blonde poker forum

Blinds : 400/800 - Ante 50.0
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6 players

[1] Hero (3910)
[2] somondo123 (3760)
[3] iSlavok (3345)
[But] Uncle Thor (4720)
[SB] anightplayer (5140)
[BB] Good Reg (6125)

hero :Jc :6d Initial Pot: 1500


18-man SNG, 6 left, 4 paid in the 40:30:20:10% structure.

What's the argument for shoving over folding, or folding over shoving here?

I hate these spots. I used to shove, now I tend to fold, but I'd like to know which is the better play.

seems an easy fold being that our hand is a bag of shit and plays badly against things people call with

I wouldn't be shoving this. I don't think you really gain any fold equity vs regs from the fact that you're shoving UTG into 5 players, as you see quite a few regs doing this as a standard play when down to about 5bbs as here, so I think you get called wide-ish. Would probably prefer slightly to shove this from UTG+1 into regs in the blinds as obviously you've got one fewer to get through but also because it doesn't reek so much of desperation. That said, stacks couldn't really be much better for it, but I'd still say it's a fold. J7 suited maybe. Taking the big blind doesn't really put you out of touch with the field either.

Edit: Wiz reckons shoving J6o gives you equity of maybe 12-13% (if you tighten up its calling ranges reasonably, though I don't know how much you should tighten up the range of 'good reg' in the BB as calling and winning gives him a great situation on the bubble). Folding gives you 15.7%, though this is presumably much less accurate as it isn't taking sufficiently into account the big blind next hand, which has much more impact if you've folded than if you've shoved, when you've either got more chips or are out.

However, if you assume that you fold and get dealt QT in the BB and get shoved on from the button, say, and can't profitably call, then your equity will then still be 12.5% without the same impending positional disadvantage as you had in the last hand (and obviously with some upside from the possibility that someone else gets knocked out in the meantime). Shoving J8 suited (or 78 suited) from UTG gives you about 1% more equity than J6o, so starts to look profitable, though take away a little for the impact of the big blind next hand when you're still in and the possibility of knockouts elsewhere and I'd guess it's still pretty close. (If you shoved and won the blinds here for example I think you'd have about 19% equity for a millisecond in-between hands, as it were, but that obviously falls once you have to post your big blind, and falls to about 17% if you fold that big blind.)

So even if we say that shoving J8 suited gives us average equity of 14% for that millisecond between hands, the fact of having to post the big blind is going to drop that back to somewhere around or a bit below the 12.5% mark, roughly where we would have been if we'd just folded it.

Maybe too many assumptions there to make a great deal of sense in the end, and apologies if I've made mistakes, and it was all to suggest that if you've got a bit better than J6o then it's probably kind of close and go with your feel, but if you've actually got J6o here then I wouldn't be shoving it.

I'd fold this but definitely shoving wide, like 50%

Thanks guys, really appreciate your input (except you Paprikas obv :))

I think I've been playing too tight recently, and choosing to try and call it off in the blinds rather than make jams similar to this, and it's a possible leak that has arisen

Agree that J6 looks a little wide, but good to know that it's good to shove with J5s, 8T type hands.

Shove