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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: zerofive on March 16, 2012, 01:40:11 PM



Title: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: zerofive on March 16, 2012, 01:40:11 PM
1/2 game. About £750 deep, villain covers. Not played much with villain, he seems like a decent thinking player, solid, but clearly capable of some moves. I guess he just thinks I'm a nit 'cause I haven't played any hands apart from two kings a few orbits ago.

Pre: In the cutoff with Ad Qd. Folded to hijack who makes it £8, I call, villain is on the button and 3bets £27. OR calls, I call.

Flop (£84) Ks Td 8d

Check check, villain bets £59, fold, I raise to £133 he calls. Obv my hand has decent equity, could be freerolling, can have AJ/QJ/J9 here so there are some gin cards. Taking Kd combos out here because really I'd expect the 3bet, but could just be calling down with AK/KQ/KJ. If I'm facing one of those hands, I can realistically have TT or 88 in my range here.

Turn (£350) Ks Td 8d 2s

Bet £192, villain calls. This is a really shit card as it's almost the ultimate brick. Maybe he randomly has backdoor spades or something, but I'm sure by this point he has AK or KQ.

River (£734) Ks Td 8d 2s 3c

???? again, super bad card. Have £400 and change behind. Do we bomb it? We're polarised to missed draws or sets here I think, and there are way more of the former in my range, and if he has AK I'm just expecting him to sigh call it off plenty.

Thoughts on line/process/river decision?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: outragous76 on March 16, 2012, 01:44:31 PM
Def keep going!

I think the important part to this hand is the c/r on the flop as it makes sets part of your range

He can have missed a load, can't see him calling just 1 pair, he probs sweats a 2 pr hand


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: pleno1 on March 16, 2012, 01:46:45 PM
definitely c/f river., He isn't calling turn and folding river, if he has kxdd which I assume you're thinking of perhaps folding then he 3bets flop decent % of the time. If he has qq/jj he probably folds the turn, he doesnt really have any combos of xxss.

c/calling river is even better than jamming as his value range should be super narror and theres a lot thats missed.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: outragous76 on March 16, 2012, 01:58:12 PM
definitely c/f river., He isn't calling turn and folding river, if he has kxdd which I assume you're thinking of perhaps folding then he 3bets flop decent % of the time. If he has qq/jj he probably folds the turn, he doesnt really have any combos of xxss.

c/calling river is even better than jamming as his value range should be super narror and theres a lot thats missed.

You calling off 200bbs on the river with kj?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: pleno1 on March 16, 2012, 02:00:36 PM
definitely c/f river., He isn't calling turn and folding river, if he has kxdd which I assume you're thinking of perhaps folding then he 3bets flop decent % of the time. If he has qq/jj he probably folds the turn, he doesnt really have any combos of xxss.

c/calling river is even better than jamming as his value range should be super narror and theres a lot thats missed.

You calling off 200bbs on the river with kj?

if i call turn then yeh.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: cambridgealex on March 16, 2012, 02:15:42 PM
3b pre.

Slightly bigger on the flop, 145 imo.

Turn is good, I thought about check raising allin, but it's just hard to see us checking with 2pair+ so I don't think he's ever gonna b/f the turn.

River is a cf for sure. He's not folding very often.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Pyso on March 16, 2012, 07:15:44 PM
Not sure the tiny check raise on the flop achieves much, other than put you in this unnecessary world of pain. What were you hoping for? A fold? Once you brick the turn you are turning your hand into an opportunity to donk off a load of money.

You have ace high; he has something and he doesn't appear to want to fold. He also has position on you, giving you the opportunity to out-think yourself into the bargain. Added to that you don't actually know much about him. He knows (with the limited info that you have given him) that you are a nit and in his world you are unlikely to be barrelling with draws or air, therefore what he has he clearly thinks is better than what you have.

Sorry to look at it in such simple terms but it's Friday afternoon after a tedious week of work and those are my first impressions.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 16, 2012, 08:43:40 PM
This is one of those weird spots, where it looks like he is bluff catching and made his decision OTT to call down turn and river, however this is quite stnd so it's prolly less likely that you'll fire the river as a bluff, in this instance he can call turn and fold river quite happily, because he thinks you have a decent amount of semi-bluffs OTT but not OTR.

OR, he truly has decided that once he calls turn he IS calling river, so it makes river bluffs bad from you, and river calls bad from him, so you can exploit him by chk/folding here and jamming your value hands.

I personally jam in these spots a lot purely because so many people give up I think you actually get a ridic amount of credit vs good thinking people and I really hate the idea of not having a bluff range here but if people really are going to call river on bricks nearly always when they call the turn then you havee the world's easiest exploitation by just chk/folding so this seems to be the general consensus.

I'm not even sure I'm in love with c/r the flop this deep as it's so hard to get stacks in and we're OOP, and I'd have defo 3b pf


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: DMorgan on March 16, 2012, 09:06:29 PM
3b or flat pre, either is fine I'd probably 3bet though.

You can go a bit bigger on the flop I think. Not sure why all these small sizings that are the nuts in tournaments have started turning up in 300bb deep cash games? Seen quite a few recently. They work great in tournaments where people often feel that they have to commit their stack to a hand or fold but this just isn't the case so much in deep cash games so I don't think its optimal to be using smaller sizings as a default. I don't think that necessarily applies to this particular hand cos you've set up bet/bet/jam stacks nicely, just a general observation.

Check/folding river as played. Doubt you get many folds from AK/KQ here to make jamming profitable


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 16, 2012, 09:48:15 PM
I agree with Dan. I always say that betting big should be your default and you need a reason to size smaller.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 16, 2012, 11:55:09 PM
What's all this check-fold the river advice about? Check-call the river, and expect to be good a substantial amount of the time. Given the turn action we have the nuts right?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: pleno1 on March 16, 2012, 11:58:21 PM
yeh agree, although i starred post with c/f as i wrote was becoming obvious it was a relatively clear c/call, altho i think we need to know a little more about his 3betting tendancies and an estimation on his wtsd.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 17, 2012, 03:09:02 AM
What's all this check-fold the river advice about? Check-call the river, and expect to be good a substantial amount of the time. Given the turn action we have the nuts right?

Yh I mean a high % of the time this will go chk/chk surely?

Also LOTS OF PLAYERS are capable of valuebetting well in these river spots. I would be jamming JJ here and abso loving life


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 17, 2012, 04:25:21 AM
Wtf! How do you have JJ by the river?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 17, 2012, 04:41:09 AM
Wtf! How do you have JJ by the river?

You don't think its reasonable given the flop action for someone to end up with JJ in our villains spot here?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 17, 2012, 05:05:16 AM
Wtf! How do you have JJ by the river?

You don't think its reasonable given the flop action for someone to end up with JJ in our villains spot here?

It is not reasonable no. Not only are you allowed to have a folding range vs flop check raises and turn barrels, but you must have a folding range. Otherwise you are a huge station and villain can crush you by simply never, ever bluffing you. By the time you are facing a turn bet, if you still have JJ in your range then it is right down the bottom of your range and should thus be folded. You know that any Tx hand is better than JJ right?

And if you somehow do end up with JJ at the river, it is far too thin to value bet. Only hands that you can realistically hope to get hero-called by are AdQd/AdJd... and as this thread shows most players won't be calling a river bet with those hands anyway.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: DMorgan on March 17, 2012, 06:53:50 AM
pleno and lildave gone ballist ITT

I don't think nearly enough people pull the trigger on the river to be able to c/c in this spot in a live cash game at DTD. If his pre flop range is wide enough for him to get to the river with enough busted draws to make this a c/c then we now lose to some of his bluffs too.





Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 17, 2012, 07:10:12 AM
I don't think nearly enough people pull the trigger on the river to be able to c/c in this spot in a live cash game at DTD. If his pre flop range is wide enough for him to get to the river with enough busted draws to make this a c/c then we now lose to some of his bluffs too.

A read was given on villain as a solid thinking player capable of a few moves.

Can you name many hands that villain just calls the turn with but now feels are strong enough to value bet? AA, AK, two pair and sets are jamming the turn almost always given the SPR and board texture. I suppose Kdxd might only call the turn and then might feel able to jam river. But most players 3b the flop with top pair plus flush draw combos even though they usually shouldn't. Then we are left with KQ and KJ. 21 combos, which is rather a lot at first glance. However, villain is most likely not usually 3betting these hands preflop, plus he might very well jam the turn with them, plus if he doesn't jam the turn then he might well not even value bet the river with them, so we can heavily discount these combos.

Finally, whilst I agree with the general principle that most live players do not bluff often, I actually think this is a bit of an oversimplification. In fact, many live players bluff MORE often in certain spots than competent online players - and one of these spots is when they have missed a 'big draw' and bluff even though they rep a very thin value range cos it's the only way to win the pot. Also, many live players just don't value bet even remotely thin on the river, especially when the pot is already big with deep stacks - they are just relieved to get to the river with KQ (or JJ lol) in such a big pot and check it down. This means that when they do bet the river in a big pot like this their range is super polarised - and in this case villain usually won't have any nutted hands in his range by the river as he will jam the turn with them, which means he is now polarised to missed draws and, well, missed draws.

I am exaggerating a little bit of course, and it's not like I really believe we are good on the river a huge majority of the time. But we are getting a great price to call on the river, so we only need to be good a small amount of the time to make a profitable call (exact remaining stacks not stated - "400 and change" - so can't work it out exactly, but we will need to be good somewhere around 27% of the time to break even on a call). And IMO we will be good substantially more often than this. This makes it a great spot to hero call.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: pleno1 on March 17, 2012, 12:34:31 PM
jamming jj vs 99% of players here would be suicidal.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: DMorgan on March 17, 2012, 06:19:06 PM
I don't agree that a solid thinking player capable of making some moves is jamming the turn with his AA/AK/2pr hands with as high a frequency as you suggest Stu. I think its entirely plausible that he decides to call/call. If he realises that combo-wise hero has far more draws that made hands (which he probably does) then call/call is obv the nut line for him

I don't think you can give him credit for being able to jam his missed draws on this river without giving some credence to the fact that he can realise that call/call is a great line here vs an aggro villain that will be capable of jamming missed draws himself.



Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 17, 2012, 06:44:40 PM
I don't agree that a solid thinking player capable of making some moves is jamming the turn with his AA/AK/2pr hands with as high a frequency as you suggest Stu. I think its entirely plausible that he decides to call/call. If he realises that combo-wise hero has far more draws that made hands (which he probably does) then call/call is obv the nut line for him

I don't think you can give him credit for being able to jam his missed draws on this river without giving some credence to the fact that he can realise that call/call is a great line here vs an aggro villain that will be capable of jamming missed draws himself.

The thing is Dan... this is actually wrong. And the reason it is wrong is to do with the SPR on the turn, combined with the extremely wet board texture.

If villain jams the turn, hero only needs ~27% equity to call... which means he is actually priced in with his strong combo draws (so villain can get the money in right now rather than hoping for him to bluff it off on the river, whilst simultaneously 'protecting his hand' - or, even better, villain gets hero to fold in a spot when he should call). And if hero has a bare flush draw or straight draw and has to fold then this is good for villain too.

Do some equity calculations (or a crEV/pokerazer sim) comparing the EV of forcing hero to fold a bare FD or SD to the EV of allowing hero to preserve his equity in the pot by letting him see the river. First, be generous to your viewpoint and assume that hero will bluff every single time he misses and villain will never ever call when hero hits his draw (even when it is the 'semi-disguised' straight draw) and you will see it is very close. Then change the assumptions a little and assume that hero will sometimes choose not to bluff the river when he misses, and might sometimes get paid off when he hits... and you will see that jamming the turn becomes clearly the most +EV line for villain when he has a made hand which he intends to take to showdown.

Now obviously no-one does this sort of calculation at the table... but this is not the point. I am almost certain that IN GAME pretty much every competent player (and even most non-competent players) would still realise this intuitively/subconciously. They might phrase it in different terms - "The pot is really big now and there isn't much behind... he's probably not folding if I jam now so there's no need to continue to trap, plus it is time to protect my hand" or something like that. But this is actually just saying the same thing as the analysis in the paragraph above. And it is pretty clear and obvious too. The reason it would so obvious whilst actually at the table is mainly, as I said at the start, due to the SPR on the turn combined with the board texture.

Try a little visualisation/empathy exercise... put yourself in villain's shoes and imagine yourself facing this turn bet, looking at the texture of the board, counting the effective stacks, and realising there is only another ~400 left to bet into what will be a ~740 pot after your call. If you still come back and tell me that you (or another competent player) would consider flatting with a set or AK then we will just have to agree to disagree  - I think we've done this before in a thread ;) ... But I think you'll see what I mean if you do this visualisation/empathy thing.

Btw, if the SPR was a bit bigger and/or the board texture was a little drier then you would of course have a point.

ADDITIONAL: I don't think I have explained the concept above very clearly. It is a really easy concept but actually surprisingly difficult to put into words. So I am going to give a really extreme example of the concept and hopefully it'll make sense and you'll see how it applies in a diluted form to the hand in this thread... Imagine it is PLO and on the turn the board is something like  67QJ with two flush draws. One player bets the pot, say £200 - and the other opponent JUST CALLS leaving himself only another £100-£150 remaining in his stack. In this situation the opponent who just called can have a massive draw; he could have a 20 card wrap with two flush draws for example. But the one thing he CAN NEVER EVER HAVE is a decent made hand. In fact it is actually almost impossible for the caller to have any showdown value whatsoever in this spot, even as little as say top pair no kicker. Because with any sort of showdown value whatsoever to go with his draw he would simply push for his last few chips (for the times he is against a draw with no SD value). Does this make sense? And can you see how it transfers in a watered down sense to the NLHE hand in question?




Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 17, 2012, 07:20:20 PM
Wtf! How do you have JJ by the river?

You don't think its reasonable given the flop action for someone to end up with JJ in our villains spot here?

It is not reasonable no. Not only are you allowed to have a folding range vs flop check raises and turn barrels, but you must have a folding range. Otherwise you are a huge station and villain can crush you by simply never, ever bluffing you. By the time you are facing a turn bet, if you still have JJ in your range then it is right down the bottom of your range and should thus be folded. You know that any Tx hand is better than JJ right?

And if you somehow do end up with JJ at the river, it is far too thin to value bet. Only hands that you can realistically hope to get hero-called by are AdQd/AdJd... and as this thread shows most players won't be calling a river bet with those hands anyway.

Thing is we're dealing with live poker where every hand is a vacuum to itself. No offence to Sean, the reason I made the point about the JJ (I'm sure under nearly all situations id fold OTF) was to illustrate my initial point that I don't like a flpo c/r because IMO the way Sean has described how he's playing in these games I just dont think he has enough value in his c/r range so when he raises so small I think it'll pay a lot of weak made hands to call vs a pretty polarised range. OTT his range doesn't change AT ALL but your equity increases significantly. I guess the crux of my point is IMO the flop raise is too small and his range is too draw heavy for us to c/call the river because I believe a lot of different types of villains will get to the river with the hand played this way with more made hands than you're suggested, because of the flop sizing.

Also you'll agree that once our Hero checks the river his range has become capped almost to Ace high?

I just see a LOT of this type of play in live games, rightly or wrongly.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: cambridgealex on March 17, 2012, 07:37:02 PM
Very simply, if one player is getting the rights odds to hit a draw, the other player wants him to fold?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 17, 2012, 07:47:52 PM
Very simply, if one player is getting the rights odds to hit a draw, the other player wants him to fold?

Think of it like a pie.

You a your friend co-own a pie. Lets say it's an apple pie.

(http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/voracious/applepie1.jpg)

Now you're entitled to 65% of this pie and your friend is entitled to 35%, however because you dont live in the same house
you dont actually EAT 65% of the pie ever, you get to eat the whole pie 65% of the time and none of the pie 35% of the time. However because you are greedy on one time you decided to risk one of your turns to eat the pie so you could eat the pie on his turn once, therefore you'll actually be eating the pie MORE than 65% of the time, which is more pie than you are entitled to.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 17, 2012, 07:49:53 PM
apologies to stu for posting a picture of a pie ITT, I realise that must be very distracting from what, I believe, has been a very good poker discussion.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 17, 2012, 08:32:20 PM
apologies to stu for posting a picture of a pie ITT, I realise that must be very distracting from what, I believe, has been a very good poker discussion.


Lol... I thought we were friends!


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 17, 2012, 10:40:17 PM
(http://www.englishgraphic.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/friends-forever.gif)


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: pokerfan on March 18, 2012, 12:59:45 AM
I like pie.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: DMorgan on March 18, 2012, 02:00:57 AM
I understand that you're saying Stu and in most situations I'd agree with you but I think that shauns range to c/r flop smallish and bet this turn is way more polarised than in your example.

I just don't think that Sean peels pre with a J9o or a 54dd type hand and even when he does I think its even less likely that he c/raises the flop vs an uncapped range and especially not with this sizing. I'd probably go as far as to say that Sean has a hand with enough equity to bet/call the turn >80% of the time. A9dd-A3dd are the only hands that I can see him having that bet/fold but I'm still sceptical about Sean taking this line with those hands.

I'm not on my desktop so I don't have access to CardrunnersEV but obv if I'm right and Seans range is combo draws and sets then call/call is far better than jam turn in villains position.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 18, 2012, 07:56:23 AM
dan the lack of pie-related examples makes it hard to understand what you're saying


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 18, 2012, 08:26:02 AM
Dan, there are two separate lines of argument in what you have said in your last few posts. To avoid confusion I will state these:

1. Taking a call turn, call river line is often going to be the most +EV line for villain in this sort of spot.

2. It is pretty likely that villain is going to take a call turn, call river line with his made hands in this spot.

The above two points are obviously related, but are actually two separate questions. And in fact it is only number 2 that is directly relevant to this thread. Nevertheless I will discuss both points below. I hate always arguing with people whose game I highly respect and who I like as people too ... but I really think you are wrong in both these arguments:

1. Ok first line of argument - is it a good play for villain to call turn, call river with something like AA, KT or TT in this spot? I have never played with Sean and know nothing about his ranges or how he plays. If you are saying "Based on how he plays, Sean always has a draw in this spot, it doesn't even need to be a premium draw, and he always fires the river when he misses too" - well then call turn, call river is marginally the most +EV line for an opponent to take vs him; although actually it is still close due to the small SPR on the turn. This is not what you are saying, however - instead you are arguing that Sean is 'only semi-bluffing strong combo draws' on the flop. To be honest, this undermines your argument rather than supports it. This is because if hero's only draws on the turn are the super high equity ones (AdQd, AdJd, QdJd, Jd9d and so on) then by far the best line for villain is to jam the turn. I have actually made this point already, and it is not really especially close or difficult to understand since it is based on fact that the SPR is low and hero only needs 27% equity to call a jam. Basically, if villain jams hero will have to sigh-call, so villain can get all the money in now and get full value for his hand.

2. Are players ever likely to call turn, call river with strong made hands in this spot? The thing is, even if argument 1 above were true (it isn't), it would not really matter ... because almost no-one is ever going to actually play this way in game. Like I said, put yourself in villain's place, imagine you were playing the hand. On the turn you will notice that the pot is 740 and remaining stacks are only 400. You will also see the ridiculously wet board texture. There is no way you - or anyone else competent - will just flat the turn with a made hand that you wish to take to SD.

Which means that villain's range is VERY heavily weighted towards draws himself. Which means that if we did not have A-high we should jam the river to make him fold. Villain will simply never have enough made hands in his range and will fold super often. And which also means that, since in this hand we actually have the nuts no pair, we can likely check-call instead since we don't need to bluff out a better no pair hand, and so can try to make money from opponent's bluffs.


N.B. Re argument 1... I just want to note something else. If Sean's range for check-raising the turn really is only monster combo draws like AdQd/QdJd, and sets.... well villains should actually fold AA, AK etc to the flop check-raise. Sean would have 6 combos of sets (assuming he can never have KK here) and only a few combos of combo draws, so AA has terrible equity and terrible reverse implied odds to boot. Now I am not saying that anyone should actually make this fold in real life... I am just saying that if your assumptions about Sean's range are true then this is logically what villain should do. In practice hero will have a wider range than this unless he is a nit, for example he will have some weaker draws that he cannot check-call with so uses to bluff with. This isn't an important point, I am just saying...


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: DMorgan on March 18, 2012, 09:20:31 AM
I'd prefer to call it a discussion than an argument but I have definitely seen the light. As I said I'm not on my desktop so I can't run any calculations but I'll definitely be having a look at a few of the variables like how much bigger the SPR needs to be or how many bluff combos Hero needs to have and with what frequency he needs to fire river to make call/call > jam turn but from your enthusiasm for the topic I guess it's gunna need hero to be a complete lunatic and even all of the naked draw combos thrown in and a SPR of 1 OTR might not be enough!


I'm pretty sure my default play here was jam turn but consider calling, a few posts ago I muddled myself into definitely call/calling and now I'm definitely just jamming and being happy about it. Good job I didn't play yesterday!

Can you tell that I don't play many 3bet pots in position? Heads up ftw!

Are you gunna be punting at the ukipt?







Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: Honeybadger on March 18, 2012, 09:47:15 AM
Yes Dan. I will no doubt be contributing some dead money to the UKIPT prize fund. I have been putting in some serious live tournament volume this year... I have already played one this year! And if/when I enter the UKIPT in April that will be two tourneys in the first 4 months of 2012 - which makes me feel like a full on grinder considering I only played 3 live tourneys in the whole of 2011.



Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 18, 2012, 10:34:20 AM
Stu, is call flop/jam turn better than 3bet flop with AA/AK? Given all the assumptions we have made about Sean, given that on the turn the SPR is going to be that jamming will be our preferable move and the draws he c/r calls the flop with will all have enough equity to call, and we expect his c/r folding range otf to have reasonable equity?

I guess the crux of that argument is EXACTLY what he bluffs with OTF, and how he behaves OTT with this range.

A possible c/r bluffing range

AQs (1 if we have AA and 2 if we have AK) QJs (3) AJs (1 or 2) J9s exJ9dd (3) 97ss (1) 67dd (1) 56dd (1) JTs (3) 9Ts (3) 89s (3) 78s (3) (would actually be cool to hear people's thoughts about bluffing with these last three, I think these are really reeally good hands to bluff with, because you're equity is slightly better vs the mega draws, you have a set blocker and half decent equity, but OOP vs uncapped range it's a terrible range to be bluff catching with given how much equity his bluffing range has vs us) I would make that 25 combos, although I think he only bluffs these ~50% of the time and folds them the others (12)

Running turn equity Sim this range will have 25% equity (roughly what he'll need to make a break-even turn bet.call) 12% of the time

that his legit value raising combo's are slim (he has TT 88 KTs T8s) 11 combo's but I think he'd fold KTs and T8s preflop some % I could only guess but I'd say that would remove 2-3 combos. His "value" draws are AQ AJ QJ KQ KJ dd, J9 and Q9 are interesting, going to include those as 1 (would like your opinion on those hands as well actually!) (6)

So I make that a range of 12 bluff combo's and 14 raise call combo's so he's going fold 46% of the time to our fold 3bet. I did I shove equity calc on just straight up jamming (I know it sounds ridic)

(http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/SE1.png)

So it says we make 218 by just jamming right there and then - I can't imagine if this is actually accurate, I have no idea personally.

Interestingly I ran a few diff hands, AA(no diamond) was the worst hand to jam, AK with the Kd was the best. AK>AA here, but only just.

So I guess the fine point of it is the frequency with which he bet/folds the c/r-folding hands on the turn, if he doesn't consistently bet those hands OTT is raising the flop going to be a better play than call/jam, we deny him his equity (16% vs AA/AK) and the 12% of the time he can make a breakeven turn bet/call and we make money vs Sean's overall bet/call range providing our assumptions about his bluffs and value raises are correct?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: cambridgealex on March 18, 2012, 11:34:15 AM
Great discussion guys.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: rfgqqabc on March 18, 2012, 11:46:13 AM
Stu, is call flop/jam turn better than 3bet flop with AA/AK? Given all the assumptions we have made about Sean, given that on the turn the SPR is going to be that jamming will be our preferable move and the draws he c/r calls the flop with will all have enough equity to call, and we expect his c/r folding range otf to have reasonable equity?

I guess the crux of that argument is EXACTLY what he bluffs with OTF, and how he behaves OTT with this range.

A possible c/r bluffing range

AQs (1 if we have AA and 2 if we have AK) QJs (3) AJs (1 or 2) J9s exJ9dd (3) 97ss (1) 67dd (1) 56dd (1) JTs (3) 9Ts (3) 89s (3) 78s (3) (would actually be cool to hear people's thoughts about bluffing with these last three, I think these are really reeally good hands to bluff with, because you're equity is slightly better vs the mega draws, you have a set blocker and half decent equity, but OOP vs uncapped range it's a terrible range to be bluff catching with given how much equity his bluffing range has vs us) I would make that 25 combos, although I think he only bluffs these ~50% of the time and folds them the others (12)

Running turn equity Sim this range will have 25% equity (roughly what he'll need to make a break-even turn bet.call) 12% of the time

that his legit value raising combo's are slim (he has TT 88 KTs T8s) 11 combo's but I think he'd fold KTs and T8s preflop some % I could only guess but I'd say that would remove 2-3 combos. His "value" draws are AQ AJ QJ KQ KJ dd, J9 and Q9 are interesting, going to include those as 1 (would like your opinion on those hands as well actually!) (6)

So I make that a range of 12 bluff combo's and 14 raise call combo's so he's going fold 46% of the time to our fold 3bet. I did I shove equity calc on just straight up jamming (I know it sounds ridic)

(http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/SE1.png)

So it says we make 218 by just jamming right there and then - I can't imagine if this is actually accurate, I have no idea personally.

Interestingly I ran a few diff hands, AA(no diamond) was the worst hand to jam, AK with the Kd was the best. AK>AA here, but only just.

So I guess the fine point of it is the frequency with which he bet/folds the c/r-folding hands on the turn, if he doesn't consistently bet those hands OTT is raising the flop going to be a better play than call/jam, we deny him his equity (16% vs AA/AK) and the 12% of the time he can make a breakeven turn bet/call and we make money vs Sean's overall bet/call range providing our assumptions about his bluffs and value raises are correct?


All looked solid until i saw this!

Fantastic discussion guys, i just woke up and its taking a lot to go in, but I'm going to save this thread away and read it over and over


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: smashedagain on March 18, 2012, 11:47:31 AM
Lildave gets plenty of pie in Vegas. Both classic American apple pie and good old hairy pie. Mbsfn :)


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: outragous76 on March 18, 2012, 11:48:32 AM
Mm mmmmmmmm pie!

Er...... What was the question again?


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 18, 2012, 10:43:33 PM
Just to clarify following a PM from Stu - my post is a bit all over the place I'm not really evaluating anything, I'm sort of asking a few questions that have come to me ITT and throwing them at Stu hoping he'll pop another masterfully worded (geeky) GTO post out explaining some things :D I realise as well I was kind of asking a question then saying  "Is this the answer" but I was literally just typing a thought process as I had it and was focusing much on structuring the post that well hence why it's all a bit mumbo-jumbo

The questions I was offering were,

1) Do we think a flop 3bet from our villain is a better play than to flat and jam over a turn bet

2) Does the answer to this one hinge on what range Sean has that c/r-folds the flop, if he DOES have a c/r-fold range what hands would be best to do it with, I made some quick guesswork based on what hands I think I would bluff with here (or am I missing another point somewhere?)

3) How do we factor the equity we lose by allowing his flop bluffing range to see a turn card and the frequency which he bet/folds the same range OTT.

  -My instinct when I read the hand was that Sean SHOULD jam the river and that the villain SHOULD have jammed the turn.  Once the discussion started between dan and stu it seemed to stick out in my head that   villain should have (at least considered) 3betitng the flop, even though I would have initially instinctivley dismissed that for sure.

 -Gotta remember as well these discussions have become GTO based so we're ignoring all live "real poker" aspects here and just crunching numbers, frequency and ranges.

  -I actually think that Sean DOESN'T have a raise-fold range OTF (I actually doubt I would live as well tbh, although I'm sure people will think I would) which brings me to a point of...

5) how good you think these boards ARE to be c/r bluffing in spots like this, where we're called and called a 3bet. We have quite a thin value range and it hits the 3better pretty hard so if this ISNT a good board to be c/r bluffing, then is c/r the flop with THIS HAND actually a worse play than c/calling, and what other hands do you think we would chk/call? again a pretty thin range.

so, 5) Could this be a spot on this texture of board where we actally DONT have a c/call range. we just c/r of c/f? I can't actually thin of many made hands that would be great to c/c here.


This is basically the jumbled up thought processes I was having reading the posts. I havent used anything other than basic stove stuff as I, honestly, wouldn't know where to start.


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: titaniumbean on March 19, 2012, 05:53:51 PM
dan the lack of pie-related examples makes it hard to understand what you're saying





 Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt Ahrt


Title: Re: Should we empty the clip?
Post by: tight4better on March 19, 2012, 07:15:41 PM
Great discussion guys.

+1

However I was distracted by the presence of pie.