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i've lumped on cska to beat inter tonight. Inter missing most of their best players, started terrible in serie A, cska going well in rusky land. 6/4 looks value, i'd rate them 10/11 at worst.

gl me.

Inter have a new coach in Ranieri and CSKA are going TERRIBAD in Russia (2nd in the league looks OK but they were top only 8 matches ago and have only won 2 in their last 8 in the league) CSKA also have injuries to 3 of their big name players. They might well win but are definitely not odds on shots IMO.

Yeah odds on seems a bit much.  They also opened at 7/4 so it is already in the price a fair bit. Looks about right to me.  If it was November in Moscow I would tend to agree though.   Couple of interesting ones for me.  I priced Bayern @ 6/5 so was surprised to see them trading at 4/5 this morning....can't really understand the move and if City are going to be a genuine top two team in England then 5/1 about them or +3/4 evens is a steal.  Similarly in the Championship I can't understand how West Ham are 4/7 shots against anyone and Ipswich are not bad at all.  Ipswich have conceded 16 goals in 8 games but that is misleading as they conceded 12 of them in two games.  I priced the asians at +3/4 Evens each of two so Evens Ipswich +1 seems very fair.

Where do you see the 5-1 on City mate? Max price I see is 4s (though even that looks big TBH)

I would maybe agreed this time last week before Raniere came in, their defense actually looks worse this season than it did towards the end of last if that was even possible.

Sorry meant 5.0 on City.

Cool, agree that that's too big. Bayern are obv a very good team but 4-1 on a team with the potential of City looks too big. I'll probs just sit the CL out for a while yet as it's a lot tougher this year than it has seemed to be in previous years.

Inter were wank under Gasperini cos he was too stubborn and wanted to play 3-4-3. He didn't have the personnel to play that formation and the defence suffered massively. With Ranieri coming in they've reverted to 4 at the back again and it gives them a lot more of a solid foundation. They played very well against Bologna on Saturday and he played his two sharpest front men in Forlan and Pazzini.

For me Inter and Man City are the best value bets of the day.

Probably lay Bayern and back Inter.

I thought Man City where too big, then I seen the form Bayern where in, played 9 won 9 scored 26 conceded 0, added to the fact it sounded like Man City where poor against Napoli despite playing well in the league and I'd just fade this game, but glglgl.

Big bet for me, City (draw no bet)  @ 5/2

No doubt Bayern are a good team but at 4/5 in Germany the price is pretty much ranking Bayern as the second best team in Europe which I don't think you can judge off a handful of games in the Bundesliga.  To put it in context on the basis of tonight price if the game was played at the Etihad Stadium the prices would be 6/4 each of two which is just ridiculous.....only Barca would be shorter.

Anyone else think Charlton are a big price to win at MK Dons tonight at 2/1?  Charlton on fire, and MK Dons have gone off the boil in the last few games.

That could prove to be a huge price if the rumours about mk's team selection are correct. Looks like they may be playing a few kids and a few others put of position

forlan is cup tied.

Sneijder, Motta, Stankovic, Maicon – out injured

longish trip to moscow.

CSKA form dipped a bit but that means they've lost twice in 8.

Bologna are shit so not taking much from that.

I'm happy with my bet.


People who think man city are value are off their heads imo - bayern are a quality side, city had a tough tough game against everton. Mancini may revert to type in europe and not really look to win the game from the off.

Drawing at home to Napoli means City cant really afford to close ranks, think they will be playing for the win.. Not doubting Bayern are a good side, but price too big imo

who have citeh betean this year? a load of poor teams, you all have no idea how good/bad they are.

if they do come out attacking i'd love to have a few quid on Robben to score.

They beat Spurs 5-1. Spurs were a Champions League knockout team last year. Man U only beat them 3-0.
I don't think they'll come out attacking. I don't think they are favourites but I do think the price is big for the talent they have.
You described the Everton game as "tough tough" but playing at home with 60% possession wouldn't worry me. It took a while to break them down but I don't think it will have taken a lot out of them.

You no a lot more than I do, I just think it's a tough one to call so would fade it as I personally don't think it's great value.

Does anyone know if Badstuber is fit? I read he had flu. Think he played in most of the games in the clean sheet run that they are on.

Are you rating that spurs team? they were awful at the start of the year with their star player effectively out.

Have put a bit on Charlton just in case this is true.

Don't love it, I think the market already reflects the injuries/suspensions/managerial changes for Inter,

1 Julio Cesar; 55 Nagatomo, 6 Lucio, 25 Samuel, 26 Chivu; 4 Zanetti, 19 Cambiasso, 20 Obi; 11 Alvarez; 7 Pazzini, 22 Milito
 
That side doesn't look too bad to me, 5-3-2 could help them.

Cska at home in champs league won 2 from last 9, they are hardly rocks.

No play for me, although if watching the game may be interested in Inter 15 mins in if they look lively enough.

Alvarez comes in for Sneijder and Milito for Forlan, not bad replacements.

Id wish you luck if i wasnt on Inter.

and vice versa

I think the sides at the top of the championship are overrated. With the exception of Southampton, when seeing some of the sides play I haven't been overly impressed at all.

West Ham are no 1.57 shots tonight. They were outplayed at home to Peterboro on Saturday and play a slightly rejuvenated Ipswich who had plenty of chances at The Riverside on Sat.

West Ham should be 8/11 not 4/7 and I'm on the Ipswich +1 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 with 188 bet pretty big. Also had a little bit on the Ipswich match odds @ 7.2.

I've also done Palace +1 Asian Handicap @ 1.81. Palace were awesome when they played at Leeds, have been doing ok since then and Brighton have played a lot of football in the last 6 days or so. I could not Brighton at sub 1.8 and they are 1.71.

The favourites being overrated in the championship atm, just hope I'm right and can make some money from it.

Flush from my skills at picking Hopkin or Chompy to decide what I should have money on I have wagered £50 on a Rangers/West Ham double tonight, returns around 4/5

This gave me a free £50 spin up bet so tonight when these 3 matches are drawn

CSKA
Bayern
Napoli

I will win 2 grand - didn't want to aftertime so see you later for the gloat :-)

Good post.  Agree totally except for Derby who I seem to make value every game (although same goes for barnsley so not sure tonight).  IOt tends to be the same every year in the Championship to be honest.  I am not sure I would ever bet any team at 4/7 in this league unless they had really shown something.

I wasn't really counting Derby as a top of the table side, although I guess I should now.

I've got them for the handicap for the season, I love what Nigel Clough is doing there with his blend of quality additions and good youngsters, I wish Leeds were doing the same.

Seems like someone is out to get them though. 2.5 out to 3.3 at the weekend and 1.9 out to 2.2 today. Hope they prove the market drastically wrong again.

I'm certainly not throwing the result out all together. Man U played Spurs and Arsenal at home within 6 days. They beat Spurs 3-0 and Arsenal 8-2. City spanked Spurs. Spurs spanked Liverpool. City were top 3 last season and have started in top 3 form this season. I don't think in previous seasons if one of the top 3 in England went to Bayern the price would be this big. I think Man U were favourites last season in their game in Munich.

inter 1-0 up, ha ha.

edit - make that 2-0. ha ha

lump on CITEH, i'm way off everything apparently.......

2 all - don't beat yourself up too early

Whoops - bok of the might

Team news is excellent, back 4 is 2 average full backs, a 4th choice centre back and a midfielder. no McDonald up front, no idea who's partnering Morrison

M Morrison anytime scorer any good? When I saw MK Dons they didn't win a header. They've got Beevers tonight but still think they can be got at in the air.

doubt I'd go near him but would want something over 22s I guess

sigh, stupid game

Fml

It gets worse gg Derby

I'm in form....sat on £400 of bets all in trouble - wp gg Tuesday night punting - no hope of a turnaround

Gareth Barry is so out of his depth it's unreal. Where is Nigel?

sigh

Think Mancini is an insanely large price to be next manager fired at 50/1. 

How mkfkin good are you - respect mate, top tipping - didn't listen tonight.  Sigh

VWP Horneris

injured :(

Incredible scenes, 2 90th minute winners on big outsiders.  ;D

Surely that's it for Tevez ?

Agree with Barry criticism but tbf the rest of City's midfield weren't much better.

WP BH, too good.

I know 4/1 shots don't always win but with a nod to ACE2M I think I'm going to have to leave Mancini in Europe.

wd brent,v nice tips indeed

God lol

Seems it :/ Barry was awful. The annoying thing is, we were playing really well till we conceded.

Loving Souness on Tevez.
Hughes who signed him and shares his agent trying to stick up for him is a joke.

What a little ***** Tevez is, always moaning about leaving, no one will buy him for a decent fee coz they know hes a *****, he loses his place because hes a ***** and so he does this which makes him even more of a *****.

spot on

What do you think the most +VE decision would be - sack him for gross misconduct. Not get a fee for him or at least have to go to court for compensation (Mutu Chelsea style) and save on his wages or make him rot while getting Richards and the Toure brothers to beat him with pillow cases filled with bars of soap in the hotel at every away game?

If I had a choice, if this is all totally true btw, make him rot.

If I where manager he wouldn't be in another squad, put him in the U19's.

Roberto Mancini on Carlos Tevez after the Argentine refused to come off the bench tonight: "He's finished with me, with me he's finished."

Just read this thread, but surely this must be POTY.  Can I borrow your crystal ball please?

 ;topman;

BH

 ;applause; ;applause; ;applause;

You can get 25/1 on Shamrock Rovers winning at Spurs in the Europa League on Thursday with Will Hill.
A full strength Spurs team would surely beat Rovers fairly convincingly but as we all know, Redknapp has referred to this comp as 'a nuisance' and he is completely uninterested in it. Spurs will put out kids and reserves. This is the team they put out in the last match;

23 Cudicini
19 Bassong
22 Corluka
28 Walker
29 Livermore
31 Townsend
46 Carroll
09 Pavlyuchenko
17 Giovani (Parrett 90+2)
27 Falque (Fredericks 81)
37 Kane
Substitutes
01 Gomes,
59 Stewart,
60 Barthram,
43 Fredericks,
47 Nicholson,
54 Pritchard,
58 Parrett

Shamrock Rovers qualified for the league stage by beating Partizan Belgrade 2-1 in Belgrade after drawing the first leg at home 1-1.
They lost their opening Europa League tie 3-0 at home to Rubin Kazan and were comprehensively outplayed.
Another possible downside for Rovers is that their season is drawing to a close (they play March-November) and they are 2nd on goal difference with a game in hand. They will be very keen to retain their title and may not try and go all out for a result in the Europa League to keep players fresh.
I think they will though as its the biggest game in their history (until the home tie!) and it could be compared to a Carling Cup tie between a disinterested Premier club and a lower division team that is in good form in their respective league. And we've regularly seen 'big shocks' in some of those ties.
All in all, it's unlikely they'll win but I think a fairer price might be ~10/1.
Ladbrokes actually price them at 12/1 for the game.
I'll be having a small punt anyway.

OMG

Bah, Harry put out a ridiculously strong side.

Well thought out bet irrespective.  Nice analysis.  Think you cop that bet more than 4% of the time for sure.