blonde poker forum

I did kind of want the first hand I posted to be from a HSMTT, but this spot is kinda tough and since Mitch posts on here I thought it'd be interesting to see what you guys think.

Reads:

So far in the game Mitch has been kinda quiet, playing a pretty solid TAG style and mumbling some disgruntled comments about how bad his seat is (I'm on his direct left) because I was messing with him a little bit by 3betting him in pos and raising/floating his cbets. He'd been playing pretty well from what I'd seen and hadn't got out of line yet.

OK, Mitch is playing about 2k I think and I'm sat about 1300 deep and we're playing 2/5 with an occasional straddle to 10 on the btn. This pot wasn't straddled.

He opens to 15 in the c/o and I peel the btn with Jc Ts. One peeler cold and we see a 7c 8d 9s flop.

He bets 35, I call the peeler folds. I just call here because I'd been floating a lot of flops and it fitted into how I'd been playing much more than raising, and I thought he'd get his barrel on on quite a lot of turn cards.

Turn is a gross 9d. He checks reasonably quickly, I bet 30 (I like to do this sometimes against good thinking players so I can overbet the river and fuck with their head a bit and for balance, it means I can do this as a really cheap bluff later on). He calls.

River is the 8c. He checks, I bet 100 he thinks for about 30 secs and makes it 225.

Can he really ever be bluffing here? Or more appropriately, is he bluffing enough in a spot where he can easily bluff catch a lot of hands. I thought that he could be trying to buy me out of a chop with A high, or had 67/T7 and is now bluffing. I guess it's hard for me to call unless I've got an 8 or a 9, but it really didn't look like he expected me to fold that much, since he's repping pretty thin. I'm pretty sure he always barrels the turn with a 9 or a turned boat (but might be wrong). And because of my turn sizing I'm aware that I've opened up his turn calling range massively so he could have called with a pair of uno cards on the turn and now just be getting FPS, but I honestly don't think he steps out of line that much on this board texture surely.

It just really felt like 78/8x to me.

Does anybody think he's bluffing enough to call? I don't want comments about my turn bet because that was just a stylistic thing really.

Well if you trust your instincts then shove?

Really interesting hand. I understand your reasons for flatting flop and agree that game-flow is super important when deciding what to do here, but I think because of stack szies, I would raise. If we are going to flat, then I dislike your turn bet, I do the exact same play qutie alot.. looking like we are going for free showdown on the river then overbet and they are like btufnjbb bn jktb wte i call.

I still think, flop 85, turn 275, river jam would be nice, i'd also blink a few times under your glasses as he will obv think he has a live tell and you're polarised. I also don't think he's folding the flop very often unless he has complete air.

What was your plan on K/Q/A/10/J rivers?

Live cash is so different to online, when you bet £30 he really is calling alottttttttt,  flush draws/straight draws 76/710 and Mitch being Mitch he could def do something spewy/creative here. When you bet 30 ott I realllllllly expect that he thinks you're going to check back the river alot, also although its a really bad card to bluff, he's probably going to sigh call A high, never folding full house/straight vs you w/dynamics. I think because he is expecting you to check back the river alot with weak-decent showdown he will donk the river with a full house alot of the time. Thoughts?

If we think he never has a 9 and he can sometimes be bluffing then surely   call >>>>>>>>> shoving.

Although we probably do have a 9 in our range, he never expects us to have 9x in our range when we bet 1/5 pot or wte on the turn, so he wlll,probably jsut flcik it in with 8x as our line makes no sense innit.

No he said he thinks he is value craising 8x

Getting caught bluffing here is probably +ev for us anyway!



I prob fold river readless but he posted reads in op

yeh but he is value c/raising 8x because he thinks we NEVEER have 9x, so doubt he would fold if we decide to go for the ole 3b.

People don't think like this even if they pretend to- people aren't c raise snapping 8x for 1100 on the river

And if they are, never leave

He can definitly be bluffing with the dynamics between you. My gut would be to fold. When you bet on the river what were you hoping to be called by? Given the board I would have preferred a check back on the river.

but jamie woldnt shove 9x her,e he would probably make ti smaller, because nothing worse calls when u make it so big (in theory ofc) and needs to be balanced if he is evr  (bluffing)

Is this hand played with THE Mitch “Mitch” Johnson?

He should always shove 9x if is this thread is correct?

I always shove 9x here because no one folds to me ever- which is why I fold river cos they always expect me to call etc

IMO he has 8x and isn't folding.

If he is never folding 8x then we should never shove anything other than 9x- but there is no comments in op about villains " ability" to r-c 8x

Were you betting £100 for value or as a bluff?

If for value then you must have been sure he doesn't have a 9 and a thinking player has to fold unless he has a very good read on you.

If you're betting the river as a bluff then his raise suggests that he is pretty sure you don't have a 9 so now it's a matter of call/fold.

In the moment (at lower stakes but it's all proportionate) I'd be thinking about how oppo looks, how he reacted to my call on the flop and his reaction to my turn bet. We have a bluff-catcher and a half with the straight but not much more.
£125 to win £427 - is he bluffing this board often enough for that be decent value?



disclaimer - I'm not truly qualified to debate hands at this level but have posted in the hope that I may learn something when people explain why my thinking is wrong

I would imagine this is 100% a value bet. 8x/9x/77 are the only hands we loose to, I cant see any way any of those hands fold and we beat everything else

But my thinking was along the lines of how often do we get called by worse on this board?

wtf this post tilts me.

have you never bet for value with the intention of folding toresistance before

sorry if this sounds rude, im not a rude boi, nice guy really

very often, i think we are repping 8x and nothing else when we bet this rive after betting £30 on the turn.

I simply cant comprehend peoples thought processes who think we could ever possibly be bluffing the river

My thoughts exactly.

Really interesting hand!

Trivial fold imo. ;)

I'm going to write a few of my level 1 thoughts, please feel free to flame me if you feel my thought process is retarded.

Ok. To me turn bet wreaks of one of two things, extreme strength, or, well, come to think of it, nothing else really, just an attempt at looking weak. If you were weak you'd think you'd just check behind here. I know you say you'll balance it out with air, but it's almost ALWAYS this way round, ie you don't bluff first.
 
I'm guessing you guys are friends so he knows your never value betting 1/4pot nor betting this amount as a semibluff. Also by just calling otf your repping a made hand as you'd probably raise the flop with a strong draw. (although this snippet obv has less merit to previously stated dynamics.)

Just to go off on a slight tangent a second, but value betting 1/4pot to set up subsequent 1/4pot bluffs to pick up folds is, to my level 1 thinking, a pretty laughable theory. Unless of course you have massive history, and expect to play huge volume vs this villain? It could work against regs in mtt when you have relatively shallow stacks I guess, but not at deep cash games. What's the point in putting effort into getting the least amount of value from the nuts, to then bloat the pot with air as your giving your villain great odds to float/call with a marginal hand?

Anyway, back to the hand. I honestly think Mitch 'I always get there' Johnson has 9x here.

As its highly improbable for you to also have 9x, he has to have you on 56/TJ or a fh from reasons stated in regard to your turn bet. He's not raising you here as he knows he's pretty confident that he's behind, but will certainly call hoping to pair up as you've given him the odds to do so.

Once the river hits he checks knowing that you have to value bet 56/TJ/88/77, then gives you the right odds to be able to call his raise even on such a scary board. Also gives you enough room to spazz all-in.

As played this is way to scary a board to value bet imo, so I check behind with showdown value. Unlucky on how the board ran out.

My level 1 thoughts anyway! Ta

I mean I know we miss out on loads of value by not betting the river, but I just put that down to how unluckily the board runs out.

Saying all this, Mitch could of course be thin value raising his 47o. ;)

Not raising the flop is insane, especially this deep. You seem to be worrying about balancing for balancing sake, i doubt his whole range c/bets that board + alot of if probably isn't folding to 1 single raise. As played river is quite close between checking behind and bet/folding, theres very few hands he can be turning into a bluff here.

why whollyflush? we bet tinnnny on turn, he will call witha ll flush draws that cbet, 10x, im pretty sure mtich opens 104s etc here. he can have 7x and turned it into a bluff?

Its mitch ffs he probably had us dead on the flop.

tbh this whole hand looks ridic FPS-y imo mate.

Pre is standard obv

I don't agree with your reasons for not raising the flop. Raising is by far and away the best play imo. When you raise here you rep a pretty thin value range that is heavily weighted towards semibluffs - Mitch isn't going to be folding much. His cbet range on this flop is actually stronger than usual too because he must expect this flop to hit your preflop flatting range reasonably hard. I also disagree that he's barreling many turns with his air hands. There just aren't all that many hands that you're flatting this flop with and folding turns.

I really don't like your turn sizing either. It would be great if you didn't think that he would just flat his non-boat 9x hands to a 2/3rds pot sizing but I don't think that he is. Your range still contains a lot of gutshot+overcards, SD+pair, gutter+pair hands so Mitch isn't going to be very inclined to fold an 8 imo and he'll still raise his 9x. The small bet also just looks really like a weak-ish showdown hand because you wouldn't float and bluff with this sizing on this board, or at least I don't think that Mitch will think that you will and hero AQ which he wouldn't do to a bet of £80.

You could make an argument for the £30 inducing some bluffs but for the same reason that I don't think he's inclined to barrel, I don't think he'll raise as a bluff either.

Looking at it in more detail I think the river is closer to a call than I originally though because every weak showdown hand that I think he's putting you on the turn that isn't 8x is now folding river but I think he has a ton of 8x when he check/calls turn and in his mind you can still have some 9x and were trying to induce on the turn so actually I like a raise.  I think you're gunna get him off 8x with a jam almost all of the time and Mitch's sizing is very indicative of 8x.

havn't read all posts as cba to sit out of all my tables but hands involving MTF are always my fav to read so could stop myself from browsing the OP.


My first thought is Mitch has never made it to showdown without a full house. Read #1

read #2. Mitch doesn't like to fold much so calling the flop is super bad. especially since there is one more person in the pot and your hand has very fragile nutty value.


TBH i dont hate the turn thinking but your river sizing now sux. Why are you repping the exact hand strength you have with this bet? It screams 'im going for super thin value'.  Just super merge and use a more polarising bet size  - probably more likely to be called and makes folding to raise much easier. Its not like you ever need to be mega balanced here so you can bluff for cheaper in the future as you will probably never be in the same sort or spot again vs him.


No idea what to do now as its hard to imagine Mitch not having any showdown value here and and simply bluff catching. Having said that we are getting a ridic price and Mitch is the one person I can think of who is most likely to get out of line in these strange spots (see a hand posted by Alex a while back involving Florian).

Yeh I have to agree with Dan and GED. I appreciate your reasons behind the fancy plays, but just don't think theres enough merit to them in favour of raising the flop and bombing turn.

Just off out, will respond when i get chance.

Quite a lot of leveling going off for most of the night with Me, Jamie n Dave sat in a line in a short handed nitfest.

Mbn to be jamie and dave

I think dan's post is spot on. Pretty much always raising this flop vs mitch because he won't fold j3o and we can complain when he jams a brick turn and rivers a chop.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you rarely play live cash do you jamie? I was just wondering why there's so much emphasis on balance when you're not likely to play mitch more than a coupla times a year or am I way off and you now grind teh live cash too?

dan morgan and whollyflush's posts i agree with 100%. Not raising flop when you have a history of raising his cbets is mad, when we want to get in nearly 150 bigs.

MITCH IS A FKIN MONG JUST RAISE THE FLOP

This

Wordsmith imo

I think I love Mitch

I was OOOP and just sat there like a nit letting mitch bash me up

I think Ged really hit the proverbial nail on its head...

I have played against Mitch quite a bit, often paying for the priviledge! I think he has an 8x hand here mostly and whilst he above any other player playing £1/2 or £2/£5 at DTD is capable of being creative in this sort of spot, I don't think it would be often enough to make a call profitable, even with the price offered. I would fold, but then I fold a lot  :)

I would have to caveat this opinion with not fully being able to appreciate the table dynamic at the time as well.

Ok, suppose i can offer what i was thikning during the hand, although im pretty sure its just a clear attempt from jamie to get me to tell him my hand lol.

History with Jamie in previous sessions is pretty minimal, think we have played together once before, but in this session hes been 3 betting me a decent amount, usually quite big when ive been isolating the limpers. Each time ive just passed, but never had better than QTo.

He's deffinatley been bemoaning his luck abit and is down in the game, considering quitting etc.

Pre is pretty standard, we open with  Qc 9c and jamie calls in position.

Flop is good for my hand with it coming  7c 8d 9s and we c-bet.

When im flatted on the flop im pretty sure im good, expecting him to have some sort of pair and s-draw combo.

The 9 pairing on the turn, im expecting you to rep a large amount of the time when i check to you, and i know i can look full of shit if i c/r, but when you bet so small it just felt like you were really trying to induce coz id kind of gave up. If you bet bigger im almost deffo raising.

Decided that i could make some random raise on the river repping not a lot if i just check called now. Also, if my read is wrong and u have air i get another bet out of you, plus your gonna find it pretty hard not to v-bet any pairs if it bricks off etc.

So river pairs the 8, and i just dont see any value in betting as your 100% betting a 8 anyway, plus all your busted draws, counterfeted hands etc.

River is kind of interesting....What a lot of people were saying about the raise size, i dont think comes into effect too much. If i was c/r as a bluff, im trying to get you to fold anything but a house, which your gonna prob do for £100 more or £300 more. TBH i didnt consider a straight to be a very big part of your range til you started tanking the river,

The second reason i went small was because i was so sure you wouldnt expect me to have a 9, you may try and re-stab with your air, or even try and get me off a chop, as im aware you prob think i cant have better than a 8.

Think this hand would have been more interesting if it had been in a straddled pot as the stack:pot ratio would have been tighter, pot much bigger and may have induced you to turn your hand into a bluff on the river more often.

Yeah I completely agree with Dan and Alex's posts. I completely lost my brain and got so caught up with trying to play my hand strangely that I lost sight of what the most profitable play is (I do this occasionally vs friends).

(Playing MTTs hence the short reply.)

Thanks for all your responses, especially yours Mitch, appreciate you talking through the hand and revealing your hole cards.

The more I think about this hand, the more I come to the conclusion that I totally butchered it, will just have to learn from it. Thanks for the responses again everyone.

Did Mitch utter "send me a seven!" on the turn?.

Million that Mitch actually had a nine :P

Thought your analysis of the hand was quality Dan. I finished my last message on here with AIR... but deleted it.
Mitch is gonna Mitch imo.   ;tk;

not only hilarious, but also solid advice.

hi mitch

Fold flop faceup, it's great for balance and deception. A played I'd bet £12.75 on the turn and just jam the river.

a nice line i think for deception is to get two £25 chips, snap them both in half and then bet £37.50.

there is no way Mitch would be expecting that

PMSL, nut line itt.

Surely we only have to snap one of them in half though ?

just snapping one?

not very deceptive mate?