blonde poker forum

Initial opener is a good player and has been opening liberally, 3 bettor is a fish but don't know much more, 4 bettor has fishy sharkscope and stats (27/13 but only 22 hands)

We are about 25/250 left


PokerStars Game #65018726537: Tournament #430020016, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (2500/5000) - 2011/07/24 21:29:35 WET [2011/07/24 16:29:35 ET]
Table '430020016 234' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: GO99APE (244519 in chips)
Seat 2: schwadda1976 (387814 in chips)
Seat 3: epitomised (217491 in chips)
Seat 4: Calvin32 (116719 in chips)
Seat 5: ediguadro (88245 in chips)
Seat 6: MrRepsak (325475 in chips)
Seat 7: gresuay (144852 in chips)
Seat 8: m.van damme (56604 in chips)
Seat 9: Finspb812 (213957 in chips)
GO99APE: posts the ante 500
schwadda1976: posts the ante 500
epitomised: posts the ante 500
Calvin32: posts the ante 500
ediguadro: posts the ante 500
MrRepsak: posts the ante 500
gresuay: posts the ante 500
m.van damme: posts the ante 500
Finspb812: posts the ante 500
epitomised: posts small blind 2500
Calvin32: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [Qs Qh]
ediguadro: folds
MrRepsak: raises 5001 to 10001
gresuay: folds
m.van damme: raises 46103 to 56104 and is all-in
Finspb812: folds
GO99APE: raises 46103 to 102207
schwadda1976: folds
epitomised:

i puke fold

puke some more

keep puking

close down screen

never watch hand review

would not be folding QQ here im afraid

Might fold tens and aq, but fist pump jamming jj ak+ here tbh

we have 40bbs which is huge this late in teh WU

we are potentially at risk in 2 spots

people just arent randomly aggro on a sunday - i would need rock solid reads to be getting in 40bbs when we can no doubt just keep a steady chip up from here

Im not for 1 second saying its an easy fold and without thinking about it i probs snap jam - but meh - fold and keep chipping up imo

What guy said.  Doesn't really matter how fishy the 3 and 4 bettors are stats wise I am pretty sure they aren't showing aggression without a hand at this point.  TBH I think call/fold are probably both okay but it is very marginal.  if I thought i had a big edge at the table i think I would just fold.

No way JJ is a fistpump here, I wouldn't click the fold button with QQ though.

fold!
what happened in the hand and the tourney - any good?

wow ppl r nitty, if jj aint a fistpump what is ak?

Even I fold here

I certainly don't think I'm a nit lol, just don't think JJ is a fistpump when a random min cold 4b vs 3b shove, AK isn't a fistpump either, doubt I fold AK though, I'd fold JJ without really solid reads.

KK+ to get it in here for me.

Happily folding AK, puke folding QQ.

I know orig rsr and 3bettor r kinda imp here, but obv the 4bettors range is the most imp in this hand, i think even the dirtiest of nits shld be isolating/getting it in here with the top 4.2% of hands 99 aqs+ and we are a very decent 56% v that range.

Also as often the 4bettor who obv we have no fold equity against and along with OR can felt us- has some of his ace outs counterfitted by the other 2 in the hand, we can often be way over 60% fav with queens v mr 4b. OR also has a pretty wide range as does the fishy 3bettor imo.

Yeah i cld stove all 4 plyrs range 4 mway action but i gen dont think it influences me hugely here.

With jj we are a 48% dog v the 4b range so i guess i aint fistpumping neither, tho with the poss of counterfeits im often gambling here.

With ak we are actually a 43% dog which surprises me, i guess with more of our outs also counterfeited  im def more likely to pass ak here than jj for sure.

I guess i could look more closer at orig rsr and fishy 3bettors ranges but i def think they are much wider and i am def happily fistpumping qq in here.

Already expecting ppl 2 say 4btr does not have 99 and aqs in his range here, well imo he does and if he dsnt he shld have.

QQ+/AK

Can you post your stove please.

won't let me copy the stupid thing and am not gonna write all that out while grinding!

but yeah

qq v 4.2%=56.445%
   
jjv 4.2%=48.598%

akv 4.2%=43.838%

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

was it something like that Nico?

The thinking that AK is a worse hand equity wise here than JJ is defo wrong imo.  id be hating life with JJ and snaping it in with AK.


Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
AK,                                                                                    51.6085%,43.6512%,16.0713%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",    18.4661%,16.4997%,4.0895%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                                29.9255%,23.5882%,12.8313%

Meh fold for me.

Yeah all this stove stuff is great but with MCs stack and position of tournament isn't it better to fold and pick spots to exploit later on rather than potentially get this QQ in miles behind against a very likely KK or AA.

Stove is god.

I'm always looking to win this type of a comp from 40 even 250 out, not merely survive/ladder by missing out on such +ev spots.

I gen still don't even think this is that close, i now agree that jj/ak is marginal and that we should insta fold tens and aqstd without specific detailed stats/reads on especially the cold 4bettor.

Part of the reason i don't think it's that close is from mc's detailed description of a fishy 3bettor and thus a spot where the 4bettor can def isolate wider than one might imagine.

Why does anyone have to have kk+ in this hand?

we are not 40 out - we are 250 out

I think you also need to factor in the tourney - its a sunday, its not a 100r with a field of high stakes regs. We have 40bbs (which is huge in this tourney). There will be lots more spots where we can effcetively utilse this stack to abuse the players who are obvioulsy loooking to ladder. Flicking it in here with at best 50% equity seems to be the opposite of what you are suggesting you can achieve  - and that is the reason I fold, not because i think we are behind 100% of the tiime

Who do we only hold 50% equity against here?

Just noticed the OP details the 4bettor as having fishy stats-must have missed that, although tbh that makes me even more inclined to get this in. If 4bettor was better i'd expect him only to at worst isolate with 9's and aqstd+, but if he's a fish himself he can on occasion have some random spazzy hands-effectively holdings like 66/kq/a10+ imo. Thus i wld include a random spazz hand like kq in his range just for balance and that makes it a cartwheel fistpump jammage.

If yr saying we only have 50% at best equity against the 4bettor then you are giving him a range of merely the top 2.6% of hands which is tens and akstd+, so yr saying the guy folds ako are you? Adding that increases our equity by 2% itself.

I gen think people over complicate some simple situations where we all know what the correct decision is instinctively. IRL i doubt many of us bar the most nitty pass qq here, but upon reflection we start to worry about such terms as 'tournament life'-yuck, and 'better spots'-double yuck and even looking at money jumps-treble yuck but i guess we are all human-i've been guilty myself b4.

I really do find it hard to believe any top online mtt player-like bram itt for example, passes qq here but as i'm not one i'll try and keep my mind open to ideas.

Not something i'm great with but i'm learning! :)

I think nico you've gotten muddled on a few points.

Firstly, according to the ranges you described on page one QQ has less than 25% equity in the 3way, and $EV of the hand is even lower given that the bigger pot is vs the tighter range. (see the stove i posted a few posts back.

If like you say we widen the 4bettors range to include some "spazzes" (lets widen his PP range to 66+ and throw KQs in as well)

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  32.6483%,31.8260%,1.6463%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",    31.8919%,30.9233%,1.9388%
"AA-66,AK,AxQx,KxQx",                                                       35.4598%,34.3448%,2.2315%

Now admittedly we don;t need 50% here but I think the above situation is the most optimistic ranges we can assign,

Remember we're making the assumption that the other player in the hand never folds, which after a 3bet  and a cold 4 he now may well fold, which is actually worse for us because the main profit on the play given how close the 4bettors range is to our hand comes from the overlay of the weaker range..


like in the other thread the stove stuff is actually the only way to solve this hand, so it is great lol - but the point you're making which is important to this i think is how much $EV we gain in this tournament by winning this hand as opposed to how much $EV we lose by losing it given how tight the spot prolly is. There are i'm sure plenty of spots in tournaments  **DISCLAIMER* not very experienced in online donkaments** where you have no fold equity and with a slight advantage over a villains range you lose more in equity by losing than you gain in equity by winning.

Having rambled on about all this I still don't really know what I'd do, I think instinctively in-game i'd go with it, but I do think it's prolly pretty dam close.

Respect all of what you are saying, obv you are much more experienced in use of stove than me mate, i've only just started using it consisitently.

In fairness i don't think i was muddled as i did state earlier that i was just working out our equity against the 4bettors range-not the 3bettors, and not the orig rsr who can also felt us. Lazy indeed but not mixed up.

I do play a great deal of online donkaments- and would never fold in this situation but that's just me. I gen don't think in real time most ppl would either, yeah it looks a little snug in terms of how confident we can be that we are ahead of our villain's range-but tournament poker is all about very quick estimations and playing such premium hands strongly and not meekly.

Live i think we'd often fold v this action, online i just don't see how without specific ultra nit stats, here we have the opposite with the 3 and 4bettors seemingly fish with possible spazz tendencies.

Thanks for the input guys.

My feeling at the time was: Ugh this is an ugly spot, but I sure am folding QQ here.

In-game I would have folded JJ and AK, AKs and I'm not sure.

From stoves and such it looks like a borderline kinda spot. Perhaps with a read that the 4-bettor is tight/unlikely to spaz or something you can fold, otherwise QQ+ looks pretty reasonable.

Yeah, I agree I wouldnt fold either prolly lol - I imagine you're instincts for donkaments are far greater than mine, but I've done a stove or two and just trying to shore the numbers up for ya :)

fwiw ProPokerTools have an app called odds oracle and it is far >>>>>>>>>>>> pokerstove, costs $30 but I would recomend highly.

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

Yeah but it's a bit different here since the 3b is a 3b shove for 10bbs so the 4bet isn't expecting the 3b to be that strong here.

Agree.

For me it really is all about the 4b range, the other 2 don't have 2 be anywhere near as strong.

Also ty lil dave for pokertoools info, will ck it out.

Mc i know it really dsnt matter, im just nosey tho, fwiw what were the holdings here?

Yeah I know.

They're both making committing raises in to the big stack with others left to act as well. This is a decent indicator of strength.

I admit there's a strong chance that QQ is ahead.

I'm still not certain enough to go with it though.

Sorry if I've missed this itt but what range are you putting the 4b on here to fold QQ ?

Something pretty decent. JJ+, AK. Possibly add tens or nines and even AQ.

The point is I'm not certain enough of the range so how can I assign it with enough confidence?

Add the fact that there's a 3 bettor who must have something half decent + initial raiser who admittedly has a wide range but could wake up with a monster and smash us.

There's an EP raise from a good player who must know that there are a few reshove stacks knocking about.

Someone's shoved from MP who knows he's being called most of the time.

Guy in the cut off who we have 22 hands on doesn't give a shit about any of this.

I just don't like shoving such a big stack in with so much risk attached.

I think something that no-one seems to have mentioned that this 4-bet is a min-4bet. Min 4-bets from donks are quite often Aces or Kings.

If he jams I'm never folding.

Having said that you can't rule out the other hands that should be in his range just because he min-4bet.

I'll hold off on posting results for a little longer.

Good point, altho i do think ppl give too much credit 2 the min click iso-tho i agree a fish will often only do this with snizzle hands which is worrying of crse.

I'm not 100% on this, so apologies in advance if I'm talking sh1te.. but is correct to say we only have 25% iin this spot, given that 3bettor only has 10bigs? even when he wins the main pot, we still in good shape to win a 60bb side pot from the 4bettor.  I'd be much more inclined to concentrate on the 4bettors range which we do well enough against to get QQ in pretty comfortably?

the 4bettor has the tighter range, so the 3bettor's overlay is pretty crucial here.

yep agree I just wasn't sure it was correct to say we only had 25% when we get it in?!

three handed remember - these aren't necessarily the range I would give these are the ranges suggested earlier in the thread, but Im not suprised QQ isnt in terrific shape here

Umm i have 2 be with tmar here upon reflection.

You have stoved the following 3 ranges right??

Us QQ,

3bettor 66+a8s,j10s,k10o,a10+,

4bettor 99,aqs+

Just thought there is no way we are only 25% against the other 2's range.

And stove has confirmed this.

In fact we are a big fav here.

Stove says:

qq=44.2%

66/a8s+=20.186%

99/aqs+=35.574%

Won't let me c+p for some really annoying reason!!

But it's easily stoved for yrslf.

How did you get these results SuuPRlim? Im assuming it's not a simple preflop stove calculation that i'm using?

Nico

Use Ctrl "c" to copy from stove

oh and [  ] big fav

AQ in the cold 4 range? Come on lets not just try and make ourselves look a bigger fav

Why would we be folding AQ in his spot?

Why cant AQ be in there? Seems reasonable to me

Cheers and yeah i'd say 9% is a big fav lol, jees how much do you want, meh nits.

But ty 4 stove help, here r results from stove in that example.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  63,328,834,800  games   193.488 secs   327,301,097  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    44.240%     43.29%    00.95%       27415971504    600716330.00   { QQ }
Hand 1:    35.574%     34.36%    01.21%       21759641196    769061906.00   { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2:    20.186%     19.40%    00.79%       12285196620    498247244.00   { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }



aqstd and tbh i wldnt rule out odd kq spazz either but weve left that out

I think when looking at those ranges teh min click is really important. 99 and AQ look suspect to a min click

Nico - take AA out of his range just for interest and see how it looks (ie would be flat AA)

This is definitely a problem.

I kinda agree but also we give fish far 2 much credit, they are capable of spazzing with amazing hands, and if the 4bettor showed up with a junk suited ace i'd be shocked but i've seen it b4 many times deep on in comps-maybe not so much in warm up/million type major but that dsnt mean the fish won't fish.

If we do take out the 99 and aqs we are still a fav and can post that in sec if wanted.

Anyway as requested guy. Makes us now....a 'huge' fav! :)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  55,828,068,912  games   170.134 secs   328,141,752  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    48.030%     46.98%    01.05%       26229202740    585234800.00   { QQ }
Hand 1:    30.713%     29.40%    01.32%       16410850332    735561638.00   { KK-99, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2:    21.257%     20.44%    00.82%       11408981316    458238086.00   { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Yeah if we got rid of  99&aqs but kept in aa for 4bettor.

Margy fav-i'm still happy with this spot.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  51,913,195,488  games   155.952 secs   332,879,318  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    41.698%     40.63%    01.07%       21091846356    555026434.00   { QQ }
Hand 1:    39.069%     37.65%    01.42%       19546918632    734822692.00   { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2:    19.233%     18.37%    00.86%        9538057392    446523982.00   { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I think the maths show that this spot is v close and its not bad either way.

Therefore I would default to my in game reads and what a really thought the cold 4 bettor was capable of, and also how nitty the UTG raiser had been



(then fold )

I don't think it does bar when we give 4bettor 10s/ak+, which imo is ridic credit to a fish.

go all in most of the time they cant call

why are we giving the 3bet guy 66?

he is short and all in to a liberal utg raiser

I didn't assign this range but def agree with it. 3bettor is a fish according to OP and also only has ten bigs.

Tbh i'd be getting this in from his spot pretty wide, maybe not as low as 66 but cert not far off.

I mean i'm quite sure we all get 88/ajstd in here right?

I'm thinking folding 77 from him is prob too tight with blinds impending and a cert amount of dead money in pot, plus i'm not certain OR has to have such a snug range that aj/a10std isn't also going inwards.

10 bigs with blinds coming through soon, cert not a deep stack. Am even thinking 55/66 is almost fine-but that cld def be me being over aggro in this spot.

well, anyone can fix a pokerstove to make the results w/e we want lol


Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                70.3192%,70.1471%,0.4652%
"23, 44-77, J5:xx",           14.7230%,14.4442%,0.6786%
"99, TT, 63, Q7:xx"         14.9578%,14.6277%,0.7810%

boom get it in.

LOL

Those ranges are hilarious.

If they're right then yes QQ is winning.

How you can be sure enough to risk 40 bigs I'll never know.

This could be the ultimate "we dont need to know the hands pha thread"

but what happened?

PokerStars Game #65018726537: Tournament #430020016, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (2500/5000) - 2011/07/24 21:29:35 WET [2011/07/24 16:29:35 ET]
Table '430020016 234' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: GO99APE (244519 in chips)
Seat 2: schwadda1976 (387814 in chips)
Seat 3: epitomised (217491 in chips)
Seat 4: Calvin32 (116719 in chips)
Seat 5: ediguadro (88245 in chips)
Seat 6: MrRepsak (325475 in chips)
Seat 7: gresuay (144852 in chips)
Seat 8: m.van damme (56604 in chips)
Seat 9: Finspb812 (213957 in chips)
GO99APE: posts the ante 500
schwadda1976: posts the ante 500
epitomised: posts the ante 500
Calvin32: posts the ante 500
ediguadro: posts the ante 500
MrRepsak: posts the ante 500
gresuay: posts the ante 500
m.van damme: posts the ante 500
Finspb812: posts the ante 500
epitomised: posts small blind 2500
Calvin32: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [Qs Qh]
ediguadro: folds
MrRepsak: raises 5001 to 10001
gresuay: folds
m.van damme: raises 46103 to 56104 and is all-in
Finspb812: folds
GO99APE: raises 46103 to 102207
schwadda1976: folds
epitomised: raises 114784 to 216991 and is all-in
Calvin32: folds
MrRepsak: folds
GO99APE: calls 114784
*** FLOP *** [Kd Qc 9c]
*** TURN *** [Kd Qc 9c] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [Kd Qc 9c 8c] [5h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
epitomised: shows [Qs Qh] (three of a kind, Queens)
GO99APE: shows [Kh Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
GO99APE collected 321774 from side pot
m.van damme: shows [Jh Ah] (high card Ace)
GO99APE collected 187813 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 509587 Main pot 187813. Side pot 321774. | Rake 0
Board [Kd Qc 9c 8c 5h]
Seat 1: GO99APE showed [Kh Kc] and won (509587) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 2: schwadda1976 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: epitomised (small blind) showed [Qs Qh] and lost with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 4: Calvin32 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: ediguadro folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: MrRepsak folded before Flop
Seat 7: gresuay folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: m.van damme showed [Jh Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 9: Finspb812 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

fold he has KK  :P

Lol, thanks :)up

Could have saved us all a lot of time by posting the result from the start. ;)