blonde poker forum

Everyone is pretty deep on the table. Villain is a good player, one of the best in the .5/1 live game, but no real online experience, learning to play well but not complete yet, who is though. He is also running super well, and playing his best.

I have  Ks Jh

Guy limps playing 900, I'm playing ~300 and Villain is playing 800 as well. I make it 7, V flats and Guy flats. Flop is  Ad Ts 7s. Guy checks, I bet 15 and Villain makes it 50 pretty quickly. Guy folds. 

I felt like he looked somewhat uncomfortable, and it was pretty  quick for the player himself. I have such an awkward stack size to call, but his range is weighted way towards, F/ds, Ax hands, and then nut hands like AT/77 and also never has AK/AQ here, and has 3bet me recently and shown down AJo in a 3bet pot co vs btn. He 3bets only a value range, ie more likely to 3bet 88 than Q5s.

Can i shove profitably with the gutterball here or is the stack size not right? Or is the play just tez. Not quite sure, I have about 270 total behind so its a pretty big raise, and possibly something I wouldn't do with a monster here. Winning a ton on the night too, like 600 up. Mental?

Folded like a pussy but it feels really close, and I rarely do much post vs him oop. I've tightened up noticeably lately and he prob knows this.

Call - KJ is a really lucky hand for you... especially if villain has KQ spades....

 :hello:

fold. you just don't have enough equity to make a move here imo, if the flop was T97 or something then it'd be a lot different.

shoving would have been a big spew imo

i like calling you can get funky on spade turns and theres a variety of things that can happen when you take to the streets.

Surely not this deep?

That's why I didn't shove, but its such a good spot between the speed of the action and the capped nature of his range so y'at stack size is good? 190 behind?

looking at stacks we might be abit to shallow, its quite close i'd probably fold but i don't hate jamming.

I'd fold but shoving wouldn't be the worst

<3 this expression!

Any more thoughts on this? Keeps going through my head and i just can't see enough off his range calling for it to be -ev. I was hoping someone would make this easy but i guess I'll have to get calculator out myself and have a look.

its a live 9handed game. jamming in these spots is so bad for your hourly. if you want the variance then gl.

as for the profit in the jam, get odds oracle from pro poker tools, thre is a shove equity calculator on there which is really good, you give him a flop range and then enter what from that range calls and it'll give you an EV of the jam. Failing this try flopzilla which will tell you what hands from your range you should jam as a bluff etc.

This still doesn't deter from the fact that in FR live games its extremely hard to make profit from these plays, people make wierd raises and call offs we can't factor for.

I know his game so well though, so i can define his ranges v. well and he doesn't really understand mine at all. So many good factors but def variance there too. Thanks for the sites etc

edit: That sounded ungrateful in my head second time around, not sure why. Cheers man

if you post his flop ranges here i'll put it into shove equity calc for you.

I don't doubt you know all this stuff v well, so why not wait till you have a better hand and set about exploiting him then, you have a really terrible hand here you'll have a better one pretty often. perhaps im getting nitty in my old age lol but i've made so many plays like this in my time and I know I never do it live anymore

Sorry to finally get back to this, but with all the flopzilla talk lately I couldn't resist.

Do you want his flop range for fold/call/raise?

Just raise? Need any preflop stuff?

Preflop he peels with:

AJ-A9o
AJ-A2s
KQ-KTs
QJ-Q9s
JTs-J9s
T9s(T8 sometimes)
98s
87s
76s
99-22

He 3bets TT+ all the time, might 3bet 99 here, probably not. He 3bets AQ+ everytime, can 3bet AJ. Not sure if he is 3betting AJo or AJs or not real strategy there.
I expect him to raise all AsXs hands, as well as sets, 98ss, J9ss, QJss, AT/A7. I'd also expect him to raise AJ-A9 here, and maybe even weaker as i don't think hes comfortable calling down, so would raise and fold to a shove. I expect him to raise Tx hands sometimes (10% maybe) and i expect him to raise some bare flushdraws like Q9ss, 65ss sometimes and fold to a shove.

(http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/641/sprslim.png/)

I had a crack at it, and presuming i got everything right, the shove is slightly below breakeven now, but becomes plus ev with smaller stack sizes,
(http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/808/sprslim2.png/)

I love combinatorics in the morning!

I dont have flopzilla myself, all I can do is do a shove equity calc for you, which I will do, gladly :)

*edit* Just seen you've already done it!

Looks about right to me. It seems close as you thought and a small losing play.

You can program the frequencies of which he has certain hands as well by putting :X% after it, for E.g KQ:65% would be 65% of the combo's of KQ, i.e if you think he only bluffs with thatt hand 65% o the time.

A few other points, you've missed out A7s from the range? surely he's raise/calling that as well? Also you put AhJs when i tihnk you meant AsJs.

Either way what you've proved is if your ranges are right, 200 deep you could find small profit in a shove, (9 pounds) but 300 deep you're not making money, which sounds decently right to me I think as he legitimate value range has you so crushed that I don't think the size of your raise has much bearing on his calling range at all, so you'd actually show a greater profit if you were ~175 deep here imo.

I wanted to give him a little spaztic raise call range, and was just a misclick. Would redo but its not really worth it. Glad it was at least close and I'm not mental, also glad I didn't shove tho

Think this has pretty much been said already by you and others, but...

1. You are too deep to jam here.

2. With shallower eff stacks this move starts to become interesting against guys who you know will raise-fold all their mid-strength top pair hands for info/protection/cos they don't known what else to do with them.

3. A nutshot and a backdoor FD covers a multitude of sins.

Does anyone know if there is better software for this? I believe i will have to pay for Oracle soon :/

Can anyone give me a rough idea if it'll be better to have  5s 6s/ Aspades 8d/ Ks Jh here? I'll get off my arse at some point but if people know...:P

Pokerstove does this for you.

6s5s is the best hand to have against a realistic calling range for villain of two pair+, NFD (which is also TP of course) and combo draws.

Board: Ad Ts 7s
   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    79.750%     76.66%    03.09%             13661          550.50   { TT, 77, ATs, As9s, Ac8c, As8s, As4s, As3s, As2s, QsJs, Ts9s, T7s, 9s8s, ATo }
Hand 1:    20.250%     17.16%    03.09%              3058          550.50   { As8d }

Board: Ad Ts 7s
   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    74.998%     74.91%    00.09%             19282           22.50   { TT, 77, ATs, As9s, Ac8c, As8s, As4s, As3s, As2s, QsJs, Ts9s, T7s, 9s8s, ATo }
Hand 1:    25.002%     24.91%    00.09%              6413           22.50   { 6s5s }

Board: Ad Ts 7s
   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    79.361%     79.29%    00.08%             20408           19.50   { TT, 77, ATs, As9s, Ac8c, As8s, As4s, As3s, As2s, QsJs, Ts9s, T7s, 9s8s, ATo }
Hand 1:    20.639%     20.56%    00.08%              5293           19.50   { KsJh }

Obviously if villain will fold some of his combo FD/SDs to your big overbet (he should do so, but very few live players will fold here) then you do even better with the 6s5s since his calling range has you dominated a little less often.

Note that the above results only show which hand you would sooner have WHEN CALLED. It does not take into account how the different hands you can have reduce the chances of you being called - i.e. through the blocker effect. If you have As8d it reduces the number of combinations of AT that villain can have and thus means that your shove will succeed a greater percentage of the time (although when he does call you are in much worse shape than if you had the 6s5s).

Edited to say: Just noticed that you specified he cannot have TT in his range because he 3bets it preflop 100% of the time, and that he will never have T7s in his range either. You can use pokerstove yourself to do the same sim as I did above, but remove TT and T7s from his range. The results will change a little bit but not too much.

whats the turn?