blonde poker forum

Instant PHA time- I've got 99 UTG in the Super 50, but we are only 6 handed. I raise to 1100 playing around 12,000. A player who I suspect does not play poker professionally, playing 8k, calls from the button. The BB (who covers me) who seems somewhat decent, or at least tight, bumps it up to 3k.

Can I call here and take a flop, or is it a ship-it or fold situation. I was 80% sure the button would come along- so it seemed to be 2k more into a pot of 9k pre most of the time, with 9k back for me.

calling is tez ship or fold IMHO

ps assuming there is an ante raise less

I think this is a fold. If the guy seems decent then he knows what you know about the button and knows he is likely to peel and hes going to be out of position to him so is almost always 3betting for value. You are crushed by his value range with 99

You are 1 in 8 to hit a set. You are not priced in so is a fold for me.

Hmm, good point. This player was an enigma. I'm not sure if he was actually good, or just tight. Being tight is another good reason to fold though, of course.

ur image is pretty tight I assume?

Exactly what I was going to write.. He's good this one.

Compared with you, yes.

Yeah, pretty tight compared to the table.

That table was pretty loose the whole time I was dealing to it. The 3 way between seat 1, 4 and 5 was a perfect example.

FWIW I think the flatter was in the SB this hand, but I could be wrong/not paying enough attention. Anyway I was villain in this hand. Stato is right in that I expected SB/BTN to fold ~0%, at least to that sizing and therefore my range has to be weighted strongly towards value hands only (you're obviously not in great shape vs my value range), but obviously you don't know that about me and so I could just be squeezing in your eyes I guess.

I certainly didn't expect you to flat. My flop decision could be another discussion entirely (I actually think my play is pretty standard, but maybe not) but once you decided to flat on those stack sizes all my previous assumptions about you went out the window.

I think this is probably a fold, there was no 3b dynamic between me and you or with the rest of the table etc (think it was my first 3b) so it's not like I'm gonna be going nuts and 3b/c any lower pairs/AQ, especially seeing as you had a tightish image.

You can never call and folding should be top of your list imo

Sorry to confirm that I am, in fact, rubbish.

yh calling is a bit of a trainwreck.

we have woeful visibility, as in we don't know what flops that don't include a 9 to stack off on, as in he can semi-bluff and VB vs us almost perfectly and we're going to really struggle to make good decisions anywhere outside of guesswork, even with the implied odds of a pretty much lock down gtd double up when we hit our man we're still getting no where near the price to call p/f given the reversed implied odds of when we stack off badly vs overpairs. there is no way you can fold s 753 flop when he sets you in vs a range of OP's and overcards but rarely 88 or 77 cos of the price you'll be getting on the flop, which has been driven from a bad pre-flop call.

Also you have 30 big blinds back, which is a workable stack-size, you can open some pots and win the blinds and antes some and have a stack just big enough to be able to put pressure on people pre-flop, when you call this one you're risking a valuable part of your stack because when you get to 18-22big blind teritory you'll mostly just be looking for good 3bet jamming spots which is quite boring and mostly governed by what cards you're dealt.

Jamming is pretty spewy, and slightly forgivable in the midst of a very aggressive dynamic, if you're getting 3bet by this player a LOT you could jam 30bigs with 9s here as he'll be light a high% and you should expect a LOT of fold equity and decent equity when you're called (assuming ofc that because he's 3betting so much he'll call the 4b jam slightly wider as he expects you to adjust and 4b ship a slightly wider range for value) but as it seems there is no such dynamic I think its a very, very easy fold.

sigh, but fold.

with history then gg.

Defo fold can't see this kind of player making a raise like this with less then 99. It looks like he is wanting some kind of value and your not getting the right odds to call to set mine. Cant imagine Ak doing this either. Plus you have a guy sat behind with not many chips.

So its definate not a calll its a fold or shove. But the best option is fold here

Lil Dave are we folding JJ here as well and going broke with QQ+ and AK?

I'm just going to go broke with JJ+ here, TT would prolly just fold and not tell anyone. JJ and 99 are not the same hand here despite what some people will say imo, JJ means we no longer lose to JJ and it plays much better vs his thinner Value 3bets than 99 does. There is defo a case to fold JJ given the lack of any dynamic but meh i'm prolly just going with it here.