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Title: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: CardTrainer on December 23, 2010, 05:59:36 AM In some early hand history data analysis experiments dealing with about 1/4 million IRC “no robot holdem” hands played by a couple thousand players from 1988 to 2000, I measured the actual starting hand win rates vs the calculated win odds charts we all consult.
The differences from the calculated odds charts we all consult, reflect player decision making, not some chart calculation error. Crummy looking starting hands actually actually won 1/2 as often as statistics say they should. The lesson learned, players invest more heavily in favorable hands and give up a little too easily on lower odds starting hands. I suspect live pro players do better with low hands. (http://cardtrainer.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/start-hand-odds-chart.jpg) Hand #1 is A-A, #169 is 7-2 off suit Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: Longines on December 23, 2010, 06:31:54 AM Not sure that a small sample size of ten year old data on play money tables is all that relevant to today's game but interesting nonetheless. Were you playing poker on IRC at the time?
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: Rupert on December 23, 2010, 06:36:59 AM what are standing hand odds?
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: Longines on December 23, 2010, 07:09:31 AM Looking at the graph I would suggest it's the odds of the hand winning after a 10-way river showdown.
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: outragous76 on December 23, 2010, 10:01:24 AM JdWas this a new account at the start and have you factored in the run good for the first 1000 hands?
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: gatso on December 23, 2010, 10:02:56 AM why isn't the bit where the red and blue lines cross purple?
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: AlexMartin on December 23, 2010, 11:34:12 AM is this referring to gto? i assume it is, in which case, yeah live pro's would do really well....
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: SuuPRlim on December 23, 2010, 03:27:18 PM The differences from the calculated odds charts we all consult, reflect player decision making, not some chart calculation error. Crummy looking starting hands actually actually won 1/2 as often as statistics say they should. The lesson learned, players invest more heavily in favorable hands and give up a little too easily on lower odds starting hands. I suspect live pro players do better with low hands. ** apologies in advance is this is a bit ranting but im hugely tilted today*** Who learnt this lesson? What is a low hand? and....wtf? Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: AlexMartin on December 23, 2010, 03:28:38 PM The differences from the calculated odds charts we all consult, reflect player decision making, not some chart calculation error. Crummy looking starting hands actually actually won 1/2 as often as statistics say they should. The lesson learned, players invest more heavily in favorable hands and give up a little too easily on lower odds starting hands. I suspect live pro players do better with low hands. ** apologies in advance is this is a bit ranting but im hugely tilted today*** Who learnt this lesson? What is a low hand? and....wtf? i think hes being incredibly shrewd. basically, play more shit and dont fold. if only cardrunners would drop a vid series on this gem. Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: AndrewT on December 23, 2010, 03:58:55 PM Er, you all do realise OP is just a spammer, don't you?
Title: Re: Real starting hand win rate data Post by: SuuPRlim on December 23, 2010, 04:18:15 PM Er, you all do realise OP is just a spammer, don't you? omg wat a terrible day |