blonde poker forum

This spot is from a while ago. Played in the DTD £300 Deepstack. Alot of dynamics to the hand so will try to explain as best I can.

Blinds 400/800/100

UTG raises to 1800 (30k stack). UTG is very capable, but also very very loose aggro. Raised alot of hands in the last orbit, had alot of battles with UTG+1 and a bit pot is coming.

UTG+1 flats out of 23k. See above. This is Jim Moult, and been having alot of battles with UTG

UTG+2 flats out of 40k. Bingo Bill. Dying to get in a hand as hes been unable because of the fireworks at the other end of the table.

Hero is Highjack with  9d 7d playing 25k. Your line here?

I have a very tight image, so can probably get squeezes through. All 3 players in the pot have wide ranges. However, we want to play this hand multiway with the current dynamics. Pretty sure this is a flat, but should be be squeezing?

I chose to flat for the above reason

BB calls out of 50k stack.

Flop:  9h Ad Tc (pot ~10k)

UTG leads for 3800.

Folds to hero. Your action? Reasons? Chose to flat here as we have alot of backdoor draws and could have the best hand/TID on the turn vs villains wide range.


Rest of the hand is pretty obvious, so just want views on Post/Flop lines.

Sorry its long, Wanted to get the dynamics in

Folding pre imo

Don't flat pre, we're not deep enough and we're gonna get in trouble a bunch.

Don't mind a 3-bet with a specific read that they are v v likely to all fold but not sure this is the right spot. Bookie for example isn't flatting so early without a hand and you (young punk) will look like you're squeezing.

Jim had been VERY active up to this point. Been in alot of pots with not even marginal holdings against UTG (obv different positions)

Quite funny that CraigBetts is reading this. Hes UTG in tihs hand and I got very lucky :$

even more reason to fold pre if jim is in a mood to eyeball you

I was posting a reply about my dyamics on the hand, though I will leave the thread to evolve before I post my thought process.

Fold pre, fold flop

job done

+1

though in the moment, I'd always do neither

I probably flat pre cos I love 97 esp. when it's suited (big fave hand leak)

But I deffo fold flop even with backdoors. Just a spew

Calling pre is at best optimistic as is continuing after that
You only have 30 bigs

i dont mind a flat if there going crazy post and its a double up if u hit the flop hard
but you havent smashed it on the flop so i fold


probs fold pre as a default line against ppl with no info


are you not ment to be a nit?

It's good advertisement ;).

Is this not even remotely close? Surprised everones so sure. I'm aware we're quite shallow but i honestly felt if I caught a decent part and I got get in the middle of it I got get stacks in.

Would like to hear craigs view. Hopefully won't get torn up so bad :).

You are justifying your involvement because of the table dynamics but the table dynamics will be the same next hand and the hand after that. You could get involved with every hand you're dealt and hope to flop two pair or better but this is a sure way to spew your chips off. With everybody wanting to get involved in big pots as you say your post flop FE for making moves is gonna be low and your chances of having the best hand often enough to continue are also low. What is the advantage for you here? That you could flop something big? Too shallow for that thought process imo.

As stated if I was sat in JK's seat I do a fold pre. Calling in this spot is obv a leak and going to lead to a few tricky decisions post flop. The 3 bet is just not an option with the table dynamic as they were, a diff table and players then theres no doubt this is a possibility. (Bingo never knew where the fold button was!)

Moving it on... JK elects to do a call on the A, 10, 9 flop (setting something up)! Question for JK is...Post flop do you think I am leading into the two behind me without hitting the flop?

The turn produces the action and a new line of thought! This obv opens it up to debate.

I know I butchered this hand FWIW. I was just so sick of not getting in pots and being card dead. Went from double average to average hardly playing a hand in like 2 levels.

I always knew this was pretty spewy, but didn't realise it was so much so

you are playing a comp that is full of idiots (imo 90% are idiots) who have just got their £1500 salary into their bank accounts last week and are taking the same shot as they do every month without much chance of cashing. its still early days in the comp and although some of them go out on the first level there are still plenty left. these idiots are going out of this comp hitting top pair top kicker and shrugging their sholders saying to their mates "its so sic". calling an utg raise and two callers (one idiot and one capable) is suicide with these type of hands. you are relying far too much on the luck element because as sure as eggs are eggs you aint getting anyone off a hand if they hit any part of the flop. 3 betting in position is more profitable than the call but why would you play the hand as a pure gamble. behind pre flop. behind on the flop.you obv get paid off hitting a miracle here but to get paid you have to have found the correct type of customer.

In a cash game playing deep I don't mind flatting pre and on the flop but here you are just taking too speculative line.

I think Mantis makes a good point and tbf you have the best seat on the table.

Being OOP to Mr Moult for 7 hours was fun, add in Bingo Bill after a few hours and you witnessed the aftermath!

FWIW i defo butcher the hand on the turn, I do not think I would say the same for yourself. You make a questionalble call pre, a call on the flop to make a move??? then hit the turn. It was a very interesting hand for alot of reasons though the turn is really where it took off. (FWIW, my line was that you had none of it and once you raise my turn bet, my question is.. am I ahead, do i need to hit my redraw?)

I was a little peeved you didn't use them wisely!!!!

preflop.

Reverse Implied odds with a very arkward stack size - fold imo

Postflop I agree a great spot to float if we're 150bb's+ with lots of good turn cards, but once we flat it's hard to credibly rep anything for value if you wanna try and take the pot down later with your stack size, a little FPS possibly. Just wait till you have a great hand or more chips

Was more annoyed at myself, I promise you that ;).

I guess being card dead and spot dead puts your head in cash mode. Live and learn

Thoughts du Skippy:

Currently, you have 7500 in the pot (1600*3 + 9*100+ 400+800)

I think if you are going to 3-bet, it's going to have to be a shove. Even if you 2x the pot (say 15,000) you are going to have to call any shoves from elsewhere on the table.

If you do call, on the flop there will be 9300 in the pot. with you having 23,200 back. So I think again it's push or fold on the flop. A pot size bet on the flop which you call will result in you having about 10k left, and that's got to go in on later streets. You say he bets 3800. If you call, the pot is 15900, you've got 19,400 left, you getting pretty committed- I mean, you could fold, but that would really suck.

It's suggested elsewhere you could be "setting up a move". With a pot size of 15,900 and 19,400 left in your stack, how much fold equity do you have? Very little. For instance are you getting an Ace to fold? Absolutely not. What are the chances there isn't an Ace out amongst contestant number 1, 2 or 3? Very little.


Because of the previous two paragraphs, I think you just can't call, since you don't get a good enough flop enough to jam enough of the time, and call-folding the flop is just burning money.

So should you 3-bet shove? It depends on what you think the other players at the table have got, and whether they will call you. You are trying to get 3 people to fold (plus the blinds if they wake up with a big hand). I'd be very suspicious of BookieBasher- WTF is he doing calling a raise from a 20bb stack for? Alarm bells are ringing.

lets give them all pretty wide ranges


Hold'em Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
9d7d   21.42%   126,540   4,708
15%   28.27%   161,658   17,170
20%   25.55%   145,503   16,835
22%   24.76%   140,898   16,585

we're calling 1,800 into 5,700 preflop, so we've already made a pretty big EV mistake calling, which we could defo justify if we have the implied odds to make many monies in the hand. Lets assume the big blind DOESN'T call so we're 4 way.
Pot is 7,500 and we have 23,100 behind - lets take the most likely scenario that we are just going to flop equity and get it in vs 1 oppo post flop, we're going to getting 23,100 in to win a pot of 53,700 so we're going to need 43% equity post flop to stack off.

(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=t:0,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.37,0.46,0.61,0.73,0.85,0.97,1.05,1.26,1.38,1.54,1.62,1.72,1.83,1.98,2.05,2.18,2.31,2.39,2.44,2.52,2.71,2.79,2.89,3.04,3.24,3.46,3.75,3.94,4.13,4.34,4.64,4.89,5.15,5.53,5.76,6.03,6.4,6.87,7.3,7.76,8.22,8.65,9.05,9.35,9.66,10.17,10.66,11.18,11.82,12.4,12.99,13.56,13.99,14.44,14.93,15.58,16.24,16.98,17.59,18.42,19.2,19.8,20.86,21.73,22.64,23.47,24.32,25.38,26.18,27.0,28.0,29.29,30.89,32.65,34.63,36.75,38.94,41.63,44.44,47.02,49.07,51.05,53.15,55.11,57.33,59.26,61.17,63.83,66.79,69.92,73.32,77.62,82.52,87.4,91.49,94.92,100.0|100,99.0,98.0,97.0,96.0,95.0,94.0,93.0,92.0,91.0,90.0,89.0,88.0,87.0,86.0,85.0,84.0,83.0,82.0,81.0,80.0,79.0,78.0,77.0,76.0,75.0,74.0,73.0,72.0,71.0,70.0,69.0,68.0,67.0,66.0,65.0,64.0,63.0,62.0,61.0,60.0,59.0,58.0,57.0,56.0,55.0,54.0,53.0,52.0,51.0,50.0,49.0,48.0,47.0,46.0,45.0,44.0,43.0,42.0,41.0,40.0,39.0,38.0,37.0,36.0,35.0,34.0,33.0,32.0,31.0,30.0,29.0,28.0,27.0,26.0,25.0,24.0,23.0,22.0,21.0,20.0,19.0,18.0,17.0,16.0,15.0,14.0,13.0,12.0,11.0,10.0,9.0,8.0,7.0,6.0,5.0,4.0,3.0,2.0,1.0,0.0&chs=600x400&chds=0,100&chxt=x,y,x,y,t&chxl=0:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|1:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|2:||Percentage+of+flops||3:||Min.%20Equity||4:||Propokertools.com|&chxs=0,000000|1,000000&chxtc=0,-400|1,-600&chf=bg,s,DDFFDD&chco=D13621)

see here we make 43% equity around 18% of the time, so....assuming we play perfectly (which is impossible 4way vs indistinguishable ranges) we are going to be chk folding a lot

Now there is some maths where we figure out how much % of the time we have to make our required equity to make calling pre-flop = implied odds, but I'm not James Keys and I can tell you without even touching a calculator it needs to be significantly higher than 18%.

ofc this doesn't take into affect the times we take the pot down uncontested on the flop, or something else happens, but from the OP it sounded like your plan was to make a good flop and stack off.

Yeah, that's what I said.

yup - pretty much to the word

but you didnt say it with graphs wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

PROPOKERTOOLS. is that a members only club or can anyone join

ur a bit old mate, leave it to the kids imo ;)

In addition when you call pre you set up an ideal squeeze opportunity for one of the 4 other players sitting behind you. A ~30k stack will be ideal for pushing this spot vs confirmed wide ranges. So you have to factor not seeing a flop into overall expectation with this hand.