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50/1 DTD. Villain is a young chinese lad who knows the game, is a bit nitty, but with big leaks, plays fairly passive vs me and likes to hero call. He's playing £150, I cover.

 Aspades Ks UTG I raise to £5, one call UTG+1 he' s UTG+2 and makes it £21, folds round. I raise to £52. He'll be 3betting 99+ and AK in this spot imo. Nothing I crush. I really expect him to fold or jam here so when he flats I expect him to be massive.
 
 Jh 8d 3d check check
 Qs check check
 4c

Line check on pre, and all 3 streets?

if he only 3bets 99+/ak why are we 4betting?

If you expect him to fold or shove, you're effectively turning your hand into a bluff?

When he calls, you think/know he has you, so you check it down? 

What's the thinking behind the £52 raise?

The reasons for that raise seem kinda spewy. It almost soundss like you're "raising to see where you're at"...

you're raising to snap a shove off surely, abso fine

but please cbet this flop

For how much?

Villain has put in £52 leaving £98 back into a pot of £105.

Id be pretty surprised if someone 3betting 99 isnt also 3betting AQ.

However if u do assign villain 99+/AK and say he folds 99-JJ to a 4bet and stacks off with the rest then ur folding out 18 combos in his 3bet range and getting stacks in vs 21.

46.15% of the time we win all the dead moneys = £32.50
53.85% of the time we get in vs AK/QQ+ where we have 41.90% vs that range. Pot £306 we win on average £128.22 from here, from the extra £145 we have to put in, so if we get it in result for us is -£16.78

0.4615*32.5 - 0.5385*16.78 = +£5.96 so with our assumptions 4betting is fine. We gain a lot of equity from the times he makes equity mistakes by folding pairs. Its pretty awkward to call this hand oop and its going to be pretty difficult to get any money in postflop when we are ahead (or to bluff him off any better hands). If it comes Axx or Kxx its going to scare the hands we now beat (QQ-99) unless he has a set in which case gg money. If it doesnt come Axx or Kxx were now certainly behind or chopping according to the range we assigned and he wont be folding pairs in 3bpots on these boards, and will prob end up bluffing us off it if its a chop.

That being said with your description he is probably 3 betting even tighter than this imo (esp UTG+2, vs UTG open), and if he is really nitty/passive id probably just fold to the 3bet.

Now hes flatted its gay but bet/call that flop probably.

^^^ sooooooooooooper

anyone that even hints at 4bet folding is getting a slap :p

oh yeeahhhhhhh

i'd prolly bet £37 and call, or JAM, I just dont see much merit to seeing a turn card here

depends who the chinese guy is

if its tom i am jamming it in his eye and then tell him have a shave

if its a normal chinese guy i am jamming it in his face

[ ] i am good at cash

4bet/fold face up.

Then say "Don't mess with me young un, mines a corona from back of the fridge"

Unless they are parsleys , then snap get it in.

finally some actual analysis ITT, I dont know wtf Stato was trying to say in his post

That post is actually terrible in so many ways. Looks good tho.

Given your assumptions, flatting pre >> 4bet-calling, although I would say your assumptions seem unlikely to be true. That said, with these specific stacks, bet sizes and relative positions, I think a flat works pretty well a lot of the time so would still advocate that over 4betting.

As played pre, shove the flop or bet 1/3rd and call it off, whichever you think is more likely to get folds from better hands. In live poker I'd imagine it's the shove.

As played, check river and hope for a showdown and half the pot.

i fold pre,

4betting, our range is so face up and we are near the bottom of what he will perceive our range as being.

no money invested and a some consideration should be given to the fact that the pot isn't yet hu. I also think the 3betting range you assign him is too wide.


flatting maybe has merits in that it may entice the initial raiser to make really bad peels. 

Lol @ fold pre.

On the flop its a check swallow imo rather than bet/call or anything else.

lol @ lol....

its only a 3bet utg+2 by a passive nit.

lets make live superstar negraneu esque reads on the flop also and outmaneuver him with a classic feel play because its so lol obvious.

poker is lol, quoting needs lol.lol.lol. lol.lol

Fold pre is too tight tho to be fair. I think you may have misread the hand history as you say we have "no money invested" and refer to enticing the initial raiser to do something. I agree that if we were in the small blind here then fold pre would be probably the best line, would be painful tho

passive nit that 3-bets 99 when we raise utg.

[  ] folding AK here.

oh yer i did mis read the hh or fogot what happened when i advocated folding initially. the fact that we're going to be out of position makes me want to fold even more.

dont know how someone who will 3bet 99 here is described as playing a passive and nitty style. i think you either have his range wrong or have labelled him incorrectly because these things seem polar opposites to me.

[quote author=TheFallen link=topic=52538.msg1340715#msg1340715
dont know how someone who will 3bet 99 here is described as playing a passive and nitty style. i think you either have his range wrong or have labelled him incorrectly because these things seem polar opposites to me.
[/quote]

exactly! Hence my post

I meant passive post flop. He likes to pot control, check back scary turns with overpairs when he should be betting etc. Perhaps doesnt 3b 99 but TT+he does. More likely to 3b 99 vs me because he knows I'll open much wider than normal UTG.

i'm assuming this hand is 10 handed and not 6 or something.  this would change the best play drastically.  no one 3 bets a range of 99+ AK.  call or fold pre are both fine, but given the guy is a calilng station i'd call and stack his ass.  4 bet getting in pre is going to be a pretty decent sized mistake if he's a nit IMO, esp with his postflop leaks

I 4b to get him to fold 99-JJ because if I flat, as someone said, I'm not getting paid on Axx or Kxx vs 99-QQ. If I 4b/call I may get him to fold those hands.

James, Dave, why are we bet/calling 1/3 pot? This betsize looks kind of weak right? Instinctively I'd shove or a 2/3pot bet.

I'm putting him on JJ+/AK here so how can I expect him to ever fold on this flop? The only hand he may fold is AK and TT. When he checks back twice I know he doesn't have JJ, QQ, KK, AA so its just AK and TT. Thoughts on a river barrel?

Rupert, I've seen him flat my button open from the SB with AQsuited, and 3bet TT UTG+2 vs me. I think my range is accurate.

Also James, what is wrong with Stato_1s post?

If you are going to bet anything other than shove is obviously absolutely horrendous given ur read that he never has worse. At least he might fold better/same to a shove, inducing with 6 outs is beyond retarded

foldddddd pre, sometimes you gotta do it.

If he folds so wide when you 4 bet, do you 4 bet here often with air?

It's live, I've never really been in this spot before vs this opponent. I don't think we can say he folds so wide when I 4bet. His 3bet range is narrow and I had expected him to fold maybe 1/3 - 1/2 of it (99-JJ). But given the results of this hand I don't ever expect him to 3bet fold vs me.

peeling 3bet >>>>> folding imo

not sure about peeling vs 4betting

if hes not 3betting Kx/Ax then calling pre is bad with stack and pot ratios, he 3bet to 25x, online he would 3bet to 11-14x so could soemtimes be justfied, but here i dont like it.

If you're 4 betting cos he folds JJ-99 then I'd say he's folding pretty wide

I have to admit to being really lost on this hand. I don't know what I should do pre and I don't know why people are saying bet/call on the flop when I think he has JJ+ maybe AK and TT  too. I don't know why a post from Stato which makes perfect sense to me is +1d by Lildave but called terrible by James mfudging keys.

 >:(

U have an Ace and a King.

Things don't much get it simpler. Just get it in pre. Make it 92 instead of 52 pre.

I think both peeling and 4betting pre are reasonable. Given the postflop read that he likes a hero and his range should be fairly strong 3betting UTG from UTG+2 or w/e, im unlikely to put another dime in the pot.

The hand is simple, you have told us the following information- he 3bets 99+ and AK, never AQ- when he calls your 4bet you said he is super strong. Which means AA/KK. SO what is there to discuss? As long as his 5bet shoving range is wider than his cold calling our 4 bet range, and he occasionally 3bet folds 9 s T s etc then 4bet getting it in is fine and check folding postflop when he coldcalls is obviously fine.

Next hand

Results?

But I don't make it 92 with AA/KK/QQ super exploitable to have different 4bet sizes for AK and AA/KK. NB: It's fine vs random live players tho, but this guy knows me and knows I wouldn't make it 92 with AA/KK.

Yeh Sorry.

My post was a level.

[X] owned sigh

results when keys/stato/dave post again. oh and Dr.Morgan ITT please.

Missed a chance to bat you with my levelling stick here.

I could have gone all Shaun King on you too and discussed the merits of making it 92 pre then folding.

FFS

I think it's abso fine to 4bet call

But I think we have to bet/call or jam this flop, agree with Keys Jam might be better, although If you thin he has any AQ spazzes in him bet £37 and snap him off.

I woud never fold to 3bet, I think that has to be burning equity.

given Live people's parchant for peelign A7 and K8 kind of hands there might be a lot of credit to peeling the 3ball and playing a pot 3way with a PSR of like 2.5 or w/e it is.

I honestly think I'm happier getting it in pre, with our fold equity and the presence of 99-QQ/AQ in his range we do ok enough of the time (cba maths-ing it up)

I wouldn't fallen for that one so don't worry.

Why are we betting calling the flop vs JJ/QQ/KK/AA???!?! He won't spaz with AK or AQ.

No need for a thread then really? I mean if you are sure of ur read then just go with it- we can only comment on what information we are given anyway as i said

Yeh delete the thread. Alex is a noob

I was check/folding flop and turn yeh. By the river once he's checked twice I can put him exactly on TT/99 or AK with close to 100% certainty. Can I rep anything with a river shove/barrel?

You said he has a Super Strong range and likes to hero call postflop. Probably not a good time to be checking down and betting rivers?

lol yeh  ;booboo;

we have a PSB back and surely SOME EQUITY

we could possibly make him fold 99/TT and AK and when we get it in vs QQ and KK that kinda sucks, but i think it's burning money to leave our boys out there.

4betting pre, and chkingit down here seems very odd.

He has implied that his cold call 4betting range is possibly stronger than his 5bet shoving range and thus at the top of his tight 3 betting range. If his 3betting range is 99+ and AK, then it dont leave much other than AA KK. That was how i read the opening post anyway. As played it doesnt look like that but he has then added that villain likes to hero call. Basically if u read op carefully u cant do anything other than suggest its correctly played. Obviously thats all based on ops reads tho, and im sure id just ship flop because id have different ranges assigned than OP has given villain

Agree with dave about his peeling of a 4-bet range being rly tight. More to the point, noone ever flats ak anymore so he can't be peeling with this right?

I flat AK loads.

It's just ace high

Yeah I always just ship flop tbh, bet/call was a bad shout from me.

Stato's post is technically all correct and logically fine (as I'd expect from the word wizard) but his conclusion is farcical. How anyone could think that +6bbs is an acceptable result when we have AKs* and 31bbs in the pot already is beyond me.

*edit: vs 2 wide(ish) ranges

I expected him never to peel for 1/3 of his stack - thought he was better than that.

He showed up on the river with TT

Ffs. You are playing a china man. Put em all in the same box. Love to gamble and 8 is their lucky number. Chinese don't ever hero call. Whe
N they make what appears to be a hero call the only word going through their head is gamble. If he has any hand you are beating he would have had a gamble to take the pot off you all ready. Don't need to understand the marks here just your opponent

hang on wait? we're we 4bet folding?

we just can't not bet the flop imo, we're buring money

yup /thread imo

Poshboy what happened?

Big +1 to dubai really

We have 44% equity vs his range pre coupled with the fact that he likes to hero so we can value by checking Axx and Kxx flops and having him hero with his pocket pair on later streets

If he likes to hero I don't think he's ever folding 99/TT to a flop jam on Jxx

If he folds all of his AK hands then he calls the flop jam with 27 combos of the 36 he can have so folds 25% of the time

By jamming the flop we're betting £98 and we win £110.50 25% of the time and we have 25.2% equity 75% of the time

0.25*110.50+0.75(25.5*110.5) = 27.625+20.88 = Flop bet of £96 has EV of £48.51 - yuck!

Makes the flop an easy check/fold even when he folds all of his chops which he may not do with backdoor diamonds

Pretty tired so not sure if the maths is 100% accurate but its probably close enough to correct to be sure that c/f is the correct play if your given reads are correct

================================

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  35,640  games     0.028 secs     1,272,857  games/sec

Board: Jh 8d 3d
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    25.173%     13.49%    11.68%              4809         4162.50   { AsKs }
Hand 1:    74.827%     63.15%    11.68%             22506         4162.50   { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ, JcJd, JcJs, JdJs, TT-99, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcKd, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd }


---

 267,119,424  games     0.306 secs   872,939,294  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    43.998%     33.52%    10.48%          89535432     27990666.00   { AKs }
Hand 1:    56.002%     45.52%    10.48%         121602660     27990666.00   { 99+, AKs, AKo }


---

^^^^ I just don't buy the reads in the OP, sorry Alex xxx

The read that he'll 3bet 99 but not AQ? Its truuuu!

well i spose I trust highly in your abilities so if you say so, therefore I'm not required in this specific thread, me personally I just get it in OTF here as it just works in my head to do that, perhaps in this exact spot your line is perfect which it may well be.

River barrel sure was profitable

Oh yh river barrel is terrible no matter what we do with his range. play better pls :)

its a chinaman. jack scares him ... queen makes it worse... but you cant represent them coz there are two tens left left in the pack. he snaps the river coz he has a bowl of rice invested. wp chinaman lol

He snaps the river cos Alex has made his hand look SO MUCH LIKE ACE KING that if it was me in the hand I'd prolly think it's the last hand he could have lol

lol. piss off. snaps the river coz he has 10 10.... he never at any point thinks what alex has

i just folded ak pre with 15 bigs

http://www.pokerhand.org/?6046184

its far harder to do on line than live. due to the fuck it factor

you serious ? folding ak live is soooooooooooooo painful!!!

i'm just showing how tez i play paul. last thing i want to do is win a comp were i had to win 10 flips just to make the final. its bad for my heart

as an aside, reasons for 4betting small (if you do elect to?). the positions and  eff stacksizes, coupled with his sizing is pretty interesting.

go on....

Pre flop flat the 3 bet almost always in this specific spot. 
Reasons being hes passive and you are too deep.  Also when you flat your hand is somewhat disguised as a lot of players dont expect you to flat with AK.
Check/fold any flop that doesnt hit our hand.  If the guy likes to hero call you and you know he has a hand like 99+ then id donk bet 3 barrel any Ace high/King High flop. 
Folding pre is bad as you are effectively folding the top of your range.

Once you do 4 bet and get called im check giving up the flop i think.  When you get to the river i like the shove versus a thinking player to get them off a chop/fold 1010 but if the guy as you said likes hero calling dont shove in this particular spot.

Decent points but slightly counter intuitive imo. The problem we have with AKs here is that our immediate equity is very high even vs such a reportedly tight 3betting range. If we flat and c/f most flops we are burning our pre-flop equity and never get to realize it.

If we flat, to try spike vs the lower part of his apparently tight 3betting range then we will struggle for value being OOP, and again don't really realize the value of our hand.

OTF in this spot with the money dead in there we don't even need to get him to fold TT hardly EVER to find profit in a jam imo

Don’t get wrong my default play with ak is probably to 4 bet but my default play in this particular situation is to flat.
3 bet is coming from a strong position from a passive player.  When passive players raise they are usually strong, when they 3 bet then the alarm bells start ringing in my head.

My question would be why am I 4 betting? 
Will opponent call with a worse hand?  Well we have him on a strong range but we are discounting aq somewhat (according to Alex).  So its unlikely he calls with worse.
Will he fold better?  Our read is he likes to hero call so again id say no.
Will he fold a hand that has good equity versus our hand – maybe although somewhat unlikely.
Is the pot big enough to win here and now?  Given stack to pot ratios id say no.
Is there benefit to 4 betting so that our range remains nutted?  Somewhat although from the reads it doesn’t seem like he’ll give us a huge amount of credit and I imagine its going to pretty hard to get him to fold a better hand on a board with no A and no K.
Will he 5 bet bluff/shove AQ – According to our reads no as he’s passive and doesn’t have AQ here that often.
Will it be good for metagame purposes to 4 bet here?  Some benefit to this as it makes us harder to play against than someone who just 4 bets AA/KK/QQ.  But in this case I don’t necessarily think we think villain is that much of a deep thinking player/this spot wont come up often enough for it to be valid.

When he just calls the 4 bet I don’t think we lose that much but when he ships it in pre and we call we are in bad shape (maybe around 40% equity versus his range).


Will calling the 3 bet make my hand look face up?
Don’t think so you could still have anything in this spot from JJ to 56s.
If I call the 3 bet is he likely to barrel me off the best hand?  Given hes passive and likes to pot control and we think he has a good hand then no.
Can I get him to call when I have the best hand?  The guy likes to hero call so I think we can donk into him and get minimum one call out of him – maybe three streets if we size our bets suspiciously enough.
Will I get to see free cards?  As opponent sometimes checks back then yes sometimes you will and our hand will often benefit from seeing more cards.
Can we outplay opponent post flop?  Probably yes as we have him on a reasonably tight range of hands and we have some reads on tendencies.

As played on the flop its close but I just never think hes folding a better/same hand.  Versus this range we have about 25% equity.  Also when we check (as actually happened) he doesn’t always bet and we get to see free cards.

The massive preflop equity of +6bb when there are 31bbs in the pot already and 150bbs behind? Preflop our equity is marginal, but by flatting we disguise our hand, we pretty much always get at least a cbet on the flops we hit (and live players cbet big) and he may barrel off. Personally I'm never donking out into the raiser as Keith says, this doesn't achieve anything except narrowing the range we get value from, we're never inducing a passive player to raise but even nits know how to cbet when they miss. If they do check it back when we hit, we can check or bet the turn and are likely to get one street because they're going to know how weak they look and we've already said they like to make hero calls.

My point being that we have the equity preflop, and it will most likely be damaged down the streets - at least 4b calling we get to realize it and can't really make any mistakes

Wow really? Time to give up poker if you think you can make any mistakes with this hand postflop.

GG Dave. U had a good run

 Aspades Ks = AIP.

 He has AA we river a flush.... he has KK we river an ace..... he has 1010 the board runs qq2jj. 5 cards pleasse, AIP.

Poker is simples

You should order more skips that aren't delivered on time imo.

Post more!

I donk lead a favourable flop because we think villain has a hand like 1010/JJ  he checks back a lot if all of these hands on say a k42 flop but will always call at least one street if we bet.  If we check he bets and we call then he knows we have something - but if we donk donk donk we could in his mind conceivably have air

Mondeoman, you almost think on my level, not far off. Wp

we call, flops  Th 6h 4d he cbets with AQ we fold. = mistake in my books

was great whilst it lasted, see ya guys :(

mind you i spose if AQ is the actual rock bottom of his range folding wouldn't be much of a mistake.....

he never shows up with aq appaz

This, but if he does have AQ in his range then


This.

Also if we say he can have some dominated hands in his range pre, then it's reasonable to assume he's 3bet-folding them, so vs this part of his range preflop our equity from a 4bet is +31bbs, where by calling we

1) lose 16bbs when we both miss and we check fold (71%)
or
2) win 155bbs when we both hit the 2 outer top pair (12%)
3) win 31bbs plus a cbet (around £30) when we hit our 3 outer top pair and they miss (17%)

percentages are approximate, but that would put our ev from flatting at -11.36 + 18.6 + 10.37 = +17.61bbs. Obviously this is a massive oversimplification, but I think the final number is close enough, all the complicating factors such as our flush draw, the times when our opponent flops 2pr vs our 1 pair, the times we don't get one more bet etc will roughly cancel out I think.

So, against dominated hands preflop, if they are in his range, we still win significantly when we flat and only slightly less than we win by 4betting. Coupled with how much better we do against his stacking range preflop (do a similar analysis to the above but with villain's hand as KK or AA) I think it's not close. Bear in mind that this is the first time ever on this forum that I have advocated peeling a 3bet pre OOP, when usually I am the only one arguing for an aggressive line pre (see the AJ vs lolufold hand off skypoker that homer posted a couple of months ago), that should tell you how strong I feel the merits of a flat are in this particular case. Most of the time 4betting OOP is hugely better than peeling because of the information disadvantage we usually have against some aggressive opponent that is 3betting a range of hands in position. In this instance we know enough about the villain to be reasonably sure their range is not merged (to the extent that it contains suited connectors or any hands that he would otherwise fold to the open rather than flat) so we are able to play the hand pretty well postflop despite our positional disadvantage.

No way we ever get 3 streets from tens on K or A high, but we almost definitely get 1 street even when he checks back, by betting the turn or checking again and betting the river. I think we're more likely to get 1 street the passive way anyway; when we donk out, especially if we have a tough/aggressive image, villain is likely to fold on the flop anticipating that the hand is only going to get more difficult even if he's ahead (which if you really think about it he can't be).

Lock this thread

Im sold. Someone get my call button

Sickos ITT what are you talking about?! Don't scare em away dubai, god forbid the skip arrives and takes mondeoman's attention. Or skol super nears the 1k post mark and gets frightened...

Think villian as described (hero) may pay Alex off on 3 streets esp with his aggro image (I assume u have a fairly aggro image?)

Pretty sure Dubai is saying I'm full of shit to be honest, I wasn't sure whether my post was total bollocks or not but I was just trying to quantify the way the hand is going to play out when we flat and how it's good for us, better than 4betting anyway. In fact vs villain as described who has 99+ AK most of my post is irrelevant apart from the last line, we know enough about our opponent to play well oop if we flat so no need to 'cash in' our meagre equity preflop.

^Dubai just saying pointless thread, op had it solved with reads then every one comes on overcomplicating a simple spot.

This needs more love.

Obviously was saying this. Stop getting offended Keys just cos i told u the last stuff you posted was drivel :)