blonde poker forum

Yo!

not really soliciting advice as such as but thought as there has been some PLO talk drumming up in the last week or so on here I'd put a few things out for discussion that I've been working on this week :)

This SPOT here.

Hand Information
 No Limit Omaha, 1 BB (6 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat:  1 klakenurpo ($103.38)
Seat:  3 xxjackpotxxx ($630.16)
Seat:  5 lizbear ($121.73) Dealer
Seat:  6 Hero ($102.4) Small Blind
Seat:  8 blublugrzh ($0) Big Blind
Seat:  10 frozen30 ($114.06)
Dealt to Hero
(http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/2C.png) (http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/2C.png) (http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/2C.png) (http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/2C.png) 

Preflop  (Pot:1.5)
xxjackpotxxx    POST    $1.5
klakenurpo    RAISE    $5
xxjackpotxxx    FOLD   
lizbear    RAISE    $18
Hero    ?????



Now you'll notice we have an unusual hand, ofc we didn't really get dealt  2c 2c 2c 2c (the hole hand is pretty much fake, but that's not relevant lol)

UTG is a known fish, playing 68/38 with no positional discrepancy with his opening range. He folds to 3bets rarely.
The 3better "Lizbear" is a weak regular who has an 11% 3bet, (18% 3bet vs steal) and a 26% fold to 3bet.

We are the Hero, and find ourselves with the following hands.

1)  Qc Jc Th 8c
2)  Ad Kd 9h 7h
3)  7h 8h 7d 8s

What would you're play be in these spots and why?

(please steer away from 1) do X, 2) do y, 3) do x, lets try and get some discusssssssssions going)

id just fold all 3 probably as I think Lizbear rarely folds to a jam (or w/e pot is) unless he has very bad AK/AQxx or maybe bad QQxx as he will assume u have aces and there is decent dead money in there. So i doubt we have much fold equity and also there are times when we're crushed (like if we 3b the AK and run into AA/KK)

also utg is fishy and doesn't differentiate position etc so how much fold equity will there even be there. some of those type just close eyes and go with whatever their holding. If he calls then there is even almost no chance Liz folds a non ace high hand. If we get it in with any of these hands  vs. 2 people then we are pretty much blocked, crushed and dominated a lot.


if i had to i'd shove 1), 3), 2) in that order.

id rather shove AA/KK (obv) ; better runs and possibly stuff like A567ds


is heros s/n outed? (table with jackpot and lizbear = wiiiiii)

you'd fold AK97dbl but would be tempted to jam A567dbl? 

I wasn't playing in this hand, but I know jackpot well, he's an interesting character :P

Do you know Jackpot personally Dave?

I'm fine with calling hands 1 and 3 but folding 2.

i dont him IRL. but have tons and tons of history with him.

I actually like the way he plays, got some pretty terrible leaks mind.

Interested in everyone's thoughts on hand 2

Hand 2 plays badly against his range imo. I can't see an argument FOR calling.  We're gonna lose loads with hand 2

the nut hand of the 3 to go all in with no?

No I don't agree. I think if we shove we're putting too much emphasis on having an Ace and King in our hand (meaning he's less likely to have AA or KK). I wouldn't be inclined to shove any of those hands in that spot.

Are we really deep enough to be calling with any of them?

Hand 3 obviously has some decent set flopping potential but the others you're calling purely hoping to hit a draw.

Obviously depends entirely on Lizbear's range. If we can narrow the 3 bet down to meaning AAxx or KKxx then I like either hand 1 or 3.

Hand 2 plays pretty terribly against anything he may have. What would you like him to have if this were our hand?

i dont like calling 1) since we will just flop dominated draws oop and also the likely action on an AT8 or K82cc flop is going to be check, check, bet which leaves us with a decision with osmeone to act behind.

of any of them calling the 7788 seems best but still im still not doing it unless lizbear is like never ever 4betting which seems unlikely

1]call
2]fold
3]call

keep us in suspense Suup. I'm intrigued where this is going

OK I will give it a go.
 
Hand 1 - I find myself wanting to call. I am not sure how good of an idea it is to put in one fifth of my stack with this hand though. I am really hoping to flop a straight and I am not going to do this often enough (or flop a stong enough draw) to want to get it in on the flop. If I am deeper I definately want to call and play the flop but I feel I am putting too much of my stack in to make the call here. Even if I do make my straight then there is no guantee that he is stacking off to me. So we should fold right?
 
Hand 2 - I am going to fold, it looks like two hold 'em hands to me not a good PLO hand? If I am continuing I would rather shove/4-Bet but feel that I am likely to get called and be dominated. I probably fold rather than 4-bet.
 
Hand 3 - Call. I believe I am about 4/1 to make a set with this hand and I have some st8 draw possiblities as well. I think I think I would prefer the call but that might be because I play micro stake PLO and very rarely do people fold to 4-bets in this situation.

I think hands 1 and 3 play pretty well on the flop (even though I was folding hand 1) and if you end up getting it in on the flop you are likely to do so with good equity as if you bet out on the right flop you might well get raised by and overpair and be able to get your money in pretty good or even win it right there with a bet on a decent flop.

If we did flop good with either of these hands (say a pair and a straight draw or even a set) what should we do, just make a bet there and then or do a CRAI and commit him to the hand? I think I prefer the bet unless we flop the stone cold nuts (ie quads or something) because if we try to CRAI we might end up giving him a free card?

nice post. And i think u hit the nail on the head wrt leading any flop you hit well enough to stack off on

over the last week I've been doing a ton of work on cold 4bet ranges (yes I SHOULD get a girlfriend lol) so I thought Id post on here in parallel interesting set of responses so far. Will post again soon keep em coming guys!

PLLOOOOOOOO

Not necessarily. In some situations its pretty profitable to invest a high % of your stack to effectively "fit or fold" the flop, you'll know before you call that on the flop ur gonna need X% equity to get the rest in - so if you are going to flop X% enough of the time to make calling preflop profitable then its a fine play - speshly if you have money invested already - this is quite complex to calculate but luckily i've been practicing.

The main drawback is that we're open to making large equity mistakes. over the long run if our av flop equity when we go all in is too low or too high then we're stacking off to light or too wide and burning several big blinds in the process (if that makes sense) this tight mathematical stuff can only work on the assumption we play near perfectly OTF which given the amount of variables is often hard to guarantee. A good way to overcome that is obv to 4bet call over peeling - this firstly lets us realise our equity fully as we're pretty likely to be all in given the circumstances and also it allows our villain to take the same peel to "fit or fold" line and ultimately could end up making mistakes.

The purpose of my work this week has basically been to look at what hands are best to4bet/call over peeling - the fold to 3/4bet stat plays a big part here because we can manipulate ranges with certain hands where people fold out dominating parts of their range and end up continuing with parts that play better vs our specific holding.


One thing to really consider about these kind of hands is how valuable "high card value" is spots like this.


The best way to proceed in 3bet pots where we are prepared to stack off as a general rule is to really think about how we exploit the weaker parts of our villains range, he will be getting the top of his range in anyway and nothing we do changes that, so lets think about how we want him to behave with the weaker hands he has and try exploit that behaviour - maybe we have a flush draw/gutshot but no pairs and want him to fold a 1pair hand - so we pot, or maybe we have AA** on  9c 5h 2c and want him to try stack off more money with KK/QQ so bet super small, etc.

Is it.
Is there a link or something where I can learn how to calculate this as I don't understand how I do this atm.

Anyway

So with these hands is it potentially better to 4-Bet that call a 3-bet and play the flop sometimes I assume thats where you are going with this. Very interested now.

Rod - sorry I let this lie for so long.

The calculation is really complex, basically you calculate what equity you need to stack off postflop.

Lets say the pot is going to be 200 and we have 400 back in stacks the calc is 400/1000 = 0.40/40% so we're going to need 40% equity assuming we have 0 fold equity.

We then look at our flop equity which tells us with what FREQUENCY we will flop 40% equity (25% of the time, 60% of the time etc)

We then calculate what our average flop equity is, lets say in the exmaple above...

Preflop we have to call 50 into 150 (50/150) we need 33% equity to call preflop which we will feasibly have most of the time. We have 400 back in stacks so we are going to 40% equity to stack of post flop (400/1000) and we use the flop equity graphs to see that we are going to have 40% equity 45% of the time.

So 55% of the time we call 50 and fold OTF which is going to be a -$50 play.
55% of the time we call $50, then invest another $400. So we need to work out our average equity on the flop - lets say for example it's 40%,

so this 45% of the time when we have enough equity to stack off we invest $450 total from the point of call preflop and have average 40% equity in a $1000 pot = $400.

SO we'd be getting the right price to peel preflop, but we lose $50 on the peel 55% of the time we have to c/f the flop, and we lose $50 when we flop enough equity and get the money in.

I know this is a really crude example, but its a good to show how what looks like easy peels preflop and then when we stove them immeadiatley it looks profitable but post flop play ability makes them pretty big losing plays.

I know what you're gonna ask me, how do we work out Flop Equity and Average Flop Equity - well I use a program called Odds Oracle which I'd heftily recommend to anyone + its works this stuff out pretty easily for you.

what things had you been working out? i'm guessing that since the example above demonstrates calling a hand oop to 3bet as a losing play then that is also the thought process behind the initial example. so you like jamming them?

not specifically, what I'm doing is working on building more accurate 3/4 betting ranges for certain spots. lets take the OP example as an example...

hand 2)  Ad Kd 9h 7h  -  main advantage is that this hand plays great vs his 3bets, big disadvantage is it plays very poorly vs his 5bets, so if we wanted to continue with this hand we could consider calling, because we are in good shape vs his 3bet range, but then we continue with pretty poor visibility post flop. 4betting is great because he peels a pretty dominated range quite often but we're going to have a reasonable equity disadvantage when he 5bets. To solve how we play this hand profitable we'd have to look at the weight in his range between his 5betting range and his 3bet calling/folding range. Maybe a good spot to 4bet/fold?

Hand 1)   Qc Jc Th 8c - the most attractive had of the 3 to 3bet imo, plays well vs his 5bets and we could make him make post flop mistakes, i.e we cbet a A75 board and he folds KQ85 etc. he might fold some KK**'s/AK**s from his 3bet range which wins us a lot of equity. peeling lees appealing because again poor visibility vs a wide range and he does have a fair few hands in his 3bet range that dominate us,

Hand 3) would be an OK hand to 4bet for the same reasons similar to above he might make bad folds postflop and we have gtd 33% equity vs literally any hand that isnt AA78 lol but peeling is the most attractive option for me given how our flop equity is likely to be quite polarised (as in either very strong/quite weak) it's very hard for us to make bad folds/calls postflop and we're getting a great price to let the original opener in the pot as well.

all this in theory can only be applied in relation the 3bettors range though, so what I'm currently on with is running these kind of equities vs several diff 3betting ranges, you can't put 11% into stove and assume that's going to cover an 11% 3bet range because it's often going to be SO inaccurate here - different types of players will hold more weight to different types of hands to 3/4bet

When we start 4betting hands we have to be aware of how our percieved range alters as this affects our fold equity. I.e Lizbear sees us 4betting hand 1 then he wont be folding KKT9sng/AQQ3dbl next time and we should adjust our 4bets accordingly - more KK** combo's and less AK** combo's etc.

yup that's where I'm going!!!!

Dave,

As the big G man says, you have a lot of heart and commitment to the game. Wp.

However, when I read posts like yours itt and plenos massive post the other day on his blog, my heart sinks a little. I think, I'll never be that dedicated to put all those hours in off-table. I put work into my game, lots of pha's, getting more into working with stove etc and getting better at the Maths behind it all, and I approach the game in the right way I think. But some of the stuff you guys work on is on a massively higher level. Did you always put this much work into your game? As in, maybe ill get into it at some point down the line? Basically, I don't think I'll ever be good enough to beat the high stakes online games where the real money is.

Everyone just seems to be too good out there and when I think of the donks that play live, it's just so easy. Theres plenty of money to be made live and I don't think the standard is getting any better (like it is online), but it seems the potential isn't that great.

Outside of London there isn't any regular games higher than 2/5 anywhere in the country. In fact, Leeds is the only place I can think of that runs 2/5 regularly. At DTD even the 1/2 games seems to be drying up and more reg-filled than ever.

My point is, where is the future?

PLO 1/2 +

mmmm well i think the way it progressed for me was that I got to a certain level, then something would happen - either I'd lose for or abit, or i'd meet someone new who opened my eyes to a different concept etc, Rob and Will moving in opposite me in leeds was a great little bink for me as it was those two (will more so I think) who really got me into exploring the maths behind stuff and how to apply it, then as I got better still I started to uncover different concepts and after playing for hours and hours and hours things would come into my head and I'd explore them. I don't think it's out of some ridiculous work ethic I think it's just me being geeky and a bit compulsive about it all.


One thing is for sure though and that is that playing online makes you a miles better player and yes I agree there is a ton of dead money live but I dont want to sit in a live game and make £x/p hour for the next 20 years I want to get good enough to beat the biggest games, which I dont actually believe to be much tougher than a lot of low stakes games, but just like any career, you have to climb the ladder. I think you're making a huge mistake not playing online.
[/quote]


shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh dont tell anyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


future IMO is that as the general stnd of poker increases the people who are going to fall by the wayside first are the worst regs. Fish will still be there cos they can afford to, best regs will still be there cos they beat the games and the breakeven/small winning regs will fall off the tree - so we all have to work not to be those guys.

Well I understand the theory behind the example, or I understand how the maths works at least, but I am going to have to have a look at Odds Oracle to understand it fully.

Thanks for this though, really hard to learn to think on this sort of level I think. Doubt I am ever going to get it entirely but interesting trying. I will go and investigate Odds Oracle.

yh its an amazing piece of software. add me on skype (same name as on here) and i'll run you through how to use it quickly if you like. I'm not an expert but I have the guy who wrote it on skype and pester him all the time so slowly getting there :)

Awesome, thanks.

I'll do that, I'm at DTD at the moment for APAT but will do when I get back if that's OK

Have spent a bit of time using odds oracle this week and trying to understand the calculation. You are right it is a great piece of software. Definitely an eye opener as to what you should and should not be calling with preflop.

Not relevant ttt at all but what stats would you expect a .25/.50 plo 6 maxer to be running Dave ? (winning ldo)

as a general rule the lower the stakes the tighter preflop stats you should have, I'd say good stats to solidly beat 50plo would be something like 18-24/16-20 with like a 5-7% 3bet, 20/18/6 seems pretty decent.

The reason I think tighter preflop play is essential at the lower stakes is because people's understanding of ranges/relevant hand values is minimal to non existent, so a really easy and simple way to exploit this to have stronger hands all the time - PLO vs weak players is all about BIG CARDs.

as you move up stakes you have to be loser/more aggressive because you run into better players and more aggressive action (even the weak players understanding of equities tends to be higher) so you can get seriously run over playing too tight + because people on the whole play loser you can open your ranges up more profitably in certain spots, looking to exploit over/under adjustments.

Tks Dave,  Can't be certain what i am without hem but its closer to 40vpip  ;flushy;  (ridic small 800 sample)

Any weight to the ptr grader lilD ?



(http://i454.photobucket.com/albums/qq267/ppokerfan/ptrgrader.jpg)

 

lol that pic is pretty com

Must be doing something right post at least  :D

40 vpip too high for 50plo IMO get it to somewhere like 22% - I'd imagine you're main leaks are coming from the blinds with this kind of vpip, a good thing I get some of my horses to do is to write down every hand they open UTG and defend from the SB/BB therefore no excuse for tardy peels/opens.

PTR grader is wrong dont be less agressive pre flop, just play less hands therefore you'll have stronger ranges and be playing more aggressive with better hands, not sure what to make of river aggression, dont be bluffing too much at this stake people have an uncanny desire to call a lot of the time.

The money at these stakes comes from GOOD value bets and picking the spazzy bluffs off. nothing else fancy required.

Ty.

showdown frequency is good tho! wpwp

 :)up

I'd imagine you're main leaks are coming from the blinds
The money at these stakes comes from GOOD value bets and picking the spazzy bluffs off. nothing else fancy required

+1