blonde poker forum

Exact details may be sketchy, but thy're good enough for discussion.

300 @ DTD

Level 7, 200/400/25

Folds to Villain in mp2. He's playing around 17k. Opens to 925.

I'm on the button and 3bet to 2200 with  Ks 9s, my favourite hand. I'm playing 15k.

Blinds fold, Villain calls.

Flop  Kc 5d Kh (pot 5200)

Villain checks. I check.

Turn  Qs (pot 5200)

Villain checks.

I bet 4000. Villain calls.

River  2d (pot 14200)

Villain bets 4000, I sigh shove. Villain calls.

My thoughts on this hand. Villain has been playing very nitty. Has a decent fold to 3bet %.

So I 3bet to get the fold. I 3bet small, as I knew that if he did have a premium hand he would certainly come back over the top.
With him having folded to a few 3bets, I felt that a 3b/f wouldn't be the dirtiest play against this individual.

He ponders a little and decides to flat. I have him on a pretty tight range once he does this. Like 99-JJ, AJ-AQ, maybe even KQ. As tight as he's been I can't see KT-KJ in his 3bet call range, especially considering the stack sizes.

Oh herro, I seem to have flopped the world.

He checks. I decide to check too, for deception.

He checks the turn, so I just size the bet on the turn to get it all in on the river.

He leads the river. *sigh*


The main reason I wanted to post this was to see how many nits would reply back with fold pre.

Before your second post, I did not know what was for discussion. Now i know what your objective is, I am a nit and am folding pre.

Then as played I am not in love with your play, the river shove, why?

I'm not good enough to fold in this spot, do you feel I could/should be?

I mean I'm not calling and leaving myself with 10bigs. My plan since the flop has been to try and get it all in. I'm a man of my word. I mean really, after the 3bet/c, what can he have that's beating me?

whats wrong with 10 bigs?

AK,55,KQ,KJ,K10,22,QQ

As played wiith him leading the river I think I am happy to call behind. Not too sure he is bet calling too much for us to be value shoving in this spot, especially if as you say he is a very nitty player who has just check called the turn and lead the river. I fold pre and am much happier to 3b pre with 56ss, 78ss, etc if we have him polarised to the range you stated.

Bet flop, bet turn,   it would no doubt be call river, stand up, say sigh Gg and leave feeling like you've been taken from behind!

Yet despite this, we shove the river when he leads into us?

Are you aware of the WA/WB concept?

Oppo has made boat on turn??

Oh, and checking here isn't deception, betting is

so 2010. Obv checking is deception in 2011, 2012 is open jamming. Wait what year are we in?

3b pre is abso fine, sizing is good.

flop I would DEFO bet cos you look a lil more "airbally" than chking, chking kinda reps some sort of pot control/showdown value type hand like JJ/TT or w/e and there is no way he is folding ANY pair when we Cbet the flop, for deception, betting flop, chking turn and the betting river might be better if we don't think we can 3street for value, even though that is a pretty notorious value line it seems to work at live poker lol

Dont even really hate the river jam as his bet is kinda blockerish, i usually jam over these as bluffs lol so not sure if id wanna jam for value here, mmmmmm idk prolly just call seems pretty unlikely that we're beat, but the only hands we could conceivably value own is AQ/AA.

and pls 3bet preflop because you think someone has a high F3b% and not cos you have your favorite hand lol

:P

Are you seeing anyone at the moment. I am looking for someone to start seeing my mates wife

Pre - good

Flop - defo cbet for reasons stated above

Turn - fine

River - shove, not loving it though. didnt examine betsize in relation to pot. but my general line would be - small-med bet - shove. largebet, flat.

Ye bet flop

yeah loving the 3b pre, disagree with the poster who said 56s 78s are better hands to do it with, although probs do it with those hands too.

on the flop i bet 1550, don't mind the check actually given your SPR

river is tough, think i shove too, you have a really good hand.

its a really wierd line from the oppo, its kinda fun to chk call turns and donk rivers, I never really ever do it bluffing though cos people never fold when shit's suspicious

speshly live when people LOVE to "trap" suprised he doesnt chk/r QQ/KQ

The four of us should probably actually play poker rather than grind PHA all day

ban for trolling

I'm never calling the river here, I'm either off home or I'm moving on up with my 60bb's.

His line is really strange for his range. His line makes total sense if he has me crushed, but I just couldn't see what he was crushing me with. Case K is possible but improbable so happy to take my chance against KA/KQ, I'm almost certain he would reraise with QQ. I have pretty much anything else in his range crushed. I felt a rock could easily be taking this line with AA/AQ/JJ/TT/99 as he 'must be ahead' having seen me check the flop, and then bet the turn on a steal.

Turns out the young man had flatted me oop with pocket 5's. gg sir, gg.

Don't understand this logic. You mean you're either folding or you're shoving?

The only time I'd consider folding in this spot is if a T, J or A land.

I'm never ever just flatting here. I'm either way ahead or way behind, with 2/3s of my stack committed if I call, I'd prefer to shove (with the small %chance of picking up a fold, I still have to factor it in) and take maximum value if I'm ahead, rather than keep my tournament life alive by calling in case I am behind.

75bigs or bust (with a small % chance of also taking a big pot uncontested) vs 55bigs or 10bigs. Guess a lot of people choose the later. I'm not one of them.

If this is the way you approach poker, you need to have a serious rethink.

What range of hands do you give your opponent that calls a river shove? Because the only hands I can give him are one's that crush us. The mere fact you then say to justify a shove is all wrong. Your opponent is capable of attempting to value bet both hands that beat us and hand's that don't, but he will almost never ever call with a worse hand meaning that is absolutely zero point in shoving.

Your reasoning for not flatting re: not wanting to play a 10bb stack is flawed and quite frankly stupid.

What are you expecting a shove to get called by that you beat?

He could easily be value betting AA (unlikely aces but I have to keep them in there), AQ, JJ, TT, 99 which are deffo hands in his range. As long as he can't put me on a K (which he may struggle to do given my line) then he's ahead. Could also be a blocker bet to try and get to showdown with these hands.

He's far too committed to justify folding these hands after I come over the top for not a great deal more. If he does fold then I take the pot down uncontested, nice.

Hands that crush us are obv 55. But there's no way I can see him flatting this pre oop.

AK and QQ he's certainly 4betting after what I saw he shoved on Pizzecato in an earlier hand for a decent amount of bb's. Especially as he's oop. No way he's called pre and come this far with 22.

That only leaves KQ to crush us. Not many combos of this hand left huh. To me, that leaves his range behind what I have as there are more combo's of my assigned value range for him than combos that crush us.

If he has played one of these hands trickily then I'm happy saying gg after my shove.

Just my thoughts anyway. If anybody's willing to point out exactly why my thinking is flawed then I'm all ears. :)

Cheers

These are your words not mine.


That pretty much rules out AA, AK, QQ and JJ (JJ is close). He probably flats 10s through to 2s (given that he's flatted 5s, he's flatting every pair it would seem).

Villain pretty much never ever donk leads for 4k on the river with AQ, 10s or worse. Never. You seem to be forgetting he's donk leading the river. He can never ever be bluffing here, his line represents no sort of missed draw; therefore what is he really going to be doing that with? If he has AQ he's almost certainly check calling the river.

I really don't think you've given the strength of his possible holdings on the river enough thought. There's very few value betting hands in there which makes the river shove terrible.

This idea of "go big or go home" that you seem to have with regards to the river shove is a losing play over time. Ask any player you respect for their opinion (and who is a winning player) and I'd be amazed if they advocated a shove here.

I find a fold nearly impossible due to pot odds etc, but it's an easy call and when he shows the hand that he does, I then start to consider the next spot available to me to get my stack in. Shoving is just bad. No doubt about it.

Keys told me to quit

Wanna go halves on a fish and chip shop instead?

river is a super easy snap call. were good almost always but he never calls with worse and we can use our river rep later on in live poker which is important, i.e jamming river with weak showdown as a bluff w/blockers. We also get to see what he's calling 3b's with. Opposite side of the coin is people dont see we are 3b k9ss.

Many thanks for the replies guys.

I don't really know anybody to ask their opinion, just me and myself, so many thanks for the advice.

I still don't get the call on the river.

If I feel I'm ahead how can I only call? I'm loosing tons of value.

If I feel I'm behind, how can I justify calling? I'll throw in the 4k to see what he has just to be certain I'm behind?

How is calling the most +ev move? If the donk lead/ thin value bet/ blocker bet seems incred strong to you, and you don't feel he'd do this with AQ TT JJ, how can you call?

I know its 4k to win 18k so only need 22% equity, is this your reasoning?

thinking you're ahead is not a reason to bet/raise to get value.

The times you think you are ahead and jam just for him to fold + the times you think you are ahead and jam just for him to snap you off when you are crushed massively outweigh the times you jam for 'value' and get paid off by a worse hand. ergo it is a bad play to jam, massively -ev. only imo of course.  With your knowledge of oppo and the way the hand played only ever calling the river.

If you are ahead:

Call and win 4k.
Shove and win 4k as he'll fold anything worse

If you are behind:

Call and lose 4k
Shove and lose your stack

Therefore calling is better.

The shove is only like a min raise.

Why would villain not call the shove? It's another 4k to win a 26k pot, he only needs 15% equity.

If you say we should call his river bet, why shouldn't he call our raise? Essentially the same pot odds?

If he's not calling our raise with worse, how do you justify a call yourself? Even though pot odds are extremely favourable, if your certain that he's uber strong then fold is surely the correct decision.


What reasons do you need to bet or raise for value sir?

Villain has either bet the river for value or as a bluff.

If he's bet for value the worst hand he has is Kx

Ok he could possibly have AA but I think he even check calls that.

The only hands you beat are Kx where x is lower than 9 and not matching one of those other little cards or the unlikely AA.

So for your shove to get called and you to be ahead you need him to have one of those Kx hands or AA.

If you had complete air here then your shove would actually be a lot better. I mean what else can you have apart from the king minimum right?

Without some funky dynamics meaning that he could be value betting light this is always a call.

These game theory spots are really crucial you get your head round mate, I think CFs post is the clearest.

It's an extension of the bluff-catcher concept - say you have KQ on AK222 and your opponent bets.

a) your opponent is bluffing
b) your opponent is betting for value A, 2 or K.

It makes no sense to raise because if you're ahead he'll just fold all his air, and if you're behind he's not going to fold an Ace or anything so no point raising.

If you can't raise for value and you can't raise as a bluff, don't raise.

In this case however I disagree that villain won't ever call worse though. Tbh i've forgotten most of the hand now lol but if the river bet is blockerish AND the shove is only a tiny raise then ppl in these live comps will just sigh and shrug and chuck the rest it usually muttering "too much in there" or similar.

Spot on!

The way to solve the spot once and for all is to decide what the gap is between the range that bet/folds and the range that bet/calls the river AFTER betting the 4k, obviously its near on impossible to nail but if we use the info/reads this thread has thrown up


Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
Ks9s,                           75.0000%,75.0000%,0.0000%
"99-QQ, AQ, KQ, 55",    25.0000%,25.0000%,0.0000%

Lets say his range to bet the 4k is these hands for sake of argument. Obv we know we're now not folding as we need ~22% to call it off.

Lets give this his calling range after we jam.

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
Ks9s,                      57.1429%,57.1429%,0.0000%
"QQ, AQ, KQ, 55",   42.8571%,42.8571%,0.0000%

the jam is going to cost us 8800, to win 31,800. leaving us needing to be called by a worse hand 27% of the time.

SO I honestly reckon this is prolly a jam in this spot.

***HOWEVER - The points made previously are still very valid, especially the point piestack made about thinking you're ahead NOT necessarily being the reason to raise/bet for value, like Alex said, whenever we're betting or raising the two primary reasons should be,

a) we're betting for value, to get called by X range of hands which villain can legitimately hold
b) we're betting to make villain fold X hands in his range, which we think he can have and will fold,

if you reckon you're 90% vs his range in a spot, but he calls with worse 0% of the time then we shouldn't be raising, whereas we could have shown profit in this particular spot by jamming when we're only 40% vs his calling range on the river.

Hey.

Pre-flop is fine.

There is no such thing as way ahead/way behind on the river. There is only ahead and behind. This is an important distinction because they require different responses.

If the villain is at all competent at poker I would bet the flop. I'm only checking if I think he doesn't understand C-bets and light 3-bets.

It's unclear to me how much more a raise on the river would be but these guys did a good job of explaining why raising is not automatically the correct play just because you think you are probably ahead.

not gonna quote the whole superlim post but its better written than how i could be saying it innit. also agree with the shoving for them what reasons said in above aforementioned post. 

Cheers guys. I don't have pokerstove installed in my head, but I knew it was marginal at the time. Many thanks for that analysis suuPRlim. :)

Many thanks for everyone's advice too, appreciate it. Ta

I don't reply to these things very often as i suppose i don't have the confidence.  It always  amazes me to some of the concullsions and reads  you lovely people come to,  all of these mid game/hand.


However my thought are rather more basic and that is, if i have the worst hand i am out, i have nothing to gain ifi shove and  he does  LD, i can and we all have got back in a Tourney with 10bb's, where as if we are wrong we are out of the door.  For that reason alone i only call river.   Is my 10 bb better than nothing thinking  flawed?


Steve 

You can run the numbers with whatever ranges you like I still don't like the river shove.

Fair enough it may be mathematically correct but the risk/reward just isn't worth it imo.

I'm not a big fan of the "it's my tournament life" mentality but in this case I'm not risking getting ko'd for the sake of winning an extra 4800 chips if he happens to have a hand good enough to call but bad enough to lose.

Interesting hand though.

^^^^^^
I like this way of thinking too.

haha ul matt

lol. just gotup jnr

Sigh.

No Matt actually makes a really good point, sure assuming the maths of it works 100% assuming that each desicion is =EV, like in a cash game winning $500 and loosing $500 is a loss/win of $500, whereas in a tourney busting out of the tourney is pretty much always more expensive than doubling it is beneficial.

like if you have 10,000 chips and a $chipEV of $1,000, doubling up rarely increases your chipEV to $2,000 but busting out will defo reduce it to $0.

So the "tourney life" argument does have merit, but most of the time you just need to embrace a bit of variance if you wanna win stuff (not that I would know how to win donkaments lol)

^^^^^^^^^^^^
good post IMO...  ;)

You may not be king of donkaments but you sure can party by all accounts. Gl in the main event. X

You are right, as long as the numbers are close. Say we think raising is +EV, but only very slightly. Then we could call to preserve our tournament life. Just be careful not to give away too much value doing this, because a lot of people take it too far. You have to be willing to take risks to be successful.

Also, don't be shy. Nobody learns much from only posting their opinion when they are sure they are right. We all make tons of mistakes and being willing to search for and correct them is crucial. It's also the very purpose of Hand Analysis. :) Think about it, being the worst player on the forum would be a great opportunity!


Another Steve