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Title: long term valoooooo Post by: ACE2M on July 11, 2011, 01:18:55 PM 1.6 on Obama to get a 2nd term is huge. Should be 1/3.
Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: boldie on July 11, 2011, 01:49:02 PM 1.6 on Obama to get a 2nd term is huge. Should be 1/3. Does look a big enough price as I just can't see a credible Republican running against him Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: ACE2M on July 11, 2011, 01:54:24 PM 1.6 on Obama to get a 2nd term is huge. Should be 1/3. Does look a big enough price as I just can't see a credible Republican running against him romney is credible but the republicans as a whole are just in a mess. Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: redarmi on July 11, 2011, 04:13:57 PM It is probably good value but the time value of the money means it isn't going to be great in terms of best return for your money unless you can get on on credit.
Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: AndrewT on July 11, 2011, 04:17:12 PM It is probably good value but the time value of the money means it isn't going to be great in terms of best return for your money unless you can get on on credit. This - also you're not going to get much on a political bet. Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: kukushkin88 on July 11, 2011, 04:20:54 PM Would be a huge price if it was in a country with a good track record for fair democratic elections. Still think it's probably value but this will be a dirty election even by traditional Republican standards.
Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: ACE2M on July 11, 2011, 04:24:21 PM betfair prices. can easily get several grand down around the price.
50 % return on investment over a year is pretty good imo. Lot of money in bank accounts making 3.2 % over the same period. Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: Teacake on July 11, 2011, 07:03:45 PM 1.6 on Obama to get a 2nd term is huge. Should be 1/3. Does look a big enough price as I just can't see a credible Republican running against him What's Arnie Vinick doing these days? Title: Re: long term valoooooo Post by: redarmi on July 11, 2011, 07:25:08 PM betfair prices. can easily get several grand down around the price. 50 % return on investment over a year is pretty good imo. Lot of money in bank accounts making 3.2 % over the same period. You aren't getting 50% return on investment though. You think he is a genuine 1/3 shot and he is available at 1.6. So your expectation is 75% (1/3)*1.60 = 120 so you only actually make 20% on your money and you are getting 6.7% compounded over two years without the variance. That is without taking into consideration credit risk, Betfair commission and the opportunity cost of the short terms bets you could make with the same bankroll etc. |