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What price would I be to successfully summit Everest by June 2016, with zero climbing experience at moment and being still unfit, overweight and lacking any of the qualities generally needed

What price would I be? And what price would you lay?

Hypothetical of course

Probably dependant on 100's of things, but main one how much £££ you have to throw at backroom/support team, equipment, trainings expeditions I would guess

fk knows :D

your age would be a factor and your current health status
plus your mental stat like are you stupid enough to take a risk on conditions close to the top to win the bet
when it could put your life in danger


for differerent people i would want different odds

100/1

Well I'm 29, wouldn't take stupid risks, would obey turnaround times etc- but would be willing to pay for best team, equipment, oxygen and Sherpas. It's only hypothetical at moment, I just disagree with price I was offered by someone

100s was the price I got offered. I think the true price is either below 5-1 or bigger than 1,000,000-1

Basically if you dedicate 4 years you should do it. I was arguing that a 22-25 year old single overweight poker player would be better off having 20k on themselves to win 2m climbing Everest than bothering playing poker- probably could make a documentary from it and have all expenses covered. The £2m climb.

I think a million is probably the price.

If you had said Kilimanjaro, then I would think 5/1 would be fair. Basically you would be taking 5/1 to get fit in 3 years, pretty difficult but doable.

Everest is as near to impossible as can be.

If I was single and had 4 years I'd snap take 100s

I'd take 5s Kilimanjaro with a weeks training

If you are truly unfit, then you are never 5/1 with a weeks training.

I know 4 or 5 people that have done it, and I consider them super fit and they found it tough.

Suppose it depends on your definition of fit.

IMO this is a mutli bet in preparation, logistics, team, equipment, fitness and then the last leg the climb itself. I would hazard a guess at the climb being 20-30% of the overall mission. if you put the hard work in before you get to base camp then it's highly likely you will give the climb everything you have, though there are still a number of factors that could impact on the successful climb. If I was pricing it up, I would go 25/1 as if you have the desire and determination then the sky high odds fall by the wayside.

Didn't Chris moyles climb it for comic relief a few years ago?

With the kind of support he'd have been getting it would have been harder to fail, surely?

5/1 is ridic wrong for kilamanjaro, it's a very difficult tourist trek but most people could manage it and they certainly wouldn't need anywhere near 3 years prep

everest is a completely different beast

Yeah Kili requires zero technical ability. Everest requires previous experience preferably at 8000ms+~ which means a previous excursion to one of the other 13 8000m mountains

Killi is just a walk.

What price couldn't you say no to Dave ?

he is only after a weeks prep though

book max bet ->spread rumours of your extensive training program -> negotiate buyout -> profit.

Only 3000 odd people have climbed Everest, I would have guessed far more.

If someone honestly had zero climbing experince at the age of 29, I think 100/1 is very short.

If the bet was big enough I'd take evens Kili within a year. Wouldn't do Everest at this stage of my life but if was younger and had nothing else to do I would 100% have 20k@100s

As for weeks thing probably was slightly flippant but would take 5-1 with months prep for sure

basically as I understand kilamanjaro once you've done the physical training which may not be a huge amount depending on your base fitness level it's pretty much a flip whether you make it to the top or not and it generally depends on whether you get hit by altitude sickness or not. a large % fail because of this because the relative ease of the climb means you go way too quick to acclimatise properly

probs about 10k per year reach the top

How is the marathon running prop bet going?

Most people can't afford to climb Everest. That's the hinderance- if u wanna thrown 100k at it you could nigh on get short roped to the top. Hence the debate about overcrowding and inexperience in the 1996 Everest disaster

As long as u climb high and sleep low u can nearly eliminate any chance of altitude sickness in a 10 day programme to summit Kili. Most expensive guide groups have a 95-98% summit success rate

People fail when they don't have 10 days to spare

That's why it takes 30 days or so to climb Everest. Aclimitising at different base camps

Happy to take 3/1 ON for Snowdon.

in that case I'd take evens to go tomorrow

I'd want a pretty big price for everest as people tend to die

That blonde lass off Blue Peter is probably reading this thread weeping at all the sick bets she could have landed.

U would want a higher price K2 or Annapurna in that case

Have a look at their death rates compared to Everest... Crazy high and obviously ridiculously harder to climb. If you're interested in this stuff Ed Viesteurs book "No shortcuts to the top" is real good

mortality rate on everest between 1921 and 2006 was only 1.3%, much lower than I would've thought actually

and most deaths happen on the way down. would you still get paid out on the prop if that happened or does there have to be a safe return to base camp?

Summit counts as win. Have a look at Annapurna stats :)

Incred! VwP ;0)

what prompted this discussion? were you seriously considering it?

and what price annapurna? don't think I'd take any price tbh

I would seriously consider it if circumstances were different. No chance Annapurna or K2, inexperienced climbers have no chance and wouldnt be able to get on a group. You can just about get away with it on Everest still

what happened to that prop that the loser has to stay in a hotel in hull?? was a scoop or wcoop tourney irrc

Sacked off

i'd rather have to climb everest even with my broken back that stay there

Pretty sure I would die.

i am sure you would too you would never be able to order food nd drink as they would never understand you

Even footy teams stayed in Scunthorpe when hull were in the prem.

http://www.globaladventurechallenges.com/international/everest-basecamp-trek/

:(

Realistically it's got to be many thousands to 1.

Thing is though if someone were to actually stump the money up to cover a £500 bet at 10000/1 then your odds decrease dramatically because of the huge cash incentive.

If you knew you were getting £5M quid for succeeding I think your odds drop to low double figures.

Climbing Everest is risking death so my best advice for any 22-25 year old single overweight poker player is you would be better off sticking to cards.

Getting fit and acquiring climbing skills is one thing. But half way up with head about to explode, snow and wind pissing in face, lungs on fire, horrid black toe or whatever, and every step in slow motion that 100/1 isn't looking so generous. Unknown factors like how your body will perform in unchartered extreme altitude/conditions, weather, sickness, other problems as well as risk to life should mean long odds imo.

over 100/1. You need conditioning built up over a long period, just being generally fit and healthy for 5-10years leading up to it would be absolute minimum.

It's not 100/1.

If somebody was willing to let me bet 50k and leave 5 million quid in a safe escrow then I 100% guarantee I'd be able to do it.

If there was no financial incentive then it's actually an infinite long shot because I ain't doing it!!

I think my true personal odds are somewhere around the 20/1 mark. I base this on how much money I'd want to do it which is about £3M and how much money I can get my hands on to actually place the bet.

For Dave or anybody else it would be very different. He might want £5M to do it and have £100K to bet in which case he's 50/1. If he can get his hands on £500K then he's actually only 10/1.

There is no doubt at all that somebody reasonably healthy can achieve this. It just comes down to the reward at the end of it.

If Dave's only reward is personal advancement, sponsorship for some random charity and a few pats on the back then I think it's at least 10000/1. If that was my reward then as I've already said it's actually infinite.

nah, you're not factoring in remotely enough random issues that could affect his chances. As i understand it you're a pretty strong/fit individual, the price for you would be drastically different.

Doubt a bookie would lay the bet tbh. Especially given the fact that climbing Everest can be "bought" to a degree. Getting a crack team of guides and sherpas round you, deffo reduces the difficulty.

What about the north face of the Eiger, heard that is a tricky little climb?

In terms of the bet I think paying sherpas to carry you at any stage needs to be ruled out

Sherpas don't actually carry people lol. There has been rumours of them "short-roping " people but only on the descent and that is incredibly dangerous for both parties

Problem in laying a bet like this was touched on earlier in that so often the upside of the bet isn't the full bet amount because the bettor will probably look to buy out at some stage in first couple of years if it isn't going to happen and if it is becoming odds on you are on the hook for the full amount.  Of course you could refuse to allow a buyout but most people are happy for the money in their pockets etc.

I had already pictured the expedition looking something like this, with Dubai crushing a few MTTs on the way up.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_tugjD0mUn6M/TP3ej6zwReI/AAAAAAAABg0/-iKslIGsPto/s1600/8.jpg)