blonde poker forum

Hi,

This is my first post on blonde. Analysis of the following hand would be greatly appreciated.

Live £50 NLHE MTT

Level 7, 300/600 ante 50

9 handed table

Folds round to villain in the C/O who limps (playing 25kish). He has just arrived at the table no more than a couple hands ago, this his first hand played. Totally readless.

Folds to hero in the BB, I'm holding  Aspades Qs. Hero raises to 1375. Has 20k behind.

Villain flats.

Flop  Ad Jd C5 (pot 3500)

Hero bets 2200. Villain calls.

Turn  2s (pot 7900)

Hero bets 3500. Villain calls.

River  Td (pot 14900)

Hero?...

nice.

c/f now.

a lot more pre, I'd jam river c/f is close tho and might be better

this is like the nut worst card to jam imo. he's never calling worse if hes limping rpe and never folding better (maybe bottom two or something stupid but still, he checks these back enough to make it a c/f imo)

didnt see pre :(

2025 pre pls.

Its a £50 live game he still calls even if you popped it to 3k. As he has just come to the table it is highly unlikely he has air or a hand you are beating. Like pleno says most conceivable draws just got there and if we were not beat on the flop we are certainly behind know. I'm a nit tho and just feel you have inflated the pot with top pair and now have put yourself in this difficult spot

Pre, you mean?

Yeah, we know he's not folding. It's a value raise, innit.

2200-2600 pre. Think i'm check/folding the river

My thoughts during the hand.

My raise pre was a silly mistake. This level had only just started, and I had not realised. I did not have any smaller denomination chips so just had a 1k poasted out there. I raised thinking it was still 200/400. D'oh! Nevermind.

With the only info I had on villain, a limp, I decided to pin him as a meh reg, ie, he'd defo raise ATo+ from the C/O, so I raised for a bit of value.

When he calls my flop bet I certainly have weak ace combos in his range, certainly worse than AQ. I also don't see him flatting if he's hit two pair with a flush draw out there. I keep a flush draw in his range as not all semi decent players raise this flop to bloat the pot if the diamond does come.

When the brick lands on the turn I decide to lead nearly half pot. This I felt gave two pair combos the perfect spot to raise all in to block the flush draw, without me commiting TOO much. It also keeps the flush/straight draw in whilst extracting decent value if the diamond/T doesn't come.

So when he flats the turn I pretty much exactly have him on a Raggy ace, KQ or a flush draw.

When it hits I sigh a big fml and check. Jamming had crossed my mind as my line can look like a nut flush, but I felt that I did not have enough FE with just a pot sized shove to make a weaker flush fold enough times.

He bets out 8k.

The bet size screams of a value bet from a flush by a meh reg I know, but how often is a meh reg betting a raggy ace here? More than 1 in 2 to make a call profitable?

Opinions on my thoughts during the hand?

Seems very reasonable. The thought of getting him to fold a small flush wouldn't ever cross my mind though.

he's not folding small flush bro.

If he did have a flush I felt it wasn't super strong, as I think most meh regs raise the flop with the nut draw.

I guess I could bet like quarter pot on the turn and get the same info as I did with a half pot bet, but this might give me enough FE on the river to make the small flush fold out enough times to make the river shove profitable. My line would stink of a nut flush too, assuming he's a thinker.

forget all that mate, bluffing weak regs live is just a terrible idea full stop let alone bluffing them off flushes. Generally, the most i'll try and bluff them off is Ahigh, or very weak pairs, they just don't fold. You played it fine, I'd maybe even bet a little bigger on the turn, perhaps 2/3 pot, he wont fold Ax or a FD.

If he's really bad then you can put a tiny value/blocker bet on the river to get paid by Ax but not vs anyone halfdecent.

This. The blocker bet is an option, something like 2k but i think with stacks and lack of a decent read i prefer check/folding.

I b/f. Your not going to get raised on the river by 1 pair hands and we can get value from A6s type hands that he's called with.

Jamming seems very spewy.

I think your thought process in breaking down the hand is very good and demonstrates a lot of promise in your first post on the board. The guy limping out of the c/o makes me think we have a regular honest to goodness live player as well. As such he's deffo calling you down wtih worse flop turn. On the river I don't see a live reg turning a showdown hand into a bluff. In his mind you can easily be betting the fd and now check to induce, so he just checks his A-x behind. I think he's prob hit his man when he bets so no shame in c/f imo.

Many thanks, that means a lot to me as I've always respected your analysis of previous PHA hands. Cheers.

yeah should have qualified that i'd jam river if we made our pre flop bet sizing better

According to urban dictionary, your *THE* nit! Lolz

This is such a stupid question. He played his hand just like a flush draw, the flush draw gets there and you wanna know what to do?! Just fold

Lol. Err yes. Not sure if the urban dictionary was submitted by a follower or hater. Either way I like it

I'm smashing my fist into the table once Iv seen the river card then doing a chk praying he checks also, and then folding when he doesn't.

Kind of an interesting spot for him, I reckon this is a spot where he should bet his ENTIRE range, as in every single hand he has when he gets to the river.

As it so happens, you have owned my soul with this comment. If I was in his spot I too would feel obliged to bet. When he did bet, I shoved over the top of him, hoping he was only repping a flush.

Surprisingly enough he did indeed have  4d 6d, not the first time I've been thinking on another level to my opponents, where I obv end up leveling myself. D'oh. Too much thinking for a £50 comp.


What I have done is given myself an 72% winning opportunity to win a LOT of betting disks. I'm afraid I do not understand a nit's logic in this spot. Please could you tell me how you would play this hand? Fold pre?

have you read the book "ABC poker. how to beats idiots" and rule number 1 is you cant bluff idiots

Wait, what?

Betting with anything other than the immortal nuts is a bluff?

Who's leveling who here? I'm confused

you have a pair. what hand does your opponent have here that you are good against. rather than give yourself the chance to win a big pot you are more likely to lose a big pot. you have levelled yourself by over complicating your thought process. you have to know when you are a head or when your opponent can fold. in this senario the answer is neither. he aint ever folding a flush even if you have represented a better one. he would just shake his head and say "i know i'm beat i call" then when you showdown  all of a sudden he changes his mind and says "yeah i thought you could have had that too". you are playing idiots and treat em as such until such times as they prove you otherwise.

Not sure if serious.

You can't be, nobody with this 1800's logic can win as much money as you have. Sick level.

EDIT: just read the other thread, guess it isn't a level. Sigh.

yup i am serious. decent net players like titbean call live play donkaments for a reason. you are almost certainly sitting with 90% idiots in any tourney or cash game that you are going to encounter. until you grasp this concept you are gonna be up and down like a whores knickers but you can always blame the varience.
makes me piss my pants when 4 players who are sat at the same cash table and these are mates and regs and try stacking each other off coz it always ends in tears.
there's my first four idiots found ;)

If reversed do you fold a small flush...obv the getting to the river decision wouldn't happen the same in your boots....but in isolation would you call?

are you asking me? i am that vain i often people are talking to or about me all the time/ sorry for hi jacking the thread but i am probably giving away a bit more imformation about myself than i should not to be laughed at. similar hand has occured with lildave on another thread. if i have a small flush then i obviously call here unless i have information to tell me i am beat. this information will have come from how the hand was played down the streets and the villans reactions to my bets/calls etc. tbh its very rare that i get to this situation for a number of reasons. we are in the bb here and may have been forced to play this hand due to pot odds pre flop then we obv hit the flop. but you have to be aware that with small suited cards we are in danger of getting stacked by the bigger flush (yes i am that nitty). but if you wanna play small suited then your aim is obvly to make a flush so take your medicine and call. if you win all well and good. if you get fucked as happens more often than not in donkaments then its another lesson learned. sorry its not the in vogue answer but its my honest one for playing idiots.... if i'm playing anyone half decent i might just call with Queen hi here ;)

Yeah...twas for yourself.....was curious...the thought that I was beat might have almost crossed my mind as I snapcall....rightly or wrongly..

i just dont see any hand that you beat here. i am an expert at playing idiots. i am results orientated and can teach you a game that crushes home/pub games through to Dtd games were you are playing idiots. even the irish open and wsop main is full of idiots for the first couple of days