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Title: Line check OTR please Post by: Rod on January 04, 2012, 12:40:59 PM Opponent is playing 19/5 pre. Often folds to c-bets but is quite stubborn if he does call the c-bet. I have seen him call down one hand where his opponent was betting big all the way when he only had top pair weak kicker.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 7 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com Hero (BTN): $25.00 SB: $9.75 BB: $23.80 UTG: $32.39 UTG+1: $61.33 MP: $25.00 CO: $12.94 SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25 Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has Tc Kc fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, BB calls $0.50 Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 5h Js As BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20 Turn: ($4.00, 2 players) 2c BB checks, Hero checks River: ($4.00, 2 players) Qs BB bets $2.51, Hero calls $2.51 To me he either has an ace here or a flush draw. I would expect an ace to raise the flop or bet the turn more often than just check it, so does this mean I should be betting the turn on this kind of board? Am I missing value by just calling on the river? Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: Bully87 on January 04, 2012, 12:47:52 PM I call. We have a showdown hand now. If he has a flush then fair dos. Crushing everything else.
Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: rfgqqabc on January 04, 2012, 01:04:09 PM I thought about betting the turn and probably would in the end. You can always bet all 3 to get him off Jx, and he could easily be calling with a flush draw, so you can charge him the wrong price there as well. This river has to be a call really, not sure about the value in a raise because he has to fold Ax right? Sucks when he has turned/rivered 2pair tho
Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: chatban on January 04, 2012, 01:32:35 PM Raise/fold to like $8
Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: Skippy on January 04, 2012, 01:48:33 PM I thought about betting the turn and probably would in the end. You can always bet all 3 to get him off Jx, and he could easily be calling with a flush draw, so you can charge him the wrong price there as well. This river has to be a call really, not sure about the value in a raise because he has to fold Ax right? Sucks when he has turned/rivered 2pair tho Don't agree with any of this. I don't like a second barrel on the turn as I don't think he folds much he called with on the flop, apart from a J most of the time, You're just pouring money in with no equity- I don't think he's going to have many floats on this board. Don't think he's folding an A to a 3rd barrel on the end on most rivers either. So in conclusion- profitable when he has a J, not profitable when he has anything else, which is most of the time. As for the end, you're right, he definitely could have a flush. But he could have lots of other stuff too. I think he could call a raise with AJ, A5, QJ, AQ, 55. ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=AsJs5h2cQs&g=he&h1=KcTc&h2=AJ%2C+QJ%2C+A5%2C+AQ%2C+55%2C22%2C+7s8s%2C+4s5s%2C+5s6s%2C6s7s%2C7s8s%2C8s9s%2C9sTs&s=generic) 48 trials (Exhaustive) board: A:spade:J:spade:5:heart:2:club:Q:spade: KcTc 87.50% (42 wins, 0 ties) AJ, QJ, A5, AQ, 55,22, 7s8s, 4s5s, 5s6s,6s7s,7s8s,8s9s,9sTs 12.50% (6 wins, 0 ties) He might even call a raise with Ax,. Flushes are hard to do. Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: muckthenuts on January 04, 2012, 01:56:07 PM Gotta be raising that river brah
Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: outragous76 on January 04, 2012, 02:07:17 PM Gotta be raising that river brah Title: Re: Line check OTR please Post by: rfgqqabc on January 04, 2012, 02:08:21 PM I thought about betting the turn and probably would in the end. You can always bet all 3 to get him off Jx, and he could easily be calling with a flush draw, so you can charge him the wrong price there as well. This river has to be a call really, not sure about the value in a raise because he has to fold Ax right? Sucks when he has turned/rivered 2pair tho Don't agree with any of this. I don't like a second barrel on the turn as I don't think he folds much he called with on the flop, apart from a J most of the time, You're just pouring money in with no equity- I don't think he's going to have many floats on this board. Don't think he's folding an A to a 3rd barrel on the end on most rivers either. So in conclusion- profitable when he has a J, not profitable when he has anything else, which is most of the time. As for the end, you're right, he definitely could have a flush. But he could have lots of other stuff too. I think he could call a raise with AJ, A5, QJ, AQ, 55. ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=AsJs5h2cQs&g=he&h1=KcTc&h2=AJ%2C+QJ%2C+A5%2C+AQ%2C+55%2C22%2C+7s8s%2C+4s5s%2C+5s6s%2C6s7s%2C7s8s%2C8s9s%2C9sTs&s=generic) 48 trials (Exhaustive) board: A:spade:J:spade:5:heart:2:club:Q:spade: KcTc 87.50% (42 wins, 0 ties) AJ, QJ, A5, AQ, 55,22, 7s8s, 4s5s, 5s6s,6s7s,7s8s,8s9s,9sTs 12.50% (6 wins, 0 ties) He might even call a raise with Ax,. Flushes are hard to do. Not sure why he wouldn't raise a set/AQ/2pair otf. OP said he was stubborn, so could easily have a J, which we have a lot of equity against if he calls, with any spade/K/Q being good for us, as well as the possibility he folds. I'm not sure if I'd be checking the turn 100% or betting the turn 100% probably somewhere between the two depending on session dynamics etc. Seeing the guy is quite passive pre, and seems to love to call, raising the river might be fine, but i can't see him calling here with AT, so it depends if the combination of 2pair/sets is > flushes, and presumably he raises A5/AJ/55 this only leaves him with 22/AQ/A2/QJ and I think the combinations of a flush are probably greater. His bet is an interesting size, and i think a poor player at these stakes tends to bet small with weak hands and bigger with stronger hands so i don't dislike a raise to 8 really, just think its close |