in pre.  The problem when deep is that its diff to get a big % in without giving away your hand.

 

Good way to express yourself, despite being wrong.

Am i really missing something here? You have less than a pot size bet back on the flop, once he's checked its such an auto shove.

Once you've 5 bet its going in regardless of flop.

yes you are. This is one of the few flops that are so awful for your hand you should check back and fold to a bet in most peoples eyes.

Please stop this thread ! he s got 60% of his chips left why murder them ! its a FOLD 10 TIME OUT OF 10 UNLESS THE PLAYER IS A MANIAC which hes not or greeky would of said!

well i had no info on him at all.

Pete what do you think of the way opponent played the hand?

Really sick work Rob x ^^THAT POST NEEDS MORE LOVE  ;applause;

My initial thoughts on this were that this is such a terrible board for a 4bet calling range (likely to include really good KKxx and Txxx rundowns) non of which are folding, and us having the  Aspades only takes a few flushes out of his range and he isnt folding ANY flush ofc. SO a chk back and fold. I tried to think of a way we can bet fold but that seems too ridiculous to consider. He's gonna put us on AAxx pretty much exclusivley so he's callling near enough spot on here imo. sigh and give up imo

5betting pre is as fine a flatting the 4bet depends whether you have ANY 5betting range, but given this is RUSH we dont have to worry too much about all so 5bet and print some EV$

so we check back and the turn is a  Jc and he jams, who's calling/folding?

With a J on the turn he's even more screwed and it's a snap fold with a broken wrist from doing it so fast...imo of course.

why?

agree with the first point vgd post

dont agree that balancing is irrelevant in rush.  HUDs work just as well as they do on regular tables.  I've only got 20 hands on villain and he is 43/31 with a lol 33% 3 bet.  So even on that small sample I'd be prepared to bet that villain is certifiable.

I think what rob meant was you're gonna get into so few spots where you to need to be too concrened about not balancing ur 4/5bet ranges, I mean even 20-30k hands on a certain played isnt often enough of a sample to really know. I think in RUSH you can play spots liek these in a vacuum and you'll struggle to get to exploited.

Altho I agree that you should keep ur image/ranges senisble for more stnd spots.

yes tyvm to Patonius for a sick post.

If your gonna 5 bet and then not shove, just dont 5 bet.

Call the 4 bet and play the streets you have position.

Is there ever a time where when presented with the pf betting that went on anyone is thinking sod the odds and fold once the flop hits because we're miles behind here? 


Sigh.  I've lots to learn about Omaha, no doubt.  But already we're faced with K Q 10 flop and you throw a J in the mix for fun.  Even if we forget the suited flop side of things, I'm still thinking I'm MILES behind here.  People often raise mad with the likes of A K Q J double suited and the like.

Cos has AA pre and AA post.  Nothing more.  I'm genuinely very surprised at the number of people who seem to be married to AAxx pre here.  He's got one great hand and one ok hand but neither helps the other once the flop hits.  And there's a whole lotta hands gonna beat AA in Omaha imo.  I just don't understand the reasoning behind stacking off.

Surely there are times where even despite the odds, it's right to fold.  No?

Fwiw when the turn is a jack we have a straight to the queen.

np, if anyone wants any of my post explaining further I would be happy to oblige, i posted for discussions' sake.

I totally respect and appreciate what you've posted here already but are you serious about the straight to the Q being considered a good hand here?

With all that's on the board K Q 10...then comes J.  89 is good here?  My god.  Wish the bottom end of a straight was good on my tables.

Not trying to take the piss or insult.  Genuinely gobsmacked is all.  Wondering how it matters in any positive way and what your thinking (bar all the fancy maths) is behind that statement.

I wouldn't say it is a good hand, there are obviously still lots of hands villain can have that have us drawing dead. The reason we have to go with it is because we have enough equity with a Qhi straight (we need 29%) to call off/jam the last $160 vs any 4b/call range imaginable. 29% is not a lot in poker.

Don't forget we have two aces in our hand

 ;frustrated; ;nemesis; ;snoopy'sguns;  rotflmfao

Sorry I wasn't saying u were wrong when i sed "Why?" I was just asking :)
I agree 100% with you on the flop.

Personally I think if he jams the turn we have to call off because he has enough sets/2p's and we block braodway pretty decently, coupled with the fact that in our villains mind we jam pretty much EVERYTHING that now makes braodway.
Plus we only need 29% vs his entire range so imo it's a call but I was genuinely interested in what other opinions were out there.

I think this is kind of a short sighted view. We;re trying to make the most profitable desicions as they occur, pre flop we can 5bet and show a profit, he can 6bet shove hands we have +equity vs and he can peel and we'll either stack him or make 3x the money when we win it on the flop, however this is PLO and different board textures can make a HUGE impact on the hand, now on the flop we have a range for the villian (gd KKxx hands/strong DS rundowns/good dbl paired hands, JJTT etc) and this flop smashed that range directly. It would be a mistake to stack off on this flop (as ROb's GCSE math lesson proved) the fact that we've 5bet pre doesnt change this.

In a tournament this would be different ofc.

For those stakes absolutely standard! You havnt really done anything badly wrong either an maybe his call is a bit of a gamble but hes got loads of chips so probaly would get away if he didnt like flop. its plo!

I play more plo comes than cash but I would check flop and shove turn if checked to me, way hand is played your getting called on flop by any 2 pair or set which are very likely in his range on turn he isn't getting odds to make those calls so likely only getting called by jack flush

why did u post results costas?

because he's the fish obv.

He calls every flush at every point of this hand trust me

Was a misatke obv ? i didnt c it anyway ! but thanks for ruining it for us...........

million you didnt see it.

Dunno George.

really didnt m8, was my points useful at all? or u still think im  a fish

I think you're a legend. Your points made sense mate. I think there's a little more to some things than you say though.

Big Charra > everyone else in this thread, except rob whose post really should have been end of thread (although not literally as he did post it "for discussion". However it is pretty definitive). One small correction tho, when called you need to use your equity vs his calling range, not including the 16% hands he folds, so its even more of a check back+fold imo