blonde poker forum

I'm feeling lucky and liking the look of 6 teams this weekend, wanting to pick out a treble though so have any of you got any preference out of these teams?:

charlton,huddersfield, sheff wed, swindon, shrews, oxford

the 6 fold pays 17/1.

On paper I think all look like decent bets imo, what do you guys think? 

I know there are some great sports bettors on this forum, and i know accumulators are mugs bets but I guess i'm a mug punter and would like some input and also to hear your other picks for the weekend.

I'm backing Tranmere at Charlton, Stevenage at Hudd, Chesterfield at Sheff Wed, Hereford at Swindon, Orient at Scunny.

A classic weekend to swim against the tide as someone famous once said on here.

All are 4/1 or better.

In an acca?  ;)

Why not, lets retire!

No team in L2 should be 8/1 v anyone, especially a Di Canio side who have as many personalities as there gaffer.

Main bet tonight is 11/10 for +2.5 goals in Czech v Spain game.  Landed in 10 of Spain's last 11 games, Czech's last 3.

I hope this week you have a few losers then i guess lol :)

I see Spain are 1.94 to win , seems big, have they got injuries or anything of note regarding their squad?

Iniesta, Negredo & Fabregas out but strong otherwise.

How about you win 3, I win 3, fair enough?  ;)

I fink I will play it safe and join you on over 2.5goals, gl us.......oh and while you're here whats ur sig all about?

^^^^

The Barca bit on the left!

lol, havent changed it for months, was from when he was on loan at Milan before he signed perm, big fan of 'Z'

Greece v Croatia.

Really fancy the Under 2.5 and i think Croatia are a decent price as well. Anyone touching this?

You can have 3/5 with me for a bank transfer amount of your choice on the under 2.5 goals?  Friendly sums.

Best bookie price is 4/7 I think

Kind offer but i'm good thanks. Will be using my £40 to X amount challenge funds with any bet on this.

when i said touching this, i meant opinions on the match, not if anyone was taking the bets in case there was any confusion.

So you think overs? with there 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 past? with how Greece play at home?

I dont particulary think there will be overs, just you would be getting 1.60 and I would get 2.66 so we're both getting prices better than are available, so value for all :)

Could be tight Spain have already qualified and Czechs need to make sure they don't get beat.

Ahhh, i see. no worries. its probs a bet to stay clear of for me... will have a think

no probs, PM me pre Kick off if you change your mind, I wont be on here til 2moz now probably

il take 1.6 unders if u want a bet Chip

england 0-0

Am on john terry fgs/lgs and anytime at 33s and 12s.

Just seems type of game he'll be up for, and mainly 33s is just too big. Mainly 25s elsewhere, a serious arb on betfair-plenty traded at 25s and now waiting at 29s- and just a wrong price.

Also think 12s is more than reasonable for anytime. Compared to cahil and co around 20s fgs it just seems a bit of value for me.

Your £50 v my £30?

Bank xfer ok?

Quote to confirm.

Bet on

Fair enough logic and i'm certainly not someone that wld back something at 200s just because it was 150s on betfair, we are talking a 33-1 shot here, i felt the price was wrong/value and also fancied the bet, win or lose i'm happy with that.

The betfair market is always a good indicator and i've done very well using it as a guide on numerous markets over the years.

Also from looking at yr post's time the game was 17 minutes or so in-and young had already scored, no aftertiming on specific bets please!

I could easily claim now i had a speculative punt on 2-2 and it would mean nothing. There to be shot at or not all. :)

lol @ Rooney getting sent off..probs raising bail money for his dad

Chesterfield shouldn't be 9/2 against Wednesday.

Port Vale at 21/10 looks a decent bet.

Brentford 9/4 at Carlisle

Brentford won their last 4 away, Carlisle lost 3 of 5 at home

Reckon Fulham, Spurs and Swansea could be worth a tickle this weekend.

Any thoughts?

I kinda like Spurs a bit but am trying to figure out how much losing a bet and having pleno post "Newcastle United are unbeatable" again will tilt me.  Might be long term -EV.

Stoke - really good record at home. I think Fulham are pony (apart from Bobby Z) and even more pony away from the cottage.
Charlton - Appear to be getting better results away from the Valley this season.
Palace - really don't rate Watford and think that Palace are still underated.

lol

ha, i know what ya mean. I have a prop with him on Xfactor, getting it rubbed in if i lose will tilt me more than losing any amount.

Still, come on the Yids.

I couldnt really put it forward as a tip since I´m a massive fan and I can never be enitirely sure how biased I am but I think Swansea are entirely the wrong price vs Norwich. Norwich are only marginal favourites here in my book. Swansea play a style that is ideally suited to playing away from home, they have played only Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal (and although I didn´t see the game a few good judges tell me we were the better team vs Arsenal) away from home this year. In their other games they haven´t conceded a goal yet. I think confidence is still issue for a squad with so little experience at this level and playing a team that came up with them is just what they need. They´ll expect to win here and justifiably so imo.

Tips from fans involving their own team can be golden so long as they are fairly rational sorts which you obviously are.  BH is always worth listening to on Leeds for example (he is worth listening to on most things to be fair but you get the point).

Yeah I know what you mean, I tend to put qualifiers on things I fancy like that quite a lot perhaps unnecessarily. Not knowing peoples individual financial circumstances I just hate the thought of people knocking it in on my advice. I´m punting very conservatively out of a decent roll and I´m aware that bankroll management is probably most punters achilles heel (obviously don´t have people like you in mind for this concern).

BH is blondes best poster for my money, shame we don´t hear from him more. Shrewd and Funny as hell is a perfect combo for this forum. I´ve been watching The Inbetweeners recently and they haven´t come up with anything even close to being as funny as Chiprich living in the cupboard for a weekend, that stuff was golden.

lol, I'd forgotten about that, happy times :D

link?

Sensible Coupen   

Middlesbrough v Millwall  –   Middlesbrough @ 10/11   
West Ham v Blackpool  –  West Ham @ 3/4
Exeter v Huddersfield  –  Huddersfield @ 5/6
Man City v Aston Villa  –  Man City -1 goal @ 10/11

Hopeful coupen

West Brom v Wolves  –   Wolves @ 13/5
Cardiff v Ipswich  –  Ipswich @ 11/4
Rangers v St Mirren  –  Rangers -1 goal @ 4/7
Kilmarnock v Celtic  –  Celtic -2 goals @ 13/5
Arsenal v Sunderland  –  Arsenal @ 4/9

Tad ambitious combined coupen

Middlesbrough v Millwall  –   Middlesbrough @ 10/11   
West Ham v Blackpool  –  West Ham @ 3/4
Exeter v Huddersfield  –  Huddersfield @ 5/6
Man City v Aston Villa  –  Man City -1 goal @ 10/11
West Brom v Wolves  –   Wolves @ 13/5
Cardiff v Ipswich  –  Ipswich @ 11/4
Rangers v St Mirren  –  Rangers -1 goal @ 4/7
Kilmarnock v Celtic  –  Celtic -2 goals @ 13/5
Arsenal v Sunderland  –  Arsenal @ 4/9
   

   
   
   
   
   


   
   
   
   

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=27866.0

Much prefer your hopeful coupon to your sensible one.

Blackppol 7/2 at West Ham. Value?

Nothing sticks out at me this week but then again I know very little about value of pricing up footie

I quite like it.  Think I prefer betting Blackpool +3/4 though.

+3/4?

+3/4= half stake +1/2 and half stake +1

So if Blackpool lose by 1 goal u get half stake back, if Blackpool win or draw you win

I wouldn't fancy any of those.

Fulham have a historically appalling away record and are yet to win away this season. They have 4 wins in their last 41 away Premier matches. Stoke are unbeaten at home this season, having defeated Liverpool and drawn with United and Chelsea. They are historically one of the strongest home sides in the Prem outside the major sides. 11/4 is not a price I would be attracted by. In fact, I quite like the 6/5 Stoke.

Newcastle are quite a decent side this year, very solid and are unbeaten after 7 games, having conceded only 4 goals. Spurs are certainly the better side but I don't think 6/4 away against an unbeaten side represents any value.

Swansea have scored only one away goal this year, in a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea. Admittedly, they have played Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City away so it wasn't easy but it is their home form that is impressive, not having conceded a goal yet. This pattern was the same last year in the Championship, their home form was their strength and their away form was so-so with 9 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats. They lost this corresponding fixture 2-0 last year.
Both sides are showing some decent form in the Prem so far. Swansea beat WBA at home 3-0, lost 1-4 away to Chelsea and beat Stoke at home 2-0 in their last 3. Norwich won away at Bolton 2-1, won at home to Sunderland 2-1 and lost (unluckily) 0-2 away at Man United. 13/5 Swansea isn't a price that appeals to me though.

Nothing hugley appeals price wise this weekend but if I had to pick one match this weekend, I'd pick Stoke to beat Fulham.

QPR and Norwich for me today.

Anyone have any views on the following?

Stevenage vs CHARLTONN
MK DONS vs Bournemouth
Wallsall vs PRESTON
Exeter vs HUDDERSFIELD
BRENTFORD vs Scunthorpe
AFC WIMBLEDON vs Crewe.

Teams in capitals are the ones I think will win, looking to do a mugs bet accumulator but not sure if i fancy doing all 6!

These are the 2 worst prices on the coupon for me. Can´t really understand how QPR are getting priced up like this (they were a daft price vs Villa too) on the strength of a few talented but ultimately unreliable players.

Hearts
Motherwell
Swansea
Middlesbourgh

£10 Acc.

Not much doing for me today.

Got fairly small bets on:

Swansea +0.5 @ 1.89
Ipswich +0.5 @ 11/10

and Burnley @ 6/4 placed earlier in the week.

Pigs have lost 2 at home already this season both in "big" games (Charlton + Huddersfield)
We've won 4 in a row. 2 in a row away after a horrible start away.
Probably going to have to lose money backing Wednesday tomorrow.
Oh and obv Gary Madine hattrick @80's. He's a goal machine.

Going to save (most of) my money. Backed:
Sheff Utd/ Sheff Wed HT/FT @ 40/1
Madine hattrick @ 80/1
2nd half over 1.5 goals @ 11/10
and maybe Matt Phillips anytime at 11/2

RVP fgs and Arse to win 3-1 @ 46 on BF

Sigh at Wednesday only getting 2 in the last 10. At least we didn't lose the derby and overs in the 2nd half landed.

5mins left. Fingers crossed for you.

Close but happy enought with 3 points tbh.

Roy Hodgson sounding a lot like TK here; ""Fans like that song now. One day someone will tell me how that excites and embellishes their lives, knowing that someone else is going to get sacked in the morning. That's the one thing I've not quite come to terms with." (After WBA supporters sang "You'll be sacked in the morning" to Mick McCarthy during this weekend's match..he's not wrong of course it just reminded me of the sort of level-headed thing TK would say.)

Any love for Rubin Kazan tonight?
Harry's played some poor teams in the Europa this season and it's common knowledge he doesn't really care about it.
They have a few injuries too. I was surprised Spurs were so short.

Thoughts on other games also welcome

Yeah I quite fancy them TBH, would like to see the Spurs line-up first but a Spurs reserve team could get murdered by Rubin tonight (I watched their game over the weekend online and they looked really good).

Rennes is a banker tonight..8-11 already gone but still 4-6 and 8-13 available, I think they should be closer to 1-2 considering how poor Celtic are this season.

trying to figure the maths on whether over 4.5 home wins in early 12 games @ 4/7 is wothwhile.

Lok moscow, Bruge, Rennes, AZ Alk all look relative bankers

Defo, I've got them for the tournament @ 50s.

Gooooooooo Rubin!

Online price on Rubin is gone into 7-2 and 3-1...reckon if you want to back them you'll have to go into the shop and get a coupon out (It's been ages since I've been in a bookie but I'm guessing they'll still have coupon prices if you don't want a ridic amount on, no?)

levante at 3/1 + looks good for the weekend.

B365 on the ManU-City game is their free £50 in play bet again;

Im on Bolton Newcastle cardiff leicester charlton and mk dons returns £333 :D

why no love? this is the beast value going this weekend.

Think a little explanation as to why it's great value wouldn't have gone amiss mate. Everybody posts their fancies here and posts can easily get lost unless you cut the food, and possibly chew it a little, for us.
10-3 now. Hadn't looked at the footie for this weekend yet (and ussually don't have time to look at international footie) and can see why this would be value. Villareal look to be favourites on name and reputation only. They have been truly woeful this season whereas Llevante has been in cracking form.

Very well spotted though..it's a very tempting bet, and one I definitely would have missed...though I haven't checked suspensions yet.

Thanks for the bump.

Gala, Auchinleck and Spartans in the Scottish Cup.

Singles on Newc-1 and a speculative Derby vs Boro. Boro only scored 1 in 5 games and only won 1 at home all season (6 games)

Then a double on Bolton and Leicester

absolutely shocking display so far.

 ;ashamed;

Great start.

So annoyed I was put off by others tipping Villarreal.
Top tip ACE.

another drunk post i don't remember....

WD Ace.

Now if only I had remembered this yesterday :(