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Title: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 16, 2011, 10:03:14 PM 50p/£1 at DTD
7 handed Fish limps in MP with around £80 stack. Loose player, MP+1, playing around £200, makes it £7. Folds to sb who calls playing £200 effective. Hero dealt Ad 6d in bb, calls £7 (on reflection, probably should have just folded /thread). Fish calls. All stacks apart from fish's are £200 effective. Pot: £28. 4 players. Flop: Ac Ahrt 9s Checks through. Pot: £28. 4 players. Turn: 7c sb checks, hero checks, fish checks, mp+1 bets £5. Sb calls, hero calls, fish folds. Pot: £43. 3 players. River: 5d Sb checks, hero checks, mp+1 confidently throws in £30. Sb calls. Pot is now £103. Hero? £30 to win £103, need to be right just over 22% of the time. At the time I felt I was bluff catching. I can be ahead of the sb's calling range, but it is the original raiser I'm concerned about. Felt he could easily check back AQ, AK, AJ, 99 on the flop to be setting the tarp. On turn, considered c-r but couldn't see much value? Backdoor flush draws are the only worse hands I can see calling, as well as all better aces and full houses (feasible the original raiser checked back 77 for example). Felt I could potentially extract more value by just calling, with my hand rather under-repped. On the river I did a little puke, the confident bet on the river felt strong to me. Villain had not shown many aggressive tendencies all night, so felt it was never really a bluff. With sb overcall, does trips with a 6 and a 9 kicker over 22% of the time against these two players' ranges? Line checks/thoughts please :) Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 16, 2011, 10:15:10 PM *sigh, edit above should be trip aces with 9 and a 7 kicker.
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 16, 2011, 10:48:04 PM its 100% a call imo, and once again you've played the hand really well.
info on the SB would be pretty useful, like he should have a pretty strong range here, but most people at these stakes wont check A* on the turn I'd actually expect him to have a 9x hand most of the time, although HE SHOULD NOT call the river ever with a 9x. Fold, imo would be absurd given you can beat some MP value bets and the SB (unless he's really good) has a worse hand most of the time. I'd be more worried about the SB's call than the £30 bet. Also don't ever c/r this turn, and I would personally never fold pre but it wouldn't be bad to, I don't think it really matters Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: mulhuzz on December 16, 2011, 10:52:23 PM think this is the kind of board where people will valuebet and call with JJ and TT etc making this a pretty quick call I think.
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 16, 2011, 10:56:21 PM Thanks for the quick responses on my PHAs, really appreciate the feedback.
Sb is a relatively competent reg imo, perhaps a little spewy tho. Does this change our decision at all? I'm guessing if I see him as slightly splashy it makes a call even more of an option. Quote think this is the kind of board where people will valuebet and call with JJ and TT etc Do we really think MP+1 (who I see as pretty bad) will confidently value bet JJ/TT when there are two calls in front of him on the turn? Surely he assigns at least one of us an ace, and assumes we are not folding to a river bet? Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 16, 2011, 10:57:48 PM Do we really think MP+1 (who I see as pretty bad) will confidently value bet JJ/TT when there are two calls in front of him on the turn? Surely he assigns at least one of us an ace, and assumes we are not folding to a river bet? I can be pretty confident when he bets the river he doesn't think either of you have an ace. Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 16, 2011, 11:02:50 PM Quote I can be pretty confident when he bets the river he doesn't think either of you have an ace. If he doesn't give either of use credit for an ace, what does he think we have that we are calling a 75% pot river bet? I would imagine he is the kind of player that if say had JJ/TT, would think, 'I'm only getting called by an ace' and would check back river. Though bad players at 50p/£1 have a tendency to merge/thinly value bet without realising it! What ranges do you think he assigns us (sb and bb) SuuPRlim? Not criticising, just trying to learn more :) Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: pleno1 on December 16, 2011, 11:03:51 PM its quite a reluctant call, but i call nevertheless, wp on flop/turn, pre is ok too, but semi borderline.
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 16, 2011, 11:09:11 PM I dont know tbh, I don't think he is assigning you any ranges he prolly thinks that once its gone flop-chk, turn-chk no-one has an ace. I think a big danger playing vs this type of oppo is to think above his level of thought process, you'll have a much better grasp of his level of thought/hand reading and can adjust accordingly, but from my experience I would imagine he is not "putting either of you on an ACE" this isn't to say he is value betting JJ/QQ cos he most likely isnt, but could be bluffing a lot, or betting with a 9 for no reason.
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: zerofive on December 17, 2011, 06:45:23 AM I remember being present at the time of this hand and being pretty surprised that you folded an ace. Even more surprised that you had an ace tbh. Your hand was so under-repped. At the time I remember thinking it was pretty close, but having looked at the hand through some fresh eyes just now, I'm definitely leaning towards a call. I think if you had a little more history on both players, you would cringe at the idea of folding now. The bettor is, as Dave (suuprlim) has correctly identified, is the kind of player that just "doesn't believe." He loves to call with bottom pair for the times he is right, and shows a tendency to value bet pretty thin (probably without realising) in spots like this. Could also be a badly-sized bluff as the info he has on the hand suggests that your combined range with the small blind is predominantly flush draws and small pairs.
The small blind in this hand is becoming somewhat of a reg, but don;t have a lot of showdown info on him yet. Your assessment seems correct thus far: decent but with spewy tendencies. From what I know about him, he is unlikely to play an ace like this throughout the hand. Although, I did pay him off earlier in the evening so probs best not to take my opinion ;) Reckon he'd defo want to raise an ace here 'cause he obviously doesn't think you're going to overcall, and expect his range here to be 88, TT, JJ, T9+. I think your thought process on the river was clouded by the fact that you immediately assigned villain 1 to the top of his range and then saw the call as an excuse to fold what by now feels like a marginal holding. From what I remember you folded pretty quickly. Probs selective memory kicking in from the times you see fish just smash it in out of nowhere and then show you the nuts fairly predictably. Different kind of fish imo and in hindsight I like a call. Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: GreekStein on December 17, 2011, 06:47:53 AM Why not lead turn?
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 17, 2011, 09:23:54 AM Why not lead turn? honestly prefer a chk ideally, leading the turn makes your hand (even to fishy players) look like exactly what it is, you'll even get people "hero folding" smaller pairs I think. Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: GreekStein on December 17, 2011, 10:34:06 AM Rly dave?
In a small live game I'd expect to get 2 streets if anyone has 88+ Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: pleno1 on December 17, 2011, 10:48:34 AM Nah I think we look absurdly strong to a random when we bet twice.
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 17, 2011, 11:50:04 AM i mean one thing that gives leading the turn a lot of merit is how often the turn should get checked through (which isnt great)
something about the turn/river in this hand makes me think he has 55 lol, still defo a "whatever" call though imo Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 17, 2011, 12:48:31 PM Yeh I agree that leading the turn pretty much turns our hand face up, unless we can have a balanced range here? (i.e. some nines, flush draws, full houses, aces etc.) But then again, this is 50p/£1, can't see villains understanding a range, let alone a balanced one.
As Sean has eluded to, I made a fold, on reflection, a bad one! At the time, I think my thought process was indeed one of 'fish always have it here'. As I said in OP, more concerned with MP+1 than sb, sb has a wide range that I am ahead of. Just see so many ppl live pay off, I just wanted to think a bit deeper than 'i have an ace, call', but I guess this isn't 300/600 on HSP. Appreciate all the feedback tho, I really feel that calling pre oop with Ad 6d is a leak here? Like, Ahrt 8c is a snap fold pre for me in the bb here, but nut potential of Ad 6d makes it a bit more appealing/playable oop? Will post results soon or do ppl want them now? Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: cambridgealex on December 17, 2011, 02:41:07 PM Results aren't really that important, you could've folded and been wrong but it be the correct fold, similarly you could've called, been right and it be the wrong call.
I suppose in this case it could be useful to confirm our reads that he was vbetting 9x or JJ etc. Fwiw, I do think it's possible to lead the turn here and be fairly balanced. I'd lead 9x, Ax, full houses and flush draws SOMETIMES. I think it's close between checking/betting and probably depends on what level the other players in the pot are thinking. The worse they are, the more I'm leaning towards leading the turn. As eluded to already, I think people are being far too concerned with balance. In a 50/1 balance just isn't necessary at all. Really, it's not. As the game becomes more reg infested it becomes more important of course, but if it's you and Sean and 2 fish in a pot, I'd be MUCH less concered about turning my hand/range face up vs Sean, if it means stacking one of the fish. This is where it's gets really interesting. Because you can turn your hand faceup as being Ax here by doing xy or z and reg B in the pot knows this, then he raises you?! the levelling wars are endless! Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 17, 2011, 03:18:19 PM Ok so results:
Hero folds. Sb shows Qh Qs (really surprised he didn't three bet pre tbh). Villain (MP+1) mucks. D'oh! Though as Alex said, result isn't that important, wanted to think about ranges and peoples' thought processes. Quote Fwiw, I do think it's possible to lead the turn here and be fairly balanced. I'd lead 9x, Ax, full houses and flush draws SOMETIMES. I think it's close between checking/betting and probably depends on what level the other players in the pot are thinking. The worse they are, the more I'm leaning towards leading the turn. +1. Tbh although it turns my hand quite face up, I feel now that I probs should have bet something like £20 for value/balance, even if MP+1 folds, sb can still call turn and river if he thinks I'm value owning myself with a 9, TT, JJ, or I'm bluffing. I pretty much never expect to get c-r by sb on turn. Quote the levelling wars are endless! #whenwillitend Thanks for the feedback so far :) Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: cambridgealex on December 17, 2011, 03:34:43 PM welcome to blonde!
anything lildave (suprilim) says in pha is gold dust btw, ignore at your peril! Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: pleno1 on December 17, 2011, 05:01:47 PM if we c/r river what does he call with?
Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 18, 2011, 02:07:44 AM your pre-river line in this hand is, imo, really good, the mistake you've made is thinking "he wouldn't do X with Y hand, and would only have X in Y spot" and etc.
one of the top nuances to live cash games are being able to fully identify people's motives, in and out of hands, once you do this you should be much more adept getting into his thought processes. for example, Who is this guy, why is he here, does he have a job/family etc, why is he playing card games with me at 3.15am? Is he a quiet/polite person, he is loud and brash, does he have an ego etc... These kind of questions are pretty important and it's actually really easy to find the answers to most of them because you can just ask most of the time lol, a polite, family man in his 40's is way less likely to be bluffing than a brash, overly confident man (business owner) who's hitting on the valets, this person is also way more likely to have an ego and to try thin-ish value bets "I made this kid call with just X" and so on. If he has kids the chances are he has to be up early and will be looking to splash as much as possible, and so on.... Playing game theory optimal is great and its 100% essential to know for any success in poker, but games at this level you need to put that mostly to one side and just try identify with the opposition and why they are here doing what they are doing, what it is they are actually trying to achieve - and give them it (it's rarely going to be "make money" btw) The point i'm trying to make is sitting there thinking what your perceived range is and so on is time wasted when you could be looking at the guy or asking him what he does for a living/if he has kids/what he's doing tomorrow etc Someone showed me a good video the other day where one of the first things said was... "exploiting your opponents will always be more profitable than game theory optimal play" so true of these live games. Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: rbc_mike on December 18, 2011, 06:48:47 PM Quote Insert Quote your pre-river line in this hand is, imo, really good, the mistake you've made is thinking "he wouldn't do X with Y hand, and would only have X in Y spot" and etc. one of the top nuances to live cash games are being able to fully identify people's motives, in and out of hands, once you do this you should be much more adept getting into his thought processes. for example, Who is this guy, why is he here, does he have a job/family etc, why is he playing card games with me at 3.15am? Is he a quiet/polite person, he is loud and brash, does he have an ego etc... These kind of questions are pretty important and it's actually really easy to find the answers to most of them because you can just ask most of the time lol, a polite, family man in his 40's is way less likely to be bluffing than a brash, overly confident man (business owner) who's hitting on the valets, this person is also way more likely to have an ego and to try thin-ish value bets "I made this kid call with just X" and so on. If he has kids the chances are he has to be up early and will be looking to splash as much as possible, and so on.... Playing game theory optimal is great and its 100% essential to know for any success in poker, but games at this level you need to put that mostly to one side and just try identify with the opposition and why they are here doing what they are doing, what it is they are actually trying to achieve - and give them it (it's rarely going to be "make money" btw) The point i'm trying to make is sitting there thinking what your perceived range is and so on is time wasted when you could be looking at the guy or asking him what he does for a living/if he has kids/what he's doing tomorrow etc Someone showed me a good video the other day where one of the first things said was... "exploiting your opponents will always be more profitable than game theory optimal play" so true of these live games. I found this post really interesting and useful , appreciate the advice. Think this PHA has really shown me that there is so much more to poker than just the mechanics of betting folding etc. in a live scenario. Think by not evaluating MP+1's motivation from his point of view, I overcomplicated the hand. I mean, its 50/1 at DTD ffs lol, people like pairs, people don't fold pairs, the game is often as easy as that. Title: Re: Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river? Post by: SuuPRlim on December 19, 2011, 01:17:22 AM well remember online default assumptions/lines are a lot more practical because a lot less information is available to you
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