blonde poker forum

40/30 villain over ~100 hands
3/3 fold to cbets at this point
what is plan on river?

Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: whale ( $25.10 USD )
Seat 2: fishreg ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 3: villain ( $127.25 USD )
Seat 4: fishreg2 ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 5: fishhero ( $163.00 USD )
Seat 6: megatard ( $208.40 USD )
fishhero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
megatard posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to fishhero [  Kd Ad ]
whale folds
fishreg folds
villain raises [$2.50 USD]
fishreg2 folds
fishhero raises [$9.50 USD]
megatard folds
villain calls [$7.50 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, Jc, 6d ]
fishhero bets [$10.00 USD]
villain calls [$10.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]
fishhero bets [$24.00 USD]
villain calls [$24.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
fishhero

i probably check-call? I think betting again is too thin. you basically beat KJ, QJ, QT and KT.

c/f  > b/f >> c/c > b/call imo

Think I like this, have to agree. Shame I read through the posts before thinking about it myself....

Thing is, there's alot of jacks and other hands he may be calling the turn with expecting you to barrell an ace, so I think c/c isn't as bad as it looks, infact I do think this is really close, probably c/f to a shove might call a bet thats not a shove..

mmmm.  thinking about it again, if he's playing 40/30 do we give him credit for knowing that's a perfect double barrell for us?

on the other hand, his small sampled fold to cbet stat means that he defo has something on this flop, I expect we can rule out kq because he prolly raises the turn with it and he prolly raises the turn with all his twopair combos as well?

I think it's close, but we have an Ace and a King, and for those reasons, I c/c.

cant really b/f river as you have a potsized bet left on the river.

c/c river is terrible as its soo hard for our opponent to have air here. He doesnt bet KJ for thin value in this spot, we dont expect him to turn 10x Jx into bluffs so if we c/c we're almost always beat unless he has AQspecifically imo.

C/f if probs best in this spot tbh as we never expect villian to bluff or show up with worse if we call.

if you had his f3bet stat then we can narrow down his range and evaluate which option might be more optimal but you didnt include it.

I mean shoving is alrite but we've also gotta think about how often hes actually calling river bets with 10x Jx, so its a really villian dependant shove, if you think hes stationey then i just shove, but if you think hes not going to call down light vs you then its an easy c/f.

i'm check folding vs someone decent dont think its too close in a vacuum.

check/hope he checks, and yeah agree that calling a bet if it comes won't be good