blonde poker forum

1/2 live cash again. Same game as other post.

I raise to 12 with Ks Tc from the cutoff. The button calls, blinds fold.

Flop (£27) Qs 4d 5d

I cbet £16. Villain calls

Turn (£59) 9h

I bet £36. Villain calls

River (£131) 5s

I check. Villian bets £80

I thought about folding, calling, and raising (had about 250ish back effective). What would you do and why?

Reads: Villain was young, seemed fairly compentant, aggresive and played in position. Seemed fairly spewy though. Thought otf he could be floating/calling with all Ace highs, small/med pairs, 4x, 5x Qx and all draws. So turn becomes a must-bet imo.

When he calls the turn I'm narrowing it down a bit, though it's possible he's just being stubborn with medium pairs or possibly worse.

On the river I thought he'd check back all his showdown value hands like Ace high, and pairs below a Q. And thought he was reasonably likely to bluff with all his missed draws. His value range seemed fairly limited to Qx and 5x.

He threw his chips in fairly carelessly and quickly on all three streets, without much thought it seemed.

Think calling here is pretty bad.  Sure he might be betting his missed draws or assuming you have missed your draw and have given up but I would want to have more of a view on a villain than "seemed fairly competent" to make a call here.  Raising or folding both seem okay but think I like raising here although a c/r line doesn't make a great deal of sense to a thinking player I think you will get it through against an average-ish player enough  Would think he would probably need 5x or full houses to definitely call/raise and it seems unlikely he calls pre and then two barrels with a bare 5.  Problem is that you probably don't barrel all two streets and then c/r with a full house or bare 5 either but to an average-ish player it will look strong enough for them to fold non nut type hands and of course a massive amount of the time he has air that you may be behind to.

Of course check raising makes sense, 2 big draws have missed, gonna give villain a chance to bluff these a lot of the time on this board.

calling the river really depends on how we think he plays his big draws OTF. if he has  Ad Xd would he raise the flop more often than not? if he has  Ad 2d or  Ad 3d I think he almost defo raises,  Ad Qd also raises but if he is flatting the flop most of the time with NFD's then calling the river bet becomes awful imo.

If we think he raises most of the time then calling might be slightly better but I think a fold is much much better here. I think your range to fire two and chk is going to madeup primarily of bluff catch hands like 9x's/77 etc and a competent villain prolly knows this and should make him less likely to bluff and because of this your range to c/r legitimately is now pretty thin I could see you getting hero'd pretty dam wide - if i was gonna raise Id make it £200 or some similarly small amount

Does he really bluff ace high on the river though? I'd expect him to raise all nfds otf.

all in and a speech.

if you expect him to raise NFD's 100% then calling becomes much more attractive because we lose to less bluffs.

I mean I know nothing about the villain but chking Ace high for "showdown value" isnt that great imo so if he's good he wont do it all the time.

like the jam

shouldve jammed.

i called and he said "pair you win" sighhhh. he showed ace high. no flush draw just some wheel gutshot draw. fml lesson learnt. cheers guys :)