blonde poker forum

Reads on villain: Plays a pretty tight game. Has played fairly solid all session,  but is gambling a bit more now. I've noticed he keeps making bets with his shrapnel as if he is about to leave soon as just wants to get rid of it.

We raise in the hi jack with Jd Td to £12 in a straddled pot. A solid reg flat calls the button playing 1k. Villain 3balls the SB to 36 (his change). I call (playing 450ish). Button calls.

Flop (115) Ad Qh 9s

Villain bets 60, with 300 behind. We?

Expect villain to have a strong Ace here most of the time but have seen him fold top pair to pressure before. Sees me a aggro though and yet to call me down so may take a stand this time...There's also the reg on the button who covers both of us to consider.

Flatting here best? If so, just giving up on brick turns if he fires again?

I flat here...which means it's probably wrong.

Not a fan of the flat pre, bit too shallow I think especially when the button is pretty much always gunna call too and you pretty much need to flop big to continue.

As played I fold flop. Flatting isn't great because of the guy behind and I'd expect him to barrel the turn a huge %age of the time. I also wouldn't expect him to be firing into both of you particularly light so he's always bombing the turn on bricks and sometimes finds the fold a K turn. Then if the turn is a diamond and he bets again you're really going to want to call despite not getting the right pot odds or implied odds if he bombs the turn.

Fold pre. Not deep enough and also don't like the 'solid reg' who's obviously going to flat behind with position on us.

Fold now. We've got nothing.

Calling to get lucky seems pretty bad.

you are looking to the villan as your spot in this hand. you already know he is getting ready to leave so is very unlikely to get heavily involved in a big pot unless he has a massive  hand. you have seen him give up top pair so your implied odds are not there. the fact that a better player is also in the hand and with position on you just compounds your dilema. get out whilst the goings good to avoid a spaz off ;).

damm matt just posted and for his image i hate to agree with him.

in that case carry on back door flush it or make nut str8 and confirm to the reg that his decision to hunt you out and come sit to your left was a good one and in the long term you are gonna put his kids through college

this is why I don't play often anymore...I'm a donk.

I am not share I get this, we don't call the flop because we might make a spew call after the turn with bad odds?  Surely we shouldn't be just folding here if this is a possibility, we should be giving up poker? 

Then again I am not even sure why he always bombs the turn, or why the other fella always  barrels either.   I didn't realise live cash was so tough in the UK.

I call here

PS blinds and straddle amounts pleae

No thats not the main reason for a fold - its just another possible scenario that is not good for our hero - and its one that occurs often enough for it to factor into our flop decision imo. When we can turn a chunk more equity and still not profitably get the money in/see a river thats normally a very compelling argument to fold the flop.


Looks like I'm off down the job centre then


Because this flop smashes a strong-ish 3bet range pretty hard so I expect him to have flopped pretty well a lot of the time. The guy isn't deep enough to be giving the correct implied odds to make the straight so to make a flop call profitable he needs to be giving up on the turn a decent amount of the time which I don't think he is on this board because it connects pretty well with his 3betting range. Add to that the fact that you're not closing the flop action so you're not even guaranteed to see a turn because the button who he have pegged as a good reg can wake up with a hand behind too.


Alex makes the pot 115 on the flop which would make it 1/2/5 but I don't remember them letting you straddle to 5, I always thought it was 4 at DTD. Maybe they changed it though.

OK, quick one,

What do we do if we have flatted the 60, solid reg raises to 150 and villain shoves..you look over at Solid Reg and he is ready to move in as well?

do we then stack off?

lol. you cant sign on dan. you are still too young.

Well if you assume that the button will always call behind then theres going to be 955 in the pot (some of it a side pot between you and btn) and Alex has ~420 left on the flop so 360 to call so you'd be getting 2.65 to 1 so you need about 27.5% equity to call it off.

Take away the backdoor flush draw and it becomes a fold though


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,086,309  games     0.049 secs    22,169,571  games/sec

Board: Ad Qs 9h
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    30.040%     29.57%    00.47%            321203         5123.33   { JdTd }
Hand 1:    34.945%     30.59%    04.36%            332256        47349.33   { AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, A9s, AJo+, A9o }
Hand 2:    35.016%     30.60%    04.42%            332398        47979.33   { AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }

So you don't call here on the turn with bad odds then?  Otherwise I am not sure why you think you need to go down the job centre.  So don't see the fact we may spew call after the turn as a factor at all.  Though your last point has some merit, I think it relies too much on him jamming the turn.

I accept that you may call fold some of the time (maybe 10% tops).  But much more of the time the fella behind simply calls and we are sitting pretty with the right implied odds.

and of this range
{ AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }
he bombs just AA, QQ, 99  and AQ?  AK and AJ, doesn't your average live nit start praying for the river on that board?  and nobody ever checks the set on the turn?  or bets half his stack?

Its live cash, pre is fine and calling the flop is fine.

blinds/straddles 1/2/4 therefore pot = 36*3 = 108 + 1+2+4 = 115. Clearly the smallblind should be subtracted as he's raised. So 114. Let's pretend there was a shortstack allin for £1 making the pot 115.

Really surprised to hear fold pre.

It's 24 more, we'll create a pot of 115 by calling and have JTsuited. We are 450 deep vs the button and 360 deep vs the fish who I have a decent grasp on his game and feel I can profitably play this IP.

As for the flop, I'm not worried about the button raising because all the hands he raises the flop with (sets/two pairs) he 3bs pre. A9s Q9s perhaps not, but its a tiny %of his range to be worried about.

call pre 100%, perfect hand to go 3way with this psr. Flop play, close, prefer raise calling it off to calling though i think. We rep just enough value combos to get away with it/only 1 real bluff. Prob with flatting flop is i dont really like our turn options if villain sizes badly (big) which he will do. fun hand would love to hear more responses, rupert/keys?

Also Dan, if we turn FD we surely can call another bet profitably.

Board: Ad Qh 9s 4d
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    31.818%     31.82%    00.00%               546            0.00   { JdTd }
Hand 1:    68.182%     68.18%    00.00%              1170            0.00   { AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }



If we flat the 60 otf then the pot ott will be ~240. He has 300 left so we're calling £x to win £540 so with 31.8% we can call up to 172

yeh, i think its interesting. i mean i didnt like calling the flop, i didnt like raising with awkward stack sizes, though can see it's perhaps best. and i didnt like folding ldo.

lol by the job centre bit I mean we all make bad calls sometimes


I'm assuming that you plucked the 10% number out of thin air - you're suggesting that only 10% of his preflop 3betting range 2 barrels this board? You mention the 'average live nit' but what do you think he's 3betting? If its 88+, AJ+ then he's firing 2 on this board a big %age of the time.

He doesn't have to jam the turn to make us fold. Even if he only bets half his stack on the turn he's betting 150 with 150 behind. You still calling then?

I also think that you're overestimating how often the button overcalls the flop. I can't think of many hands that he peels when Alex calls the cbet on a reasonably dry board

This assumes that we get the rest 100% of the time. You only turn a flush draw 20% of the time too

The draw is actually decently disguised though, can't see him being too scared of backdoor diamonds if it comes in

Also I didn't say that calling pre was bad, I just said I'm not a huge fan of it. Obv in game i'm never folding pre.

I think when I posted that I assumed button would fold a lot more than he actually will which is pretty much never

I think thats a fair enough assumption though?

When turn bricks we have to fold to another bet of course, but I think the backdoor flush is actually pretty important as it means 20% of the time we can profitably see the river as well, thus fully realising our flop equity, without putting the lot in.

Pre, dont see the button EVER folding pre. He may overcall the flop but hey thats fine. As I said before, he's very rarely raising the flop. 

the player left to act on the flop didn't 3 bet pre ffs.  we call here we se the turn 90% of the time, hardly think this is exagerrating.

Yeah might even buy at 90%

When you said 'you might call fold' I assumed you meant call flop fold turn

The point being that we rarely see a river because imo the 3bettor is also betting the turn a big %age of the time since this board smashes his 3betting range and we can't profitably peel the turn unless we turn a diamond and even then its close

Dunno its live. They pot control Ak on the turn by checking and stuff

Definitely disagree - don't think he needs 2pr+ to fire again

Well the only non 2pair hand is AK so its basically the same thing anyway.

If turn is QJT98 they are checking AK way more than you think btw. Plus he is check folding KK JJ TT 88

This aint Vegas. Its semi-north England, people are looking to fold more than they are to stack off. Probably doesnt wanna go home and face a life of obscurity with his missus so is happy making "folds"

sorry, thought one of us must be misunderstanding the other

dubai is too bloody good. he must be over 25 too

Ah jason, the perfect man to ask

You checking AK here on a  Q/J/T/9/8 turn?

the smart thing to say is it all depends on the situation that presents itself and on all the information that i have gathered.

hand on heart i check the turn in all probability in a cash game and i think its close to 100% of the time in a tourney. but thats me innit

irrespective of wether it's a good/bad peel no1 ever folds JT of blue to a 3bet in a live cash game, cos it's just such a fucking sick hand :)

also alex, this is live poker so it's not JT of blue, it's JT of pointy red which makes quite a big difference.

what was the turn? i'd call pre and call flop

Turn was black 3 he bombs 150 with 150back. I fold.

Ffs. Do you know how much of people's time you have wasted on this hand. Were the hell did the 4d turn come from. The likes of me Dubai and dan Morgan are far too important to be wasting time on hands like this. I bare my soul on being such a nit with the AK response to dan and now the secret is out I'm gonna have to start changing my game. All for a pointless stupid hand where you call a 3 bet trying to get lucky. Fwiw when you hitva flush with j10 you are stacking of too a bigger flush 100%, but then I guess you will just say it's a cooler. God I can't get my breath. Please post some hands you win coz there must be one or two coz every session starts with you being in a hole but getting out of it in the end you bloody yoyo. ;)

tl;dr

No problem. Will sEnd it one word at a time when you get to vegas

nhnh

good hand in a live context btw.

except that its pointy red and not blue