blonde poker forum

18-man, on the bubble as 4 paid.

I think this is quite an interesting spot. We have what would be a really risky shove here as the big blind is the short stack, and as such should be calling reasonably wide. However, this player is a complete random, not a reg. They often play super-tight to try and cash.

The benefits of shoving are quite big. If it gets through, we can automatically just shove the next hand, so we become the chip-daddy which is a really big advantage on the bubble.

However, when the big blind calls it screws us over, so I think with this weak a hand it's too risky.

Thoughts?



PokerStars Game #60672635799: Tournament #384510966, $105+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2011/04/11 19:36:44 CET [2011/04/11 13:36:44 ET]
Table '384510966 2' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: th1986 (5440 in chips)
Seat 2: HERO (6820 in chips)
Seat 6: simakos (5070 in chips)
Seat 7: devinr12 (6705 in chips)
Seat 8: Temski85 (2965 in chips)
th1986: posts the ante 50
HERO: posts the ante 50
simakos: posts the ante 50
devinr12: posts the ante 50
Temski85: posts the ante 50
devinr12: posts small blind 400
Temski85: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qh 6s]
th1986: folds
HERO:

when the volume dries up, increase the buy in?   ;D

As for the spot, given that you are shovig through the field, i think i probs fold. Obv no-one is looking you up without a genuine hand (assuming most are regs), but the BB will realise he is left with no fold equity, so he surely gets it in with most holdings here (even just one picture card), and you go from CL to shorty on a speculative shove. I dont like it

I disagree with this. Most randoms are calling far too tight here. Would never expect a call with J4. Q7 and K5 are more the kind of hands we're worried about.

Fwiw I wasn't the hero in this hand ;)

haha - didnt think you were - as you dont usually ammend HH's

As the BB here, my thought process would be:

1. We have no fold equiy after folding
2. There is no shorty
3. By the time the next BB comes we are all in
4. Opponents are highly unlikey to make a mistake as no-one is remotely close to blinding away
5. Take a shot here - we can win - fold here and we leave it purely to chance

Therefore the BB has a risk reward decission to make too. I am only folding absolute garbage here - and even then its close

No real thought behind this range - I just put 50% into stove - feels about right and doesnt look like a horrible range to call off with


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  16,938,111,168  games    13.437 secs     1,260,557,503  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    59.290%     57.57%    01.72%        9601643975    286595275.00   { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Hand 1:    40.710%     38.99%    01.72%        6503006435    286595275.00   { Q6s, Q6o }

Definitely folding here. Just too many people to get through imo

+1 you are still top 2 at worst in next hand. hope the next decision is easier (bag of crap or premium)

i will shove q7 sooted

i dont think its that bad shoving this as it is bubble and ur chip leader
its dependant on ur image and how the table is playing imo

Guy, you are giving the average random far too much credit. A lot of them will think "I have a bad hand, I want to cash, I fold"

However, I do agree that we can't shove here, but I think I'm with Paul that Q7s would be much more viable.

100% agree some ppl play these for fun/shot and are redic tight just to cash

Fold we get called too often here.