blonde poker forum

Good spot to fire again?? If so do I bet enough?

Haven't been at table long but villian seems to be passive/stationy calling pre both in and out of postion on couple of occasions...Haven't seen him go to showdown

I presume pre and flop are fine (?).... I bet turn to fold out 66-99 and Ax which he calls flop with (reasonable?) and because I pick up a flush draw

Thoughts?


PokerStars Game #57225022704: Tournament #405010357, $40+$4 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (500/1000) - 2011/02/06 19:25:57 WET [2011/02/06 14:25:57 ET]
Table '405010357 29' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: T_Mar79 (41254 in chips)
Seat 2: JARULE26 (149184 in chips)
Seat 3: swordfish007 (56933 in chips)
Seat 4: r0xer88 (29243 in chips)
Seat 5: moascht (25288 in chips)
Seat 6: jakkels999 (62326 in chips)
T_Mar79: posts the ante 100
JARULE26: posts the ante 100
swordfish007: posts the ante 100
r0xer88: posts the ante 100
moascht: posts the ante 100
jakkels999: posts the ante 100
swordfish007: posts small blind 500
r0xer88: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to T_Mar79 [Qs 9s]
moascht: folds
jakkels999: folds
T_Mar79: raises 1225 to 2225
JARULE26: calls 2225
swordfish007: folds
r0xer88: folds
*** FLOP *** [td 2s 3c]
T_Mar79: bets 3645
JARULE26: calls 3645
*** TURN *** [td 2s 3c] [4s]
T_Mar79: bets 8745

I don't mind really. You're obv bluffing (semi- bluffing on the turn) but the "Haven't seen him go to showdown" and "to be passive/stationy calling pre" makes me think there's nothing wrong with it here.

Sizing is fine IMO.

yeah, your range from the CO will have a ton of Tx's so no  shortage of legitimate value hands to rep, my only worry would be that stacks might be arkward on the river for a third bullet, so might have to surrender but we got a bunch of equity right now so betting seems ftw.

it looks a great spot to c/jam with the stacks imo your gonna be deep enough to have a chunk of FE and have pretty reasonabe equity vs his calls, the bit about him being a station is a flaw in that plan with no history of him floating or bet folding turns cud be spewy but meh i think thats my favoured line

Bet smaller flop and turn.

2800 on flop, 4800 turn leaves us a lot more wiggle room on the river including the big over shove.

It also means we've only committed 10k if he decides to jam the turn.

As played you're struggling to get such a big stack to fold anything that beats you because he's always getting 2 to 1 on a call.

Not sure about betting less than half pot tbh.. I would never do that with my value hands - also imagine greater chance he calls me down with his marginals that I'm trying to get him off ? It may also induce him to do something crazy on turn which I obv dont want

I was pretty much shutting down on river unless a good scare card came for me or a spade obv

Matt's point is that the stacks are a bit arkward you dont rele have anywhere to go on the river if we brick, betting smaller to fire three might be better although you're way more likely to get hero'd that way, the more I look the mord e i like a c/r stacks are perfect(ish) and its no disaster if it gets checked through

Yeah I appreciate the river is going to be awkward... I didn't contemplate the c/r on the turn at the time but I def like it.  Something that I need to work on is spotting when stacks are good for certain moves - I'm ok with <30bb as most online tourneys are spent grinding these but prob not aware of some of the options available with slightly deeper stacks.... When you say stacks are ideal for for turn c/r  here, what quantifies that? The price he get to call it off ? Are we just aiming to offer <2/1 to make this ideal.... Or is there something else that makes it a good spot with this stack?

Cheers for responses



 

on the turn the pot is like ~6700 and stacks are like 36k effective or something so if he bets like 5k you're jamming for 31k more into ~17k now it makes it impossible for him to call off with the marginals you wanted to fold out on the turn and might even get him of some Tx hands, and when we get called we have decent equity


Board: Td 2s 3c 4s
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    23.782%     25.78%    00.00%               586            0.00   { Qs9s }
Hand 1:    76.218%     74.22%    00.00%              1878            0.00   { 33-22, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 54s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }

no idea what any of that means, but I'd c/r all in as well.

just a rough idea of what kind of shape we'll be in when called, which we have to expect to be sometimes

OK cool.. Just so I can apply same theory to similar situations in future and work out if my stack is good for a particular move.. Is that he's only getting ~1.5/1 to call that is the important bit... If stack sizess meant he was getting 2/1 when I did this, its obv bad, right?

Sry if this sounds basic.. Cheers for responses

not necessarily, your value range gets a LOT tighter with this move, so must of the time his hand becomes a bluff catcher and 2-1 is still often a bad price if you dont have enough feesible bluffs in your range, just REALLY dependson the board texture

dont think so, doesnt improve your percieved range and a tonne of hands in his just improved. deeper i like any double barrel where equity improves, not here though. with a view to setup a river jam (assuming you are a tough table where you need to be making thinner EV plays), i like it, but dont think its necessarily a fantastic spot.