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Any love for this? It's probably going to seem either crazy or boring, but I believe 1) it's insanely important for Wolves, and 2) if they realise this, there is big value in betting on a one-goal Blackbum victory (i.e. 1-0, 2-1)

If you're sad enough like me to work out the numbers (I've got a massive bet on Blackpool to go down at 9-1, that's my excuse anyway), then Wolves are in a rare situation where it's really important for them to follow the other scores, and to adjust massively. The most bizarre adjustment is that, in a lot of scenarios, they should be happy to kick the ball around and play out a 1-0 defeat.

It all rests on the fact that both Blackpool and Birmingham will overtake Wolves if they get a point and Wolves lose by two goals, but not if Wolves lose by one. It makes a one goal defeat the pivot scoreline; the one thing Wolves might realise from the start is that in no scenario can a draw be better than a 1-0 defeat for them, and so they are effectively the same.

So, it could play out in two different types of scenarios. Here's the simple one:

1) Wolves are lucky enough to finish 5 minutes later than the other games. Results are in, and Blackpool and Birmingham have both drawn (Wigan's result actually doesn't matter). Wolves are losing 1-0. Now, if they play out their one goal defeat, they are 100% safe. If they don't, one Blackburn goal relegates them. So, bizarrely, it would actually be suicide not to.

And the more complicated one. This would be one example of many:

2) Twenty minutes to go, Wolves 1-0 down, Wigan losing easily, Birmingham and Blackpool both drawing.

Bizarrely, Wolves would be wrong to do anything other than play out a 1-0 defeat (which I'm guessing Blackburn would let them do!)

If they do, they can only go down if both Blackpool and Birmingham score. Unlikely. And if this happens, they could only have saved themselves by scoring two goals  anyway.

If they carry on playing, they will go down if they let in one more goal. Considerably more likely.

Now whether Wolves would realise that and put it into action is another thing, but it will get interesting, as it would be a massive mistake NOT to.

It's massively anti-football; the standard manager's line is "we'll concentrate on our own game, and not worry about other scores," but Wolves are in a rare situation where this attitude could be monumentally wrong.

Anyway, after all that, I'm going to punt it. They might realise it to some extent, and so I think 1-0 to Blackburn is a good tip.

Yeah it is kinda interesting, you make a good point, but would make sense for Wolves to go ftw in the first half and perhaps see where they are at come half time

Where did u get 9-1 on B'pool, did they reach that high at one point?

Drunken argument on Christmas Day that they could still go down. I think they were 8th at the time.

Is this like the ICM of the football world?

You're putting a lot of faith in footballers understanding maths.

Nice work, seeing as im mass funking for blackburn to go down im hoping this wont happen.

Yet if this was in italy this would now be a cert result dependant on other teams not spoiling their sides.

you don't think they will? Lol. And Mick McCarthy too?

Great manager, but I don't really see him doing anything but saying "we'lll just concentrate on our own game," which just maybe could turn into one of the greatest ever mistakes.

He's pretty much obliged to say that, but obv he will know the perms.

He won't know more about the perms than this manager.

(http://retrosport.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/kevin-keegan.jpg)

He knows alot about perms.

I predict know an incredible moment where other scores are in, Wolves are safe if they stop, but concentrate on their own game, and let in a second goal.

Another scunthorpe united legend.

I think there is a lot of logic in this.  I have spent a lot of time modelling and adjusting poisson distributions for football matches and the big lesson from it is that if both teams are suited by a result then poisson doesn't work as well.  This usually comes in games which finish 0-0 and it kinda suits both teams (something like a Man Utd away to Spurs) and the game just comes to a grinding halt.  This is now incorporated into most bookies models now but games like this aren't normally accounted for as well.  Of course it relies to a degree on both teams understanding this and not going all out for the win but like Stu says this shouldn't be a problem here.  I am probably going to this game as my nephew plays for Blackburn so might have to get involved....

go on then?

Obv should be in my celeb thread...

Sorry - should have added sick brag in brackets or something.  His name is Junior Hoilett....on my wifes side for fairly obvious reasons!!!!

Had no idea what fairly obvious reasons meant. Google images, Now I am guessing you are White, or you could just be a terrible footballer and your wife plays at International level.

So people call there wife's brothers/sister's kids their nephews?? Oh man. That means my family just got a whole lot bigger since i got married 6 months ago.

I just assumed not canadian though not black would probs fall better into the 'obvious' category

calculator and paper is out ready to work out the best combo for some free $$$$

McCarthy seems intenton the inevitable cliche- just concentrating on their own game:

http://www.wolves.co.uk/page/News/0,,10307~2361367,00.html

If he's fully serious about that, it could be bad news for us, as the bet has no extra value, but could be even worse news for Wolves. If things fall a very paticular way, that attitude could turn into one of the worst ever mistakes.

I was going to this game today as my son play for wolves academy but every time i watch a game wolves either draw or lose so... im not going lol. I dont think the score will be one nil as wolves have hit form and trust me , mr mc carthy will get the troops fired up. Its too close to call but i will settle for a draw and i think it will be the three who are in the relegation places at the moment who will go down as i cant see blackpool, wigan or brum getting a result. What worries me though is blackburn beat us easily 3-0 around xmas time and i hope samba dosent play like the last two games or wolves could be in trouble today. Keeping my fingers crossed  

Yeah, I think Molineux could actually become quite a relaxed place into the second half, as I see the three tough away games going to form. I think it could get sick exciting as it could become a case of who loses by more. Can really see a Man U 1 blackpool 0, Stoke 1 Wigan 0, and Spurs 3 Birmingham 0 possiblity, where Blackpool bizarrely stay up.

i've gone for B'ham and Wigan to go down @ burlington bertie 100 to 30.

I really hope that Wolves stay up, I don't want them in the Championship next year.

It would be nice to see that happen as i think blackpool have been a breath of fresh air to the premiership :)

Thanx mate, im hoping to for my son"s sake

If that happens both Wigan and Brummies have same goal difference, if so is it goals scored ? seems a bit ridic that someone could get relegated on gd nmind gf.

why does it? seems perfectly normal to me

Is that the rule then yeah ? I think a playoff would be much more fitting, sometimes it's the correct thing to do to hold onto a result not try to score more goals, getting punished for that in the most cruelist of ways seems a bit harsh, similarly with the title, don't they have a playoff in Italy ?

it's the rule, it's always been the rule, can hardly be described as ridic

don't know about italy but ukraine is a playoff for the title if points are the same. think relegation is still gd though

Jeff and the boys will be a good watch today.

Tbh i think it could go to goal difference, talk about it going to the wire  ;shitfanhit;

yep. I was geting fed up with having nothing to do today til I realised it could be an awesome SS

Redknap not playing Gomes and Assou-Ekotto..arre they both injured or is he just not that bothered?

Nice arb in wolves blackburn, can back no first gscr at 12s with stan james and lay at about 9.5-1 on betfair 0-0 correct score. Also means if its 1-0 but an own goal you win both. Mbn having a stans ac tho!

charlie adam is da man

Courtesy of Opta on Twitter: "Charlie Adam is the first opp player to score a first half PL goal at Old Trafford since Joe Cole for Chelsea in April 2010."

blackburn 3-0

did they not read the script?

WiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiBLACKBURNiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

[  ]  Expected 0-3



Goal Difference is sick close. 

Hold

wiiiiiiiii on 2-3  at 50s, niccccccccccce stu

Boom for Wigan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 ;sexybanana; ;karabiner; ;sexybanana; ;sexybanana; ;karabiner; ;karabiner;

Congrats to Wigan, well deserved in the end.

Good riddance to some of the Birmingham players, hope they never come back. (The players, not the club)  Also don't think I would dress up as a Banana on a day like this. 

In 2005, Liverpool finished 37 pts off 1st and came 5th (and won Champs Lge). This season Blackpool/B'ham 41 pts off 1st and are relegated*

*stolen from Times Journo on Twitter

Yep, it's been a pretty strange season where no team has actually been all that good.
Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal essentially still have a very, very long way to go if they want to catch up with ManU and Chelsea (Assuming ManU and Chelsea ever get back to their usual levels)