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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: SuuPRlim on February 19, 2012, 02:33:40 PM



Title: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 19, 2012, 02:33:40 PM
Some kind of interesting hands here, wonder what the world thinks, these two both link nicely into each other.

1)

4 handed $10/$20/$40

I open to $140 on the button with   Qh 5h

two of the blinds call.

Flop ($430) 4c 5s 5d

chk, chk I bet $220, fold, call

Turn ($870)  3h

Chk, I bet $520, he doesn't skip a heartbeat in raising to $1600.

I've played with this guy a decent amount on my last trip here, he is about 45 and plays quite solidly, he made a kind of bizarre hero call vs me the previous day so it's fair to say he thinks I'm quite aggro/will barrel off and will expect a pretty wide open from the button. HE doesn't strike me as the sort of player to do much in the way of bluffing, I remember trying to make some hero calls vs him in the last trip but they all failed.

He is playing $3.1k behind the turn raise, I cover. Thoughts?


Now hand 2) vs the same player.

$10/$20/$40 9handed with a $80 straddle.

folds to the same guy who makes it $400. I flat in the $40 with  Aspades Qs the straddle calls as well (very loose italian man)

flop ($1,230)  Ad 8h 6d

He Bets $2,500 with $3,000 back, we cover.

We will have Italian loonball behind.

What are you doing?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: Skgv on February 19, 2012, 10:23:33 PM
Yikes i played a few of these games at bellagio last year an i got crushed ! so maybe my answers are invalid m8
To be honest well horrible spots both, First one probaly easier choices i think i flat turn an if he barrels river fold as he would probaly check overpair on river an not turn his hand to bluff if you say hes really solid
2nd one is sicking Sick read fold perhaps ! Obviously the second hand would help if we know the answer to the first hand  m8 as crucial information there !


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: Whollyflush on February 19, 2012, 10:37:34 PM
Hand 1 I'd likely call/call. Hand 2 I think I'd fold the flop and pretend the hand never happened. I think your chopping at best with the loon balll behind.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: rfgqqabc on February 19, 2012, 10:42:26 PM
Got to call/call in 2nd one right?

Thinking call in the second but impossible to know without exact in game feelings imo


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: jezza777 on February 19, 2012, 10:59:47 PM
Call / call in hand one.
Just pass in hand two, feels like the hand is going nowhere good even if you are best now.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 19, 2012, 11:09:47 PM
Everyone's instincts seem to be to fold the second hand and just not tell anyone.

Quite glad about this, I did decide to fold, felt disgustingly nitty but as soon as the hand was over I felt pretty good about it.

The second one I'm still wondering, are we saying call/call mostly because he can be value-betting worse?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: pleno1 on February 19, 2012, 11:18:42 PM
fold first, jam second.

He isnt b/f this flop but could c/f a bunch of turns. If youre rolled for cash games i think its a clear jam but sometimes taking a shot in a game it might be a fold. This probably sounds terrible but its trueeeee



Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: jezza777 on February 19, 2012, 11:25:19 PM
If He sees you as a bit aggro and wide then he can deffo be raising for value with worse here. Also he may just be air balling you as the 3 fills some bb calling range draws. also we still have outs if he is raising better than trips so got to call turn at least.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: pleno1 on February 19, 2012, 11:27:35 PM
lol just saw pot size in hand 2, fyl.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: jezza777 on February 19, 2012, 11:30:06 PM
fold first, jam second.

He isnt b/f this flop but could c/f a bunch of turns. If youre rolled for cash games i think its a clear jam but sometimes taking a shot in a game it might be a fold. This probably sounds terrible but its trueeeee



Seems really marginal to be pushing here mate .


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: pleno1 on February 19, 2012, 11:40:15 PM
lol just saw pot size in hand 2, fyl.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 20, 2012, 12:14:20 AM
If He sees you as a bit aggro and wide then he can deffo be raising for value with worse here. Also he may just be air balling you as the 3 fills some bb calling range draws. also we still have outs if he is raising better than trips so got to call turn at least.

would be incred to river a queen.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: jezza777 on February 20, 2012, 12:31:15 AM
If He sees you as a bit aggro and wide then he can deffo be raising for value with worse here. Also he may just be air balling you as the 3 fills some bb calling range draws. also we still have outs if he is raising better than trips so got to call turn at least.

would be incred to river a queen.

Yep would be an easy game then . He can have 66 and other stuff here tho . I mean we can't be folding trips in a four handed game when we have button raised and standard Cbet with an aggro image.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: muckthenuts on February 20, 2012, 08:12:17 AM
1st hand i think call/call is best.

2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 20, 2012, 08:13:14 AM
If He sees you as a bit aggro and wide then he can deffo be raising for value with worse here. Also he may just be air balling you as the 3 fills some bb calling range draws. also we still have outs if he is raising better than trips so got to call turn at least.

would be incred to river a queen.

Yep would be an easy game then . He can have 66 and other stuff here tho . I mean we can't be folding trips in a four handed game when we have button raised and standard Cbet with an aggro image.

why not?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 20, 2012, 08:14:42 AM
1st hand i think call/call is best.

2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?

I thought at the time it was gonna be AK? Just one pair remember


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: muckthenuts on February 20, 2012, 08:22:39 AM
1st hand i think call/call is best.

2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?

I thought at the time it was gonna be AK? Just one pair remember

Then aren't all his Aces essentially gonna be played the same?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 20, 2012, 01:21:52 PM
1st hand i think call/call is best.

2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?

I thought at the time it was gonna be AK? Just one pair remember

Then aren't all his Aces essentially gonna be played the same?

mmm not sure I get the question, or if i do I don't know the answer,


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: Skgv on February 21, 2012, 04:39:40 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: DMorgan on February 21, 2012, 08:03:40 PM
These are the numbers for Q5s vs all combos of A5s, K5s, A5o, 35s-85s, boats and 67. From your description I decided to take away A2, 33, 62s


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  53,081,424  games     0.113 secs   469,747,115  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    44.582%     43.52%    01.07%          23098910       565597.50   { 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, Ac5c, Kc5c, 8c5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6d4d, 6h4h, 6s4s, 5c4c, 5c3c, Ac5h, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ah5c, As5c, As5h, 76o, 6d5c, 6h5c, 6s5c }
Hand 1:    55.418%     54.35%    01.07%          28851319       565597.50   { Qh5h }


---


So assuming that he's not folding any of these hands (which I don't think he is with your image thrown in) then its a jammmmmmm


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 21, 2012, 08:19:17 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?

no i folded the AQ, felt like a massive nit then felt ok about it afterwards


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 21, 2012, 08:20:40 PM
Dan i really don't think he's going to c/r get $5k in with 64


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: DMorgan on February 21, 2012, 08:34:42 PM
Second one I'm call/calling, people just spaz too much in big straddled pots imo, think he can do this with any ace from his preflop range, flush draws and very little that actually beats us imo


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: DMorgan on February 21, 2012, 08:35:51 PM
Dan i really don't think he's going to c/r get $5k in with 64

didn't mean to include that, will look at it again later, interesting spot for sure


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: Skgv on February 25, 2012, 02:15:32 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?

no i folded the AQ, felt like a massive nit then felt ok about it afterwards
But you still yet to explain the first hand that took place as surley that changes the dynamic of the 2nd hand when u have ace q as his image will depend on the result of the first hand surley ?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 25, 2012, 02:46:09 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?

no i folded the AQ, felt like a massive nit then felt ok about it afterwards
But you still yet to explain the first hand that took place as surley that changes the dynamic of the 2nd hand when u have ace q as his image will depend on the result of the first hand surley ?

yh I guess you're right. I called him down in hand 1 and he had 44. I was so close to folding the turn, I was genuinely very close to folding the turn for a couple of reasons, firstly the way he checked raised INSTANTLY, as in, the second my chips hit the felt he just grabbed a bunch of hundred$ chips and made it $1600, so in my mind vs a player like this, who IMO would NEVER contrive a plan on the flop to reverse float, and then c/r my turn bet with something like  7c 8c (or one of the other back doors). The speed of the turn c/r rules out 67 as well imo as I think this player would at least stop to consider for a second with it being a paired board.

So I felt that the snap turn c/r means he has a hand he had decided when he called the flop to c/r the turn, as he also checked the turn very quickly, so he must have decided this was the line he was taking on the flop. So he either has a pre-empted bluff which I do not believe him capable of, or a value hand, which he believes is ahead of my hand. I think he would call 45 from the BB pf, perhaps even unsuited, I also think he'd call 44, 56o, 57s, 53s prolly 85s and also A5 and K5s, I don't think he has J5, even suited, or any other 5's. I felt 100% he has one of these hands, but convinced myself I had to call/call which I regretted, there is no way I can call the turn and fold the river as I believe he is jamming the river 100%, even with the hands I beat (like he isn't going to get defensive and just c/c A5 otr when i call turn) so once I've commited to the turn call, his range remains exactly the same but i'm getting a much much better price now.

I'd been losing big prior to this hand, and making some big folds, so I felt like I was maybe getting overly paranoid about the situation thinking every hand was a set-up and people might start bluffing me more.

I don't know if I'm being results orientated or not but the more time I've had to reflect over the Q5 hand I can't help but think it's a bad call down, but I'm nicely reassured that everyone here would have taken the same line, there hasn't been a sinlge call for a turn fold ITT.

I think the AQ hand is kinda different to ^^^, he's bet 1.6x pot 4way in a 3bet pot into me, a cray italian and one of the solid reg's who has limp/called preflop, and the board is A68dd, I find it extremely difficult to think he would commit a $4.7k stack in this spot with JJ-KK, and I also don't think he would raise AT preflop all the time, or that he would be so willing to commit when he could easily run into AQ/AJ, or even AK that chose not to 3bet (although I think i'm the only one who could have AK in the hand prolly) he could very easily have AQs though, or KdQd, which is where it get's tricky, but personally thinking back and re-affirmed by the comments on here I kind of think he A*'s played this way are entirely AK, and AQ.  My experience with live poker is just that this man shows me AK here all the time, which I why straight away after the hand when I saw the relieved look on his face that no1 had called I immeadiatley felt better.


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: Skgv on February 25, 2012, 03:01:24 PM
Yes that makes it simple as if you would of won the first hand it would defitnely changed ur view on 2nd hand, fwiw if im losing in a game i would of played the first the same way an probaly snap got up an drifted to the blackjack table an did the rest :). But that makes the 2nd hand a fold with all the info on this player which if hes just standard rock isnt where sometimes the leveling goes on that u know hes always got it an he might use that image to his advantage ? To be safe an the way u were running just fold! How did u finiish up that day in that game an i hope u left sharpish if things didnt improve ?


Title: Re: Hero or Zero?
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 25, 2012, 03:08:59 PM
Yes that makes it simple as if you would of won the first hand it would defitnely changed ur view on 2nd hand, fwiw if im losing in a game i would of played the first the same way an probaly snap got up an drifted to the blackjack table an did the rest :). But that makes the 2nd hand a fold with all the info on this player which if hes just standard rock isnt where sometimes the leveling goes on that u know hes always got it an he might use that image to his advantage ? To be safe an the way u were running just fold! How did u finiish up that day in that game an i hope u left sharpish if things didnt improve ?

I lost K3s vs 45o on 332 for $12k and then KK into AA p/f for another $10k.

Tilt went to Sushi Samba for morale boosting sushi, got food poisoning and spent the next 20hours throwing up or in my bed in my Wynn Tower Suite (not even subtle)

Was a below par day by all recollection. Managed to swerve BJ and Dice though, so a small win there.