blonde poker forum

Part hand anlysis, part Tourney analysis, but a bit of both really, because sometimes the two need to be seen together. This occurred yesterday, & set me thinking about tournament strategy.

It's the $500 Frezeout on Blue Square, 2k starting chips, 30 minute clock, lovely.

I enjoyed a good tourney, always at or sligtly above average stack, never all-in, & I felt in control of things. I had moved tables several times, but I found myself against lairy R-R merchants quite a lot - blondeites At It Penly, Jeff Buffenburger, and, playing really beautiful, strong poker from the word go, Simon Nowab. It's tough to find a spot against these guys, but with this sructure, patience was in order, & all went nicely. I found Premiums 3 or 4 tuimes, always on my Blinds, &, uncannily, these were about the only occasions when the lairy boys did not make a speculative Raise, but never mind, the chips were safely gathered without drama.

With 13 or 14 left, Simon Nowab & Stu Fox were runaway Chip Daddies, both playing terrific poker, & I'm about average with 7,500 - but blinds were only 150-300, so "average" does not mean TOO much at this point, imo.  But I'm starting to think how I'm gonna play the Final - serious money, $12k to the winner - so it was worth giving some thought to. I deduced that Nowab & Foxy would bully everyone to death, quite right too, & I was gonna need to either get lucky, or find a big, contested, hand soon, or I would have trouble coping with the deep stacks 6 or 7 handed.

And then THIS happened.

UTG, sat quite comfortable with 5k, moves ALL-IN! I look down & see  Qs Qh, an auto-pilot call in my BB. He can only have a medium pair at best, maybe some sort of straggley A, I suppose AK or AQ was a possibility, but I plumped for medium pair, & its clear he does not want a call, & it's clear he's gonna get one! A bad play by him in my view, he can find the answer to his question FAR cheaper than 5k, a bet of 1,500 or so would have told him where he stood, but anyway, that's his problem, I'm cool, there is no decision for me, I KNOW I'm ahead. (such as you can).

But suddenly, I'm awoken from my smug thoughts by Simon Nowab, deep-stacked with 16k, who just CALLS. Now THATS AK, for sure, maybe AQ worst, at least that's my read, right or wrong. So, I have 7k, QQ in my hands, I can pass for free, I've only got the BB invested, & safely resume my progress to the Final, with a so-so-stack, or partake in this coup on a do-or-die basis. Clearly, if I move on for 7.5k, Nowab will call in a flash. If I have read their hands correctly, I'm about an 11/10 shot to win this, say 45%, & the Pot Odds cover this handsomely. Though Pot Odds are a fat lot of good if I'm on the Rail.......

Make the Final average chips, & get pushed around by the bullies, or give myself a REAL chance to win the thing? The money in the Final starts at about $200, & does not get serious untl 4th or 5th, & I've already guaranteed myself $120 ish, as I recall.

A few months ago, I let this go - "stack preservation" rules!, but lately, I've turned the preservation dial down, & tried to build playable stacks. And it's done me good, my Final finishes have been much higher than previously.

Anyway, I decide to go for it, & on their backs, we find this is the situation.....

UTG Lunger Man -  Ts Th

Simon Nowab Ac Kd

Me  Qs Qh

My read was good, & I'm 45% to win it, Nowab 36% & Lunger Man a surprisingly high 19%, which, oddly, is almost identical to his odds if it's me & him Heads-Up.

Anyway, the K falls, & that's that, goodbye Chips, & goodbye Tourney, but no problem there, I knew what I was likely to face, & made a conscious decision to take the chance - a favourites chance at that.

So the question here is between survival, or going for the win. There's NO right or wrong answer, it depends on so many things, but where DO you draw that line?

Thewy often speaks of "finding the path to the Final", a sort of analogy for dodgng bullets, whereas as many would say, "bugger getting there with an average stack, let's get serious".

What path do the blondeite Hand Analysis Squad prefer?

1st place is worth 20 6th places financially.

Correct reads and correct play IMO.

Well, I've never looked at it THAT way! I need to think about that logic though.

good post tony..........i am in the same camp as you , i would have made the same play.far better to reach the final table with a stack that allows you to play as opposed to having to push all in at the first half hand.  i went out in the very first hand of the 500$ flopping top two pair and losing to trips but i have no regrets.i could have been up against an overpair the way the betting went so i put my tournament on the line figuring that if my hand held up  a) i would have a good stack to accumulate more chips  and  b) it would show other players that that i would not be pushed off a hand.  with tournament payouts predominantly top heavy i feel the risk taken to win the tournament as opposed to just making the money iswell worth taking.

Well I'm a recent convert to that way of thinking, but it does come at the expense of more early exits, & I like to get my value when I enter a tiourney, (as well as giving others value, before Flushy pipes up).....

If I enter a decent tiourney, PART of the vaklue to me is the entertainment value of a long poker session, with some good table banter. Now that IS bad strategy, but it is what it is.

My first ever big tourney was a £1,500 Freeze at Walsall, and first hand I found  Qs Qh & got into a Raising war with Matey Boy pre-flop. The flop came, miraclously,  Qd Jc Td, Top Set, luverly. Then we got in another Raising war, &, embarrassingly, I passed Top Set after he set me all-in. I decided he had AK & passed! - I just could not bear to exit so early in my first big comp, & my mind thus convinved me he had AK, by way of justification for my awful pass. as it happened, he DID have AK, so I was "thin", but those days have long gone, thank goodness.

Would your thinking differ on a final table of a WSOP or WPT?

A decision Carlo Citrone had this year (on a WSOP final) confused the hell out of me but I cant really remember it.

Tony, i think you are right, you are murdering the UTG all in, however i am shit scared of Simon.

He has a style and he understands how to play his style, it does not include calling off large portions of his stack pre flop without the goods, if he had re-raised all in i would be more inclined to call, when he flat calls i am more expecting to see AA/KK.

In theory, I'd play the more speculative option now - but that's in THEORY! Whether I'd have the balls to think like that in a REAL biggie is another matter.......

I do find that I'm MUCH braver in little Tourneys!

Though, to be fair, in my first WSOP Event earlier this year, I found to my horror, we only got 1,500 Chips (it was a $1,500 jobbie) & I just decided there & then to gamble, & it worked a treat, but did my bum-cheeks no good at all......

I think i still call though, as i put the UTG on AK/AQ and fancy the dead money, there is still a goo chance simon is AK/JJ so i could be against 2 x AK, or at least 2 x Ax

It’s all so easy to say after the event, but I think I would have folded here. Yes you will get yourself a large stack to go on and play at the final table, but I don’t like the flat call. That has to set alarm bells off in your head.

 I am about preservation at this stage and since I will get to see the flop, and what they are both holding, I would have stepped aside. I can kick myself later, But would still be in the tournament.

 Flushy has a very aggressive style, I have seen him on the final table and he is a force to be reckoned with, However since I have tried to emulate this style of play, I have had rather less success at making finals. It all has to do with your own personal style. People might think this is weak of me, but I have picked up large hands and pots while sitting at the final table short stacked, the big guys like to try knock you out here and inevitably can double and triple you up, giving you a real chance, Just look at IMMRCHIPS, sorry to rub than in tikay, but the guy had nothing at one point. Preservation is the name of the game for me.JMHO

Bundle   

Nice Post bundle.

Your paragraph 2 sums up my dilemma precisely. I hear what you say, but I'm not 100% certain it's right for me.  Hence my Post.

I suffer from final table short stack syndrome too, so this is a really valuable exercise to work through from my perspective.

My gut feel was to fold. The flat call scares me to death. However, I'm going to work through some hand ranges for both opponents to try to get a better feel as this must be a pretty marginal situation.

However, it will have to wait as Jools Holland is just starting and there is a bottle of wine with my name on it  :ironside:

Happy New Year to all Blondies and specially the HAS-beens (Hand Analysis Squad) with whom it is a privilege to discuss some really tricky situations :respect:

 

Personally I feel that you have to go with your read in these situations.

If you had suspected that you were up against AA or KK then it's a bad call IMO

If their  cards had been face up what would you have done ?

I now know the guy had AK, but would not have put him on that, would you not move in here to shut out the rest and get it HU. I was wrong, but i would have put him on AA here, even that hand should still move in. anyway my point being the Flat call scares the hell out of me here

I think the best style is a mix of the best players you know!

Examples:

1)  ;tk;, tight and right most of the time, maybe to conservative
2) DC / plays "stealth poker" , all of a sudden he has chips but you cant remember how he got them
3) Rookie / aggresive, some what crazy, always gets paid, cant put him on a hand
4) Mr Cool / plays as his name suggests, usually has the goods, picks out the right "marks" at the table to do battle against
5) John Gale / very aggressive, very smart, will gamble!
6) Surrinder / ultra conservative, very scarey
7) Tony G / Tough to play against, may do anything, need to play tight against him, you cant like him at your table, dont lie!
8) Dan / just wait for any  4s 7c to knock him out of a comp

I think you need all differnet ways to play, this is what I am and have been working on for the last 30 days.

I have been playing small MTT at different sites, actually writing things down on paper as I play, things like DC stealth,  ;tk; tight, Surrinder super tight. Sounds crazy but I think it is a good way to condition ones self to be a better player. Learn from the people around you.

The biggest leak in my game is still patience, sorry DC still working on it 8)  

Another avenue is the stop and go, say you flat call the bet then move on the flop, if the flop is low then simon would have to pass his AK

but then you do not get max value from the hand, now your QQ has shown you a small profit?

Well the pot is already 15k at this point, so simon isnt folding on the flop anyway, but if say tikay had 12k and made this move, then he bets 7k on the flop simon passes and he doubles up, ok he loses out on the extra 7k if he moves in pre flop, but it saves him his stack all those times the A/K comes on the turn or the river.

your right 8)

i would personally call but when you look at the odds you are not even 50%. i would want to get to the final with a big stack though. good call but unlucky

Simon's flat call did not trouble me unduly, it was my instinct that if he had AA or KK, he would Raise, as there were 4 players behind him, still to act. Nobody wants AA or KK 3 handed in a pot that big.

But that was not really the point of my Post, which was, get involved, & be either huge, or out, or plod on to the Final with a medium stack, knowing I'd face two deep-stacked & very aggressive players? Hang in there, or go for it? That's really the question.

I still think it was right to go for it, but it will be interesting to see what kind of analysis 12Barblues comes up with when he's sobered up, he's pretty cute with these.

Correct, not 50%, but I AM favourite. Now theres a conundrum! Many good judges, & I particularly recall Paul Phillips advice on this scenario, is that at the sharp end of a tourney, ANY edge, no matter how small, MUST be taken. I had the edge. But PP may be wrong.

you are favourite against these players individualy but not favourite overall if you know what i mean?????????????????????

I just think you can play this hand different all the time. It is a "gut" feeling when you play it hard, its a gut feeling when you dont play it! If you look at the payouts at comps it makes sense to go for the WIN in my opinion!!!

In the 888.com semi I had to make one of these plays vs Gary Jones! He reraised me 3 handed w/  Kd Qh and I called w/  Ah 8h!
It was a call that put out one of the best players in the semi and alos put me into a big chip lead going into the 6 handed final! Could have hurt real bad though 8)

Has the 888.com final been on yet. I played one of the worst hands of my life when I was reraised by the 2nd biggest stack, I called w/ 8h 8c and he had  Ac Ah, very very very bad call, at best I was 50/50, needed a better spot.  

I'm not sobering up....I have every intention of getting much worse....but my initial analysis, based on TK's reads, shows that he is around 33% to win this. And he needs 38%. Fold.

Hic!!!

P.S. If AQ is a possibility for Simon, then it's bang on 38%.

P.P.S. If UTG has anything other than a smaller pair, this post should be treated with the contempt it deserves  :ironside:  It gets much more complicated if the opponents hands interfere with each other, i.e. AK/AK

P.P.P.S. I am in no state to be even considering posting on a public forum.............

Well, this is where it getts ricky, there is nothing wrong with making that final with a mid stack, the structure was great. However if you take simon on, you take out the best player on your table (excluding yourself of course) which with your new stack would enable you to run your table.The question is would you use the edge you get from taking out simon (ok i know he had some chips back) or would you just sit back?

I changed my tourny strategy like you Tikay half way through the year.
I was making a good deal of final tables but never really getting in the top 3.
Since then I have left tournies very early, which I wasnt used to but I have managed three top 3 finishes in the 100k on Prima since then so I feel it definatly is the way forward.
Unfortunatlly ive been 3rd everytime getting roughly $8k each time although when the chips went in I was always leading so I cant ask for much more.
So to sum up -
In my "short" trial I have earnt more winnings than the 12 month period before BUT it still hurts going out early when trying to accumalte a large stack early.
I mainly play cash and proably only play 30 tournies a year so this doesnt reflect a lot in hindsight.

Happy New Year !

Sober yet?

UTG -  Td Tc = 18%

Simon  As Kh = 36%

tikay =  Qh Qc = 46%

Flushy's lastest Post? Good question. I would probably have sat back if I had won that hand, &, barring exceptional cards or situations, started playing again when we were 4 or 5 handed. Unless I had become massive, in which case, I'd have some fun & been bullying straight away.

Tractor's Post suggests he is going through the same process of change that I am. Here's whY I felt change was needed, these are my Fessie Cashes in 2004, my firsr year on the proper circuit.

2nd, 8th, 4th, 8th, 2nd, 9th, 5th, 6th, 3rd, 8th, 8th, 4th.

And 2005...

18th, 12th, 17th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 11th, 18th, 9th, (after which I decided to be MUCH more aggressive), 2nd, 12th, 1st.

So I clearly needed to do SOMETHING.

I'm still convinced that I did the right thing - **** or bust!

tikay aren't you and barblues talking about different percentages here? Are your %s what you would get from 2dimes or any other hand calculator whereas barblues talking about %equity against a range of possible hands?

That is probably correct byron, it's rare that 12Bar gets his numbers wrong, & I misunderstood his reply I think.

But in making my assessment, I had to put the 2 opponents "on hands" - what else can you do? - & as luck would have it, I got both hands correct. So I made a decision baesed on the basis that I believed I was favourite.

I call too but VERY reluctantly.
One thing i hate is being allin with more than one other in the pot, it reduces your odds dramatically (which is what 12BB's means).
I played a live comp the other day, my AK v AJ vA7 (first 2 allin my decision with 13 left, 9 paid), not going into bad beats but needless to say i chopped the side pot with the best hand!!
It happens but i'd still call if i was in the same situation tomorrow, a lot has been written about getting aggressive near the bubble and IMO the merits far outweigh the downsides.

My calc of 33% chance of winning was based on UTG having a lower pair and Simon holding AA or KK or AK.

If Simon could be holding AQ as well, it increases to 38%.

7,500 into a total pot of 20,000 = 37.5%

Caveat: I'm pretty new to this kind of analysis and could well be horribly wrong. The beauty of this board is that there are some much better players than me who can tell me when I'm spouting nonsense and I can learn and improve. Great innit! I couldn't care less if I appear to be a self-opiniated fish.

A last calc: 12bar + alcohol = headache. I should know better.........

12Bar, I am missing something here, maybe I am barking up the wrong tree, but I'm still struggling with your %'s. QQ v underpair v AK, I get the QQ to be 45%. No?

Want some Nurafen?

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1437828

But you are in deep doodah if he has AA (6 ways) or KK (6 ways) as opposed to AK (16 ways) i.e. 12 out of 28 times.

...agree. But as I noted earlier, I do not seeing him flat-calling with AA or KK as there are 4 players behind him. So my read was AK, maybe AQ.
Though the real point was, meet the challenge & either be be chip leader or out, or duck the challenge, & plod on, and get pushed around in th Final by the deep-stacks?

Great post Tikay.

A scenario all of have faced sometime or another, and will do again.

To me its a "gut feeling". Your "gut feeling" was spot on and that I feel makes it a correct call.

Now had the player in Simons position been a wild card, then I think that your "gut feeling" could not possibly be correct and a fold in my mind would of been my move.

"Gut feeling" great when its right, horrible when it is wrong.

A story of gut feeling :

earlier this year in the WPT event in Reno, i am in day 3 with 42 left and have around 14xBB left. Money started at 27.
I was UTG with AK o/s(no clubs) with 3 big stacks on my table. I needed to make this hand pay and not just pick up the blinds so decided to limp
in.

3 callers +SB. Flop came K 7 2 with 2 clubs. SB and BB both check. Now my thought here (rightly or wrongly) was to check and induce a bet from the 2 big stacks in the pot then move all in. But alas, it was checked all round the table.
Turn card bought a 3rd club. Again SB and BB both check, and I had a good read on the last player to act and had him on a small flush so couldnt bet.
Everyone checked again and the river bought a 4th club!! The look on the guy's face who was last to act confirmed to me that he had a small flush and didnt like the river.
Again SB and BB checked, I couldnt bring myself to push all in - even though my "gut feeling" was that he would pass and i checked.
The next guy to act had masses of chips and had been stealing (Arnold Spee was his name who went on to win it) looked around, looked at the pot, looked at my chips and made a bet equal to what I had left.
It was folded back round to me.
Now my "Gut feeling" was that he had no part of the flush at all and I was almost certainly ahead with my AK.
I was fighting with my mind, I knew I was ahead, but couldnt bring myself to stick it in. Not an easy decision (approx 4 minutes from memory)
Now had I gone with my gut feeling I would of trippled (nealy) my stack and would of been in great shape to advance in the tourney.
Arnold Spee showed me A 5 (no clubs) for a pair of 5's.
That "gut feeling" decision has bothered me ever since and probably always will.

Now that call - which I should of made was based solely on Gut Feeling. No way could I call in that situation without it.

You need to read the maths section of erick lindgren's book. we're talking about putting your opponents on a range of hands not guessing 2 specific hands whether you guessed correctly in this case or not. Are you saying that DC or Julian doesn't do these calcs or at least done them for a few common situations? I was thinking that I am a very bad/lazy player for not doing this yet. I'm glad in a way that I'm not the only one :D

Great Post M3Boy, it's that "Key Decision" of the whole tourney, & sometimes you just have to go with your gut feel. Bet you have regretted it every day since then!

OK the book example. You have 88 and are reraised all in. You put your opponent on QQ+ or AK. Do you call? 6 combinations each for QQ KK AA. 16 ways for AK. 18/16 that you are a big dog.

equity against overpair is 19%, against AK 54%. 16 + 18 = 34.    18 x 19% + 16 x 54% divided by 34 = overall equity of 35% thereofre if getting 1.8/1 or better pot odds mathematically you should call.

Oh have I!!  30odd xBB with 42 left would of been in good position - hopefully I will have the chance to play another WPT event soon.

I am getting a headache here byron!

"Range of hands", yes.. I have, right or wrong, excluded AA & KK from my calculations, so when we do the "range of hands" scenario, I get him on only a few hands - AK, AQ, QQ, JJ. I really don't know how Dave or Julian calculate at this stage - in fact, I doubt if Julian "calculates" at all - but I certainly do, & did. But I must emphasise, I deduced very quickly - luckily, perhaps - that he could NOT have AA or KK. So my calculations had to exclude those hands. If I put him on either of those hands, calculations are not necessary, as I pass in a flash.

Slowly, I think I am gettuing there byron, though it's all a bit complicated for me. So the calculation I should do, according to you, must include AA or KK? I cant see that at all I'm afraid. If I think for a moment he has KK or AA, I pass, but his play specifically suggests he did NOT. Simon Nowab is a VERY good player, & I just don't see him wanting to play either hand more than 2 way. But I appreciate your point, & need to think about it some more.

Tikay - you obviously know your opponents play well, but I've seen AA/KK flat call a reasonably sized all-in so many times, I almost think that it's a standard play.  In fact the hand that clinched my qualification for WSOP, was all-in flat call, I went over the top with AK and luckily sucked out.

No, this is all new to me as well but I'm playing around at pokerstove.com and my new years resolution is that I will know this stuff before 7th March. I have a headache myself now and I still have a tax return I was going to do today :( Download pokerstove and play around with ranges and if you understand it all please explain it to me :D

Well Simon Nowab is as tricky as they come, and I do know his game very well, but this goes back to M3Boy's "gut feel", & I just was absoutely sure he never had AA or KK. But this is missing my point, which was "Go for it, or duck it"?.

byron - don't remind me, "Tax Return". I'm retired, & the Inland Revenue are STILL giving me hell......

If I didn't know the player well enough to exclude AA/KK I would fold.

OK think I've worked out how to do it. Pokerstove results

                equity (%)      win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   52.2800 %     54.24%    00.28%      { QcQd }
Hand  2:   19.2727 %     17.08%    03.02%      { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand  3:   28.4473 %     26.58%    03.09%      { AQs+, AQo+ }

and if simon could have had AA or KK


equity (%)     win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   40.5542 %     40.35%    00.24%      { QcQd }
Hand  2:   18.3943 %     16.35%    02.06%      { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand  3:   41.0516 %     39.01%    02.08%      { KK+, AQs+, AQo+ }

If your read is as strong as this, you have to trust your judgement......shovel those chips in.

And thank you Byron for unearthing a resource I was not aware of (Pokerstove). I was messing around with twodimes and then manually calculating the results for various hand ranges.

It calculates winning $'s only, not equity, but I use this......

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem/index.php?stats=Tzo4OiJzdGRDbGFzcyI6OTp7czoxMToibnVtX3BsYXllcnMiO2k6MztzOjM6ImNsaSI7czoxODoiVEggVEMgQUMgS0ggUUQgUVMgIjtzOjE0OiJwbGF5ZXJfMV9jYXJkcyI7czo1OiJUQyBUSCI7czozOiJwY3QiO2E6Mzp7aToxO3M6NToiMTcuNiUiO2k6MjtzOjU6IjM2LjAlIjtpOjM7czo1OiI0Ni41JSI7fXM6MzoidGllIjthOjM6e2k6MTtzOjQ6IjAuMzEiO2k6MjtzOjQ6IjAuMzEiO2k6MztzOjQ6IjAuMzEiO31zOjE0OiJwbGF5ZXJfMl9jYXJkcyI7czo1OiJBQyBLSCI7czoxNDoicGxheWVyXzNfY2FyZHMiO3M6NToiUVMgUUQiO3M6OToibnVtYm9hcmRzIjtzOjc6IjEzNzA3NTQiO3M6MTU6InByb2Nlc3NpbmdfdGltZSI7czo1OiIwLjMwOCI7fQ==

Blimey - that's a long address - maybe I should not have entered the hands......

All the math in the world isnt going to help at the point in the tournament when you have to make the decision...
Like m3 said it is that gutt feeling, that cant be equated for in maths, or can it, someone will now produce a formula know doubt.

Do you guys use these programs in real time? or just afterwards? Curious really as I know the odds but not exactly as you work it out.
Do these programs intergrate with the poker client to calculate your % etc in real time?


Ps- is this board just for hand analysis or actual poker related stuff too?
Or do we still post poker things in General, I would like to see this in main board please mods, as this is why most of us are here in the first place.
Although obviously we all enjoy the general banter aswell.


 

No, I would never use those sites in real time - I assume you refer to Online play. Like most peeps, I have a rough idea of the pertinent %'s, but when I get home from the tourney, I often check them out, for the sake of curiousty.

This Board is intended for Hand Analysis, & it's a "Child Board" right now, for reasons we have expained previously. It may move to become a Main Board in due course, it depends on how popular it proves. The Betting Tips Child Board has also proven a success, but we wil probably always leave that as a Child Board, whereas the call is more tricky on the Hand Analysis Board. We are delighted at how popular it seems to be proving.

It's really proving troublesome to get these things right, I'm afraid it's a case of not being able to please everyone. The sheer weight of Posts brings it's own problems, as stuff can disappear very quickly. Added to that is the maxim "we MUST keep trying to improve the place", & it becomes a tricky equation. We review the Boards on a regular basis, & will continue to do so.

Tikay i am not sure your read on Simon is right at all.

Perhaps we can get Simon to read the thread and offer his views.

If i were sat that were with AA/KK i would flat call, i dont mind taking AA/KK 3 way for a big pot when as you already said the payouts are big at the top and small at the bottom!

I am fairly certain simon plays AA/KK with a flat call, he may have even flat called with AK to make it look like a big pair.

This is the kicking myself i was talking about...However i did read it right pre-flop. so i can except the loss.

Full Tilt Poker Game #363909611: $10,500 Guarantee (2291027), Table 7 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:34:19 ET - 2006/01/01
brianbreslin: wow
Seat 1: JAZZYJESS (10,142)
Seat 2: REDTITAN (6,070)
Seat 3: brianbreslin (700)
Seat 5: LadySkill (2,830)
Seat 6: Leanne26 (10,133)
Seat 7: wjdjr (3,620)
Seat 8: flyboys3 (7,165)
Seat 9: bundle (14,385)
LadySkill posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bundle [Qs Qh]
bundle: not right
Leanne26 folds
wjdjr folds
Leanne26 is feeling happy
flyboys3 calls 200
bundle raises to 800
JAZZYJESS folds
REDTITAN folds
brianbreslin folds
LadySkill calls 600
flyboys3 raises to 7,165, and is all in
wjdjr: phill ivey /freddy deeb
bundle folds
LadySkill calls 2,030, and is all in
flyboys3 shows [As Ah]
LadySkill shows [Jc Js]
Uncalled bet of 4,335 returned to flyboys3
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9c 6d]
*** TURN *** [Tc 9c 6d] [2s]
*** RIVER *** [Tc 9c 6d 2s] [Qc]
bundle: passed qq
flyboys3 shows a pair of Aces
LadySkill shows a pair of Jacks
flyboys3 wins the pot (6,460) with a pair of Aces
LadySkill stands up
K-Dog007 sits down
K-Dog007 adds 5,175
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6,460 | Rake 0
Board: [Tc 9c 6d 2s Qc]
Seat 1: JAZZYJESS didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: REDTITAN didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: brianbreslin (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: LadySkill (big blind) showed [Jc Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 6: Leanne26 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: wjdjr didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: flyboys3 showed [As Ah] and won (6,460) with a pair of Aces
Seat 9: bundle folded before the Flop

would have won yes. but could also be on the rail...

You couldnt be on the rail....you had him outchipped 2-1.

I persoanlly think thats a poor pass.

yes you are right..I just thought i was behind, and like ive said i am not too good at coin flips. It was a bad pass. i bottled it getting half my stack in

I am not passing QQ here and you have to be prepared to die sometimes in these events. However I wouldn't have pushed the extra 2.5k in, despite your read on the situation. SN would always call you and would probably put you in if he hit the flop with AK anyway, but there is always a chance that your flat call behind him may assist his urge to bet and rather check down the all in opponent. This depleats your stack somewhat, but you may limper higher up the money order or find another opportunity to get some chips later with your small balance.

Well that's an interesting one - if the worst happens, & I let it go after flat calling, I am still in the comp. Good Post.

But....as you rightly say, sometimes you have to be prepared to die.

And this takes us back to the starting point - is it better to make that big play, death or glory, & Final in good shape, or limp into the money & hope to get lucky? I'v done too much of the latter, so I've converted. GREAT fun, but not doing my ticker much good!

excellent thread.
had been at snowabs table till i got  qq outdrawn     the deck was hitting him   and he obv playing confidently.
that said, a quick  snap decision is reqd  and u took the brave,but  unlucky , option.

next time, the best hand might stand up?

Well that's another twist to the talew, which has not really been explored - I had the best hand. So I had an edge.  I believe three things here.......

At THAT stage of a tourney - 14 left? - you MUST exploit ANY edge, however small.

I BELIEVED I was ahead, so the chips must go in.

It's impossible, after the event, to recreate the ambience & "feel" of the table. You just HAVE to go with your gut feel. IT DOES NOT MATTER IF IT IS WRONG. I still believe it was the right play, even though I got busted. And I WAS right - but I got outdrawn. Thats part & parcel of poker. And this was my point, my question. A year ago, in Southampton, I put QQ down FOUR times in one comp, twice AA was shown, once KK was shown, once AK was shown. Eventually, & inevitably, I ended up moving in with a bag of spanners, forced to do so by a dwindling stack & rising blinds, & got busted. Those days have gone for this laddo. Hence Helsinki (30 minutes) & blonde Bash (3 hands). OK, maybe the lairy dial has gone too far the other way, but fear of losing early has finally gone, & I feel better for it. On my second tranche of chips on Saturday at blonde Bash, I flopped top two pair, & it was obvious from the betting that my opponent, Jen, had an overpair. She set me in, it took half a nanasecond for me to call. She had an overpair, but then hit runner runner quads. Did I mind? Not at all. At last, I am making these plays early in a tourney, something I never used to be able to do.

Which brings us neatly back to the original question. Never mind the hand analysis, what about the tourney analysis. 14 left, 2 deep-stacked bullies likely to Final, I want a stack that I can defend with, & attack with. So it's my view that I HAD to take that treble up opportunity with QQ. Fo me, it don't get any better than that opportunity, & if Simon misses his 6 outer, I'm in shape to win the comp. Well, finish 2nd......

Tikay my point was that i dont think you would use the stack to its full advantage. I don't think you need to have the big stack. You had it in the 300 and never really used it!

I hear you Flushy, but every game presents a different, & new, set of challenges. In THIS comp, I sensed two bullies would push me around in the Final if I was billy low stack, but they'd be a bit more careful if I had a big stack.