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Community Forums => Betting Tips and Sport Discussion => Topic started by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 03:14:46 PM



Title: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 03:14:46 PM
Does anyoby think Barca are a lay tonight at 1.78?

Now, I absolutely appreciate they are probably best domestic team ever assembled, Messi is god etc etc.  However, domestically they have failed to win 8/29 this season, they away record is P 14 W8 D5 L2 in La Liga

Critics will point to just one draw from 8 in this years Champions Leage, and the 3-2 victory in the San Siro. However AC have won five on the spin domestically, last dropped points were a draw with Juventus at end of February.  They did play terribly at Emirates, but they were delicious at home in the 4-0 victory and I just don't make the best team in Italy odds against with the draw.  Is there also a stat that until Barcelona won 3-2 there this year they have only lost at home to Man Utd in last 16 years or something silly in Champions league at San Siro?

I make Barcelona somehwere between 11/10 and 6/5.

HOWEVER, I could stop a train at the moment so before I wade in would appreciate some discussion from thr "pros" abd others.....Dazzler?



Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 03:23:23 PM
Jake in the thread.....give me a steer Golden Boy ;-) - Ps liked the blog....


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: FUN4FRASER on March 28, 2012, 03:28:12 PM
Way too short at 1.78


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 03:37:41 PM
Way too short at 1.78

So that means you agree its a lay Fraser, wont hold you too it obv but respect your opinion


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: WarBwastard on March 28, 2012, 03:43:45 PM
Does anyoby think Barca are a lay tonight at 1.78?

Now, I absolutely appreciate they are probably best domestic team ever assembled, Messi is god etc etc.  However, domestically they have failed to win 8/29 this season, they away record is P 14 W8 D5 L2 in La Liga

Critics will point to just one draw from 8 in this years Champions Leage, and the 3-2 victory in the San Siro. However AC have won five on the spin domestically, last dropped points were a draw with Juventus at end of February.  They did play terribly at Emirates, but they were delicious at home in the 4-0 victory and I just don't make the best team in Italy odds against with the draw.  Is there also a stat that until Barcelona won 3-2 there this year they have only lost at home to Man Utd in last 16 years or something silly in Champions league at San Siro?

I make Barcelona somehwere between 11/10 and 6/5.

HOWEVER, I could stop a train at the moment so before I wade in would appreciate some discussion from thr "pros" abd others.....Dazzler?



Arsenal were the first British team to beat AC Milan at the San Siro in 2008.  Beat them 2-0.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: TightEnd on March 28, 2012, 03:49:06 PM
Just another view

Might well be too short, but I couldn't lay Barca! No bet/avoid.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: mondatoo on March 28, 2012, 03:51:25 PM
Just another view

Might well be too short, but I couldn't lay Barca! No bet/avoid.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Horneris on March 28, 2012, 03:52:10 PM
I initially was a fan of AC to score 2 or more @ 11/4, thinking of the way they scored at will vs Arsenal, have scored 2 or more in the majority of home games this season and whilst Barcelona are amazing going forward, are sometimes vunerable at the back. This also gives you 2-2, 3-2 Barca etc.

Then I read this http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/3276/serie-a/2012/03/24/2988201/nesta-boateng-robinho-the-injured-players-ac-milan-need-to and I think I will leave it alone. About 10 players out injured, no Pato, Robinho is a gametime decision and lots of the likely starters are just coming back from injury which is far from ideal.

This explains Barca's price.

Leaving this match I think.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 03:55:50 PM
I initially was a fan of AC to score 2 or more @ 11/4, thinking of the way they scored at will vs Arsenal, have scored 2 or more in the majority of home games this season and whilst Barcelona are amazing going forward, are sometimes vunerable at the back. This also gives you 2-2, 3-2 Barca etc.

Then I read this http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/3276/serie-a/2012/03/24/2988201/nesta-boateng-robinho-the-injured-players-ac-milan-need-to and I think I will leave it alone. About 10 players out injured, no Pato, Robinho is a gametime decision and lots of the likely starters are just coming back from injury which is far from ideal.

This explains Barca's price.

Leaving this match I think.

Pro in the thread ty ty - I looked at team news and didnt get half of that.....Come on the Toon - how we feeling?  I am a lot happier with my Hacp bet as well now as with SJ so have a couple of points adv v Swansea / Man C

Also get Tighty Mondas sentiments - guess I'll watch the game and enjoy the class of Messi like everyone else

No bet it is


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 03:56:51 PM
Barca are 2.15 ave GD in their league, Milan 1.25 in theirs. If you simplify and remove form/league strengths, you get Barca 0.9 ahead, before home advantage. But then you need to move a great deal for Thiago Silva out, Nesta unfit, Boateng unfit, Robinho unfit, van Bommel suspended. After you move the price for all those players (easily 0.3 of a goal or so there), you end up pretty much at market price.

Tyty for posting - top man


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Horneris on March 28, 2012, 03:58:10 PM
Toon looking good now, if we don't collect from here it will be train tracks. Need Collocini to get back to fitness tho.



Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: mondatoo on March 28, 2012, 04:00:03 PM
Toon looking good now, if we don't collect from here it will be train tracks. Need Collocini to get back to fitness tho.



LOL, It's done if we win Sunday, LETS DO THIS!!!!!


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 04:19:14 PM
Toon looking good now, if we don't collect from here it will be train tracks. Need Collocini to get back to fitness tho.



LOL, It's done if we win Sunday, LETS DO THIS!!!!!

I am so shit at poker my Newcastle, RvP bets have taken on a new significance lololol


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: FUN4FRASER on March 28, 2012, 04:24:20 PM
Yes...definitely a lay at anything under 1.9



Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: horseplayer on March 28, 2012, 04:25:37 PM
the milan team news isnt very positive for a barca lay

prices about right imo


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Rivertony on March 28, 2012, 05:34:04 PM
Barca win 2-0 double messi obv


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Alverton on March 28, 2012, 06:25:54 PM
Messi is god.  
So;
Might well be too short, but I couldn't lay Barca! No bet/avoid.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: TheDazzler on March 28, 2012, 06:36:22 PM


HOWEVER, I could stop a train at the moment so before I wade in would appreciate some discussion from thr "pros" abd others.....Dazzler?



Lol, I'm very flattered by your mentioning me but I'm certainly not a pro. And I know nothing about any football bar the Prem. Good luck though if you bet.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Dubai on March 28, 2012, 07:07:05 PM
Barca are 2.15 ave GD in their league, Milan 1.25 in theirs. If you simplify and remove form/league strengths, you get Barca 0.9 ahead, before home advantage. But then you need to move a great deal for Thiago Silva out, Nesta unfit, Boateng unfit, Robinho unfit, van Bommel suspended. After you move the price for all those players (easily 0.3 of a goal or so there), you end up pretty much at market price.

Adnmdv in "football market is correct" shocker ;)



Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: paulhouk03 on March 28, 2012, 08:16:05 PM
boring draw imo


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 09:48:56 PM
Sigh


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: mondatoo on March 28, 2012, 09:55:42 PM
I really don't get the hype with Ibrahimovic, seen him play in the CL about 20x and only once or twice have I not thought he was terrible.

UL Shaun, Barca weren't at there best tnite.


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 09:57:08 PM
Fraser wins thread, I lose and run like shit lol


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Rivertony on March 28, 2012, 10:45:06 PM
Rubbish game


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: pleno1 on March 28, 2012, 10:55:57 PM
robinho is so shit, flair and not much final product, i know lolpads etc but ben arfa > robinho...

Im surprised barca kept a clean sheet. In the first half they were on borderline sucide watch with some of the way they were trying to play theirselves out of trouble.



Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: Killerkilsby on March 28, 2012, 10:56:18 PM
Confused thought you laid Barca?


Title: Re: Views Please - AC Milan v Barcelona
Post by: claypole on March 28, 2012, 11:34:29 PM
Confused thought you laid Barca?

Nah I was going to....was unsure of my judgement and asked for input.  Solid input, tbf was good re team news so I bottled my £500 lay. Fml