blonde poker forum

A new player asked me for opinion on the following hand, trouble is I never play 25NL Rush, so I told them that I wasn't familiar with the games, but I would be calling.  Question for you lot is: "What % of the time is Hero's hand good here, given the game format?"

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG ($6.16)
UTG+1 ($5.96)
Hero (MP1) ($32.66)
MP2 ($22.27)
MP3 ($75.30)
CO ($38.15)
Button ($34.83)
SB ($25)
BB ($55.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4d, 4c
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 2 folds, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 4h, 3d, 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, CO calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

River: ($9.35) Qd (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $24.35, Hero folds

Total pot: $19.35 | Rake: $0.96

Notes:

25 NL Rush, villian is 12/6 over 67 hands
 aggression is 1.00

Cant fold, not even in rush

Not that frickin nitty

It really, really sucks. I don't think a player at 25nl rush will be trying to get you to fold aces here, although I would be bluff jamming rivers like this alotttt at 200/400nl fr rush.

I think the turn bet should definitely be bigger btw.


I probably do a fold now.

no way

he can easily have 23 34 A3  silly AQ's  - and furthermore the only hands we lose to are 99 33(really?) and QQ (which he never has)

so we lose to 99 - and you fold?

I just dont see him with many 3's in his range, I think he quick folds almost 100% of them. If you're going for the line of meh its25nl then you should just call anyway as he's clicking buttons. I coach someone at 25nl rush actually and this would be such a sick spot. Calling is obviously NEVER bad, but I think its good (or at least good that he can) fold as too many regs at micros just call and chalk it off as a cooler when its clear they are beat.

I think the biggest problems are the bet sizings, I'd bet bigger on turn and bigger on river. Actually looking closer when you bet 1/2 pot on river maybe you have to snap it off. When I bet smaller on rivers like this with such hand strength it is usally with the intention of inducing. I prefer about $3.80 on turn and $8.50ish on the river.

You never ever ever ever ever fkin fold this.

yeh but the poor bet sizing only adds to the chance that this is a bluff by villain

folding here is terrible, its a cash game vs an unknown. ok villain probs has 33 and thats why its been posted - but thats what we call a cooler

Patrick 'aftertimingO1' Leonard.

aftertiming what? everybody else said fold and we havn't seen villains hand?

hero folded innit.

terrible innit

Well we are beting 0 of his value range if he is indeed a nit, but we haz a full house and are proff of zeebos thereom innit.

so you dont jam a 3?

I don't have a 3.

your arguements are terrible

Why is it terrible? If somebody is nitty they don't peel 3's in rush. They just fold. When he jams the river the only missed draws are 56s and thats a tiny range. He could potentially turn some kind of 9 into a bluff but its alotttt more likely he has 99/qq than 56s.

so you think a nit doesnt play any 3's but yet doesnt 3 bet QQ nor raise any street?

therefore you lose to 99 and yet you still fold

wp sir

which brings me back to the original question.... what % of the time is it good?

When asked why I would call, I simply said that given the betting, I would have to be sure I was folding a losing hand at least two thirds of the time to be happy.  In real time, I would just shrug call, without going into any maths, just expecting not to be beaten that often that I could ever fold it.

Are we good half the time here?

No, qq could very eaily peel pre and play it the same. I don't see why he would raise any street. If I had qq I would play it exactly the same way.

I don't know why you're getting all bitchy in your posts towards me? It's PHA and supposed to be discussion, I'm saying what I think and you are saying my arguements are terrible and wp sir etc etc, I can post a graph of me playing 400nl rush if you like but I will probably get lolsamplesized or something.

I generally like your posts on the forum but you seem to have it in for me on recent PHA threads when I'm just saying my honest opinion if you think I am so "terrible" etc then please say why and help me ratehr than being insulting. I can take it but new people coming to the forum who post one or two what you deem "terrible" posts could be really easily offended, especially if they havn't met you (I havn't met you) and you could discourage them from posting.

x

Im not having a go at you Mr Leno - but the arguements that you are using here (in this thread) do not strike me as those of a thinking cash player who plays quite a bit (which I believe you do)

Nits do not play QQ that way in rush. If they arent 3 betting, they call pre to see no A and K and then they play to get the money in on the flop (most of the time) or turn - not wait to fill up on the river. The reason they are nits is because they are inherently scared and there is no fear on this board for them.

Therefore in using your own arguements about 3's - it leaves exactly 1 hand that we lose to, and therefore that makes long term folding terrible.

Now turning to Simons point. We are good so much of the time here we just cant fold. The villain could show me 1 card - and it could be a 9 and I am still not folding.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree with this, raising qq on the flop would be very bad and I would play it exactly the same (which I believe to be 100% optimal)

what about the times you dont stack TT JJ AK?  (not wanting to derail the thread)

You don't stack these hands though. They all fold. Either on the flop or by the time you've shoved the river.

not even close. call. over-analyse a standard spot afterwards. pls dont go all 2+2 on me blonde, some hands are just not meant to be

Phew. ty

Pads, stop fkin levelling imo :)

Amen

I'm never folding
 

The fact that anyone is thinking of folding here makes me ROFLMYMFHO!!

yer i posted itt that i would call, initially i didnt look at bet sizings but think that it is still v.likely we are beat.

care to point that bit out?

95% of hands on PHA are ones that lose.

We folded rivarrrrr though so we'll never know.

Meant that if I did this  bet sizing I would probably call it off.

on skype to a very good fr rush player who has crushed all these limits..

[17:42:01] vonki: I probably say fold is good
[17:42:57] vonki: most of the time, probably like 85%+ of the times he will be beat in general, vs this opponent...probably more so
[17:43:34] Patrick Leonard: everybody thinks im crazy for wanting to fold
[17:44:31] vonki: well lets say villain is me
[17:44:52] vonki: the only time I raise this river, is when I have a set =)
[17:45:04] vonki: i dont bluffraise here, and I dont turn anything into a bluff ^^
[17:45:26] Patrick Leonard: yeh
[17:45:39] Patrick Leonard: against me id call, because id turn hands like 98s into a bluff here
[17:45:45] vonki: his size is kind of odd but imo thats also an indicator that he puts you all in because he knows you will only call a monster too, and has you beat
[17:45:47] Patrick Leonard: but against std fr rush nit
[17:46:10] vonki: esp a NL25 nit =)

[17:47:40] vonki: why is this guy saying he wont ever have QQ?
[17:47:57] vonki: Id probably flat QQ there quite often
[17:47:59] vonki: pre that is
[17:48:04] vonki: and play it like this
[17:48:14] Patrick Leonard: yeh
[17:48:17] Patrick Leonard: i agree

etc

easy fold imo

he cant have 99 as he wouldnt raise the river with 99 in case you had QQ or 33
he cant have QQ as he would fold on the flop or turn in case you had AA KK or a set

so he has 33 100% of the time

shouldn't this be in the learning centre?

 ;applause;

nice post from all of your rush experience alex.

dont need to be a rush expert to know this is a fold. I'd fold in a HU hyperturboSNG with 20bbs.

Only one man can answer about how nitty these games are and that's mcnitus.

This. Hence why I call.

Folding can be such a huge mistake, and calling cant ever be a mistake, so I call and it doesn't matter if tthis specific billain has me beat 95% of the time

This is never a fold no matter how nitty the game is.

When somebody is NEVER raising worse for value and has a very low aggresion rating how can this NEVER be a fold. I've posted response from person who's crushed the game over 50k hands at this limit and above. Guess we'll agree to disagree.

you can crush 25NL without being a superstar. Doesn't mean he is flawless or that because he says one thing that it is correct. Tons of different people crush tons of different games - the regs still disagree over things.

those saying lol call arent looking at the hand.....

list the hands he does this with that we beat, list the hands he does this with that we lose too then stove it.....

i do think nits have 33 here sometimes, not a lot but sometimes....
also they have 99 here SOMETIMES.....
and can def have qq here a reasonable percent

what bluffs does a 12/10 have here.... if u guys dont think he can peel 33 he cant peel 56s or almost any 9x's that arent 99...... that doesnt leave many "bluffs", aa/kk is prolly putting more money in pre with aa/kk

when nits are gonna nit..... folding to this line is not out of the equation....

in game i prolly call cos i dont have 15 mins to analyse it, however that doesnt make it optimal