blonde poker forum

Early in the daily $162, half the table is limping liberally. Villain has done a lot so far and i've assumed by this point he's bad.

Our equity should be really decent til the river but the run out definitely isn't great. Any thoughts on my betsizing and checking turn/giving up the river?

Poker Stars $150+$12 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players -
[url=http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_dc]DeucesCracked Poker Videos (http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1577610) Hand History Converter (http://www.handconverter.com)

MP1: t5370       179 BBs
MP2: t2876       95.87 BBs
CO: t3049       101.63 BBs
BTN: t6910       230.33 BBs
SB: t2760       92 BBs
Hero (BB): t3220       107.33 BBs
UTG: t3345       111.50 BBs
UTG+1: t3235       107.83 BBs
UTG+2: t2940       98 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with Qs Ks
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, UTG+2 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, BTN calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t222, UTG+1 calls t192, UTG+2 calls t192, 2 folds

Flop: (t741) 5c 3s: 9s (3 players)
Hero bets t479, UTG+1 calls t479, UTG+2 folds

Turn: (t1699) 3h (2 players)
Hero bets t777, UTG+1 calls t777

River: (t3253) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets t1742 all in, UTG+1 folds

Well played. I like the sizing. If anything maybe slightly smaller on turn just to make the river shove that much harder to call from villain.

Villain makes this look better than it is im afriad - he should never be folding with such a small bet to pot ratio

Agree, I'd defo give up this.

Wait wat? this is fine

given this why would we assume he's going to find a fold when the FD bricks? he's getting 3:1 on a call and will just "put you on AK" and call (most of the time :P)

Pretty sure this works way more than the required ~35% of the time imo

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

How often do you think it is actually a bluff?  What rivers would you not bluff?

I think for sure it's a bluff >1/3 of the time, at this stage of the tourney there is almost zero air in our 3bet range pre-flop and he's gonna have to expect us to give up barreling our non premium spade spade combo's a really high % of the time, so by the time we get to the river we're pretty value heavy imo.

As for which river's not to bluff i'm not so sure after a pairing turn card. I actually think an ACE would be a bad river to bluff, as the Aspades Xspade is a decent chunk of his value range and we cut our value range to AA/AK when we bluff that card

So why does he expect us to give up our ss combos? The guy is described as bad, he's limping in etc. If I flush draw bricks and the board runs out like this, everyone I know of that description will just put you on the draw that missed and call.

Really think this is a bad bluff.

Agree with Alex.

Thoughts on check/shoving turn? Not sure i like the 3 barrels, the board doesn't change too much and obvious draws miss. He has probably got this far this 1 pair, why do you expect him to fold now? Also, great price to bluff= great price to bluff catch :)

+1

Board runs out pretty bad for you to barrel, I probably give up on the turn, hope it checks through and bink river. Fish don't don't fold pairs enough in these spots imo.

Also, how has this gotten to a stage where I'm more of a nit than you?

He doesn't he defo expects us to barrel off our spade spade combos but pretty much all our spade/spades are premium (AK/AQ) and he'd have to expect us to quit barreling out non spade spade no pair hands on the turn a decent % which takes a LOT of the air out of our range. Maybe this guy has no concept of this, but from a theory point of view....

Our range is significantly stronger than his and we're getting 3-1 to bluff with a hand that has minimal chance at showdown. It's a very tough spot for (even bad players) when you put people in spots where they have to bluff catch. Pretty happy it's the nut line tbh (although not 3betting pf also a strong option)

It's high variance but once we've bet the turn I think a river jam is pretty mandatory

the problem is, if he isnt flushing, which he can play in both aggresive and passive ways, the guy has a pair.

When the turn pairs he should give up his 1 pair hands, but he doesnt. I think the way he has played the hand he has lots of 1 pair hands which he isnt folding by the river ("because i came this far").

I dont think the play is terrible, and I never stop barrelling. I just think a bad player calls often enough here to make this a bad play. Personally I ck turn as I still think he has a 77/88  8/9 9T type hand

Don't know why I'm bothering to post again itt since almost everything has been said and somehow people are still entrenched, but just to embellish on what lildave has posted slightly, it seems to me that the sort of fish that limp-call are the type that postpone all thought in a hand until either A) the river or B) someone is all in. This situation ticks both boxes and I think a lot of fish will change their minds and call turn fold river. Remember to a fish all in with anything less than top pair is a pretty massive hero call and they will often comment about "crazy" river calls that are totally obvious to anybody that is able to hand read. The same psychology that leads them to check call 2 streets and then make massive bluffs on total brick rivers lets them put in half their stack and then fold when nothing has really changed since they last called.

And as lildave says (I think) how value heavy is our range right now?? And before some ***** turns up and says "lol balance" (flushy), I mean it from a point of view of how our range looks, to make a hero call a fish has to put us on squarely on missed overs that we overraised out of the bb into a field of limpers and bet into 2 people on a raggy flop. This river shove just works so often imo. And remember this needs to work ONLY 35% OF THE TIME. There is also some % of the time where the fish has a busted A-high flush draw, and although we're ahead of smaller flush draws anyway, we're not going to be check-calling so if there's a chance that they will ever bluff with these then we can add those times onto the 'successful shove' pile too. So overall we only need to bluff them off a pair some microscopic % of the time to make a shove better than check folding.

I mean you might be right from a vacuum POV (as in this specific guy prolly has a pair and will prolly call) but I don't see how we can reach these assumptions when we have the perfect "air" to triple barrell and we're making decent money on each street by betting. If i'm going to deviate from quite obviously (but not hugely) profitable spots I need more info than we have been giving here.