blonde poker forum

In the money, av stack around 30bb, MP2 has terrible OPR, has only limped and played very passive, stats around 30/3/0 over 130 hands. WWYD?

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000.00/t2000.00 Blinds - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos (http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_dc) Hand History Converter (http://www.handconverter.com)

BB: t56936.00       28.47 BBs
UTG: t77620.00       38.81 BBs
UTG+1: t52001.00       26.00 BBs
MP1: t23031.00       11.52 BBs
MP2: t58783.00       29.39 BBs
Hero (CO): t69942.00       34.97 BBs
BTN: t53582.00       26.79 BBs
SB: t123476.00       61.74 BBs

Pre Flop: (t3000) Hero is CO with A:heart: K:spade:
2 folds, MP1 raises to t22831, MP2 raises to t58583

The small stack makes this interesting

Looks like he is only raising his decent hands, 3% is obviously not that accurate over only 100 hands but using pokerstove it suggests that he is only raising with jj+ aks, so in theory here you should only call with aces and kings. If you extend it to raising with aqs and 10s as well then you have 50% equity against that range.

 Also the issue that he may just be trying to knock out the small stack and if he is not so good he may have gone in with worse hands.

I think if I was playing I would be pretty tempted to call, but looking afterwards it seems like it is not worth it.

Pokerstove knows the answer

Yes, but it's knowing how to put that question to it, any hints?

Thanks for the detailed response. Not sure how much the result matters but here it is.

I ended up folding the big stack had played so passively up to then I figured I was up against the very top of his range. He'd been the big stack for ages, and just limp called everything, and shown AJ+ kind of hand min. I did look at the stats too much maybe, turned out the short stack had  8c 8d and he had  Ad Jd. So seeing the cards, I'd have snapped,  should I let this alter my future decisions in similar spots, and look to call/reshove more? 

Never ever folding AK with 30bb effective.

Very much struggling to fold so much equity for a 70bb pot this deep.

not syaing id fold here, but this is definitely a wrong mentalityl

Well you work out your pot odds which will tell you how much equity you need to call here, then put AK up against the two ranges that you think they have and you'll find out if you have the equity to call or not

58783/58783+84614=0.4099

Your 43% even against Queens. Defining two shove ranges as precisely KK+ would be a pretty bad forecast.

You can fold, but it is negative ev to do so.

That's what i'm getting at really, in this instance with the previous 130+ hands (know this is not much) I had been to the players right, I put him on a narrow range, clearly you think I was wrong to do so this time, but are you saying it's wrong 100% of the time.

And with the other player in, ok their a short stack, but wouldn't this lower my equity?

Not folding. Even weak passive players show up with aq here and pretty sure that is all we need to be in their range as well as various pairs to make it an +ev call.

Not folding, or never folding in this spot? What would you need to see to make a fold in this spot?