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Really good punting card tonight I think.

Had five bets:

Burnley 4.2 @ Cardiff. Cardiff look totally opposeable after struggling mightily with Scunthorpe. Burnley seem to really be responding to Eddie Howe and the best player in the Championship Chris Eagles finally looks back to his best.

Preston 6.4 @ Watford. Watford finally look to be reverting to the mean. Malky has done a fantastic job with a pretty limited squad, but their results recently have really taken a dive. I would be very surprised if they make the playoffs. Preston are tez, but I rate Phil Brown and although results haven't improved much yet, performances suggest they are really trying for him. Watford are rightly heavy favourites, but I think 1.63 is way too short.

Bristol Rovers 4.2 v Bournemouth. Bournemouth are way way ahead in L1 of where their talent levels suggest they should be. Their squad is wafer thin and they are woefully short of striking options. The collapse is going to come, they are not going to get automatic promotion and i have a feeling they might be surpirsed by Rovers who are playing much better than their results suggest and in Will Hoskins have one the best strikers in the League.

Orient 3.5 @ MK Dons. When are Orient finally going to recognised as the excellent team they obviously are. They score for fun, are really strong at the back and have one the best managers at this level. They were really unlucky not to beatr Brighton a couple of outings ago. MK are obviously very strong at home, but I'm riding the Orient bus until everyone else realises what a good team they are.

Walsall 2.2 v Dagenham. This is my nap. Walsall have suddenly hit form in style. They were desperately unlucky to lose to Bournemouth on Saturday. They are creating tons of chances with Julian Gray being much underrated imo. Alex Nicholls is a good striker too and Jason Price has always scored goals at this level. Dagenham are going nowhere except back down to League 2. Walsall solid odds on favourites with me.

I like Tranmere too, but Jennings is unlikely to play. If he is in the team, 9/4+ is too big.

Norrrrr, :D

Rate the left side of Hartlepool, see what you think Keith, Horwood is a solid left back, and Monkhouse is under-rated I think, always gets a few goals a season for them and does a good shift there.

If Bjornsson plays, try not to laugh. Also, try running alongside Collins for pace, you'll beat him.

Think in general though they've done well not to be in the bottom 4, poor side imo.

You lot been playing too much FM2011?

Yea he couldnt stop in his loan spell with Bradford! Sigh that we had to give him back!!

eagles best player in the championship???????????  lets not get too carried away to justify a selection

When he's playing at the top of his game, I think he is.

Who would you put in front of him?

Craig Bellamy?

Snodgrass of Leeds...watch his goal from  Saturday :) Eagles has been in and out of their team for years, so managers must know he's inconsistent at best,

Apparently he's got asthma, it's the reason for inconsistency.

When he's on song, he was unplayable in the Prmiership, let alone the Championship.

snod for sure.  There are at least two players at cardiff in front of him i would have thought.  Holt/Sinclair. Wouldnt even have said Eagles is certain to be in the team of the year for the championship at the end of the season. 

Love the detailed reasoning for the selections.  You clearly think outside the box and try to see trends happening before they actually do and the oddsmakers react accordingly.  I have backed 4 of your 5 selections on the asian markets prior to seeing your reasoning.

Great bets and reasoning. I'm not sure about Burnley and Orient although I see the value but I think Preston and Bristol Rovers are very decent shouts for the explanations given.

I don't think Eagles will get in Championship team either. He was terrible under Laws.

But the last three matches, he looks right back to his best, he terrorised Watford on Saturday.

I wouldn't play Preston on the Asain lines, good chance they'll get marmalised, better to go for the jackpot and bet them at 11/2.

preston was the only one of your picks i didnt play.

Yeah, something like that I guess...  ;) 

Got Milan -1, Newcastle -1 and walsall

move for under 2.5 goals in the pboro game which doesnt really make sense.  Might be able to get a decent(ish) price the overs tonight.

P boro as expected and 2 up top for Yeovil...

I really like both teams to score in the milan spurs game tonight@10-11.

Milan have an ageing defence and lennon's pace shld petrify-going to have a small fgsr there 2, spurs aren't exactly known for their defensive prowess either.

Also on goals in posh game, saw an interview d ferguson did a week or so bk, he basically admitted they cannot defend and just said they wld have to outscore sides.

Gravy train not over their me thinks.

Gl all.

May perm some of keith's selections as i also like his reasoning, but can't lay out too much tonight as i'd be down the dhs tmrw if i had a nightmare evening!

:)

Got to disagree here.  Anytime Kevin Pullein identifies any angle then the gravy train is well and truly over.  The important thing is what price the bookies make it not what the teams do unless they start doing something massively different and every single football odds compiler worth his salt reads that column 3 or 4 times and makes sure that what is written in there isn't any value the week after.  If anything I think unders will be value going forward.

Do realy love the both teams to score bet in the Spurs game but the weather is worrying me a great deal.

thought the championship games tonight were about as trappy as they come. No real view apart from Preston draw no bet at 3/1 with a free bet
had 1/2 point spurs DNB at 4.3

I totally agree about kp, yet the prices have increased in some cases. I'm well aware the value is in what the bookies do rather than the teams, however it is also worth noting that the manager of the posh side is not exactly trying to curb the leaks, if anything he is encouraging offence. I'd agree if they adjusted somewhat that the books wld have over adjusted and given value to the unders, i just if anything don't think they have reacted enough!

LOL at my completely confusing sentencing their, even i don't get what i'm saying! :)

what did pullien say?  i didnt see the column.  Any link?

layed off at 3, big overreaction here

on spurs dnb

just gone in on swansea at 4/6 to beat donny on saturday

wow nice headbutt on jordan!

Nice of Preston to throw away a two goal lead with 20 minutes to go.

Jobcentre it is....so many close shaves and a nice sweat or 2 esp in the last 5 mins in posh game, oh well least spurs won and the jordan-gatusso clash at the end was unreal!

Nice headbutt.  Gattso wouldn't have lasted 10 seconds if it was in the back.

Nice tips Keith, thank you.  Sorry the Preston one didn't come in for you, would have been a lovely scoop.  I chickened out on that one and just laid Watford so got a bit lucky!

i love harry redknapp, cant wait till he is the england boss

Really good match in difficult conditions. One of the windiest games I've ever been to.

Horwood has a really sweet left foot and his free kick which was touched onto the bar to create the first goal was the highlight.

I was more impressed with Sweeney on the right than Monkhouse, although that might have been because Charlton's left back, Fry, was shocking.

In fact, Charltons defence was poor as a whole. Docherty and Dailly have their best days way behind them and will both need replacing if Charlton are to go up next season (on this showing they have no chance of finishing above Brighton and Southampton).

I'm surprised Abbott can get a game with Charlton, he was shocking. He was ok for Darlo a couple of years back, but is totally found out at this level.

Ecclestone was class though, he'll go far, great first touch and good awareness and finish for the Charlton goal.

Wright-Phillips looka bit disinterested tbh and they really missed Racon.

Goiod game all round, and beer is only £2 a pint.

he was 5th choice striker up to the weekend when 2 injuries in training and another in the first half saw him brought on at half time. he then put in the best individual performance I've seen in a charlton shirt in the last couple of years, he was immense and pretty much won the game single handed. there is a superb player in there somewhere, it's just very, very rarely seen. still probs 5th choice

dailly and doc will need replacing even if we stay at this level

swansea cut to 4/7 by all bar paddy power expect 1/2 on matchday

Gattuso is so com.

Just as an afterthought to yesterday's game.

Really Charlton could be Peterbrough Jr. As long as Abbott isn't playing, I can goals galore in their matches for the rest of the season. Their defence looks old and slow while going forward Reid, Ecclestone, BWP and Benson (?) will always have chances and hopefully goals in them.

Really 4/7 Carlton/Posh being over 2.5 last week was the bet of the season.

To back that up, I saw them at Sheff Wed a month ago, albeit the game before Powell took charge, 2-2 and could have been plenty more.

put in the 2 guys who picked up knocks last week and you have wagstaff, anyinsah, bwp, eccleston, reid. doubt there's ever been a quicker group of 5 at this level and they're all good players/finishers. add in jackson who is I think the 2nd top scorer in league 1 behind bwp and you see why charlton are top scorers away from home, it's great to watch when this lot are in full flow, just wish it happened more often