blonde poker forum

Been working with Pleno on a few bits and we were having a discussion on this hand and i thought would open up to see what others do.
Tournament is a 25euro f/o 2.5gtd
The Bubble has just burst  Avg chips is around 10k
My image is irrelevant as im OTB but im currently lying 3rd in chips and have only been on the table for 2levels
Blinds have just gone to 400/800/100   small and big blind only have 5-7 bigs each
The highjack is the chip leader with circa 35k and were otb with 18500
My obs on c/l so far are that he opens small to 1350 at 3/6/75 and 1750 at this level and he has been fairly active on and around the bubble winning most pots pre flop and has not showndown any weak holdings.
I have sharkscoped him on joining the table and over a sample of 3700 games at these low stakes mtts he is a $55000 winner

Action is it folds to him in the H/J and he open shoves????

Im comfortable with my shoving range late on in these comps but what i would like to know is what peeps calling ranges are in this spot?

TIA

Obviously a good player
Obviously knows how to open normally
Assuming you haven't seen him do this before?
He obviously has a hand he wants to get the blinds involved with but wants you out the way therefore

QQ+ AQ+ for me

Thats why they call me nitty mcmuggleskin.

stack sizes of cut off/button/sb/bb are essential ehre as he wouldnt shove 66 into a 40big stack behind for example, but if 3 small and 1 medium stack he could shove pairs/ax/some broadways to take away fold eqity and pick up chips.

i doubt im folding 99/AQ.

It depends for me on the payout structure a bit.  Is it a Stars type comp with hundreds of runner where the bubbke bursting means there won't be another significant money jump for ages?  If there are no significant payn jumps for a while then I call with plenos range ie. 99+ AQ+ and maybe even slightly wider but if there are significant pay jumps coming I would tighten that up to JJ+ and it might even be correct to fold jacks there.

You are folding jacks but calling with aq?

We are miles ahead of his shoving range here with tens imo.

I'm calling pretty happily with 88/ajstd+ against this player. He sounds very competent and i'd expect him to be shoving pairs from 22-77, kq, qjstd and a7+.

I'd assume he'd raise stack off with 88,a10+ for value so kind of take out the top hands out of his range, unless he's balancing his jamming range by doing this with premiums too, but i doubt it.

pretty much exactly what i told rich via pm.

TT is close for me as is AT, but like the rest

[/quote]

You are folding jacks but calling with aq?

We are miles ahead of his shoving range here with tens imo.

I'm calling pretty happily with 88/ajstd+ against this player. He sounds very competent and i'd expect him to be shoving pairs from 22-77, kq, qjstd and a7+.

I'd assume he'd raise stack off with 88,a10+ for value so kind of take out the top hands out of his range, unless he's balancing his jamming range by doing this with premiums too, but i doubt it.
[/quote]

pretty much exactly what i told rich via pm.[/quote]
Obv thats why your BITB

No No this is a euro site 100 runner tourney
cant remember exactly but min cash is 48euro 8th is like 90euro and 1st is 756

Wow just stoved this and if we did give him a range here of 22-77, qjs,kjs, kq, a7-a9  and a5s-a9s, we are a 2-1 fav with 88 and a 63% fav with 77.

Even 55 is 54% against this range. I guess i might be giving him too wide a range so i've tweaked it a bit and included all the premiums just for balance.

If he jams all pairs, a5s, qjs, a7+ then we are 55% with 8's and 54% with ajs, both of which i'm happy with.

Just to clarify the above questioning of folding jj and calling with aq. These are the respective stoves v the last range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   2,167,776,864  games     4.826 secs   449,187,083  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    34.863%     34.38%    00.48%         745304580     10442442.00   { 22+, A5s+, KJs+, QJs, A7o+, KJo+ }
Hand 1:    65.137%     64.66%    00.48%        1401587400     10442442.00   { JJ }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   5,205,404,160  games    12.179 secs   427,408,174  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    43.715%     40.20%    03.52%        2092410716    183115670.00   { 22+, A5s+, KJs+, QJs, A7o+, KJo+ }
Hand 1:    56.285%     52.77%    03.52%        2746762104    183115670.00   { AQs, AQo }

Hey Nico

I obviously have some flawed thinking here as I didn't believe he would be shoving such a wide range of hands with a medium stack in between him and the two short stacks.

Hi mate, didn't mean to have a go or anything.

I guess i'm just saying JJ has far more equity here than aq. Even if we tighten up his range.

I mean JJ has more equity than aq period really.

I was thinking this as it was against his m/o for 30mins so if he was winning lots of pots small balling is this not always a premium shove? (although personally i think its pretty tez)

99 and AQ are borderline for me, obv calling better

JJ+/AQs/AK

i just cant see myself folding 1010/aq here as i never think he has jj/ak+ i think its always 99/aq----- at the very best.

AQo+, 88+ imo maybe wider. He should almost never have qq+ here and probably r/c other premium hands in his range.

he'll be doing this joke wide imo.

Yeah defo 88+ and AQ+, maybe AJs and 77 too

OP hurt my eyes.

What's ev diff between 77 and 22 against a resonable range here?