blonde poker forum

as most of my friends dont understand the difference that i play poker and i am not a gambler i have been getting alot of requests about tips for the national. i have a clue about horses i normally say the national is a lottery and that they should go with what every takes there fancy but to try and avoid the favourite as the price on the favourite doesnt always offer value as alot of people pile on the favourite and the price is driven down below its true value.

i dont think ew betting is value in such a big field but its hard to explain to them why when they dont understand that getting the same % for 4th in a 16 horse race as a 40 horse race isnt the best
but these people want to have there once a year bet

so i am looking for some tips to offer them for ew betting, my normal is to pick a horse from the 12-1 to 33-1 in the market that they like the sound of and put a cpl of £ ew on it

has anyone got any advice i could give my friends or even a hot tip thats offering value

thanks in advance for all your expert tips i am sure i will recieve

VC offering 6 places though so a bit better value for e/w!!!

Also dunno if this is seen as spam but i'm not benefitting from it; if you dont have a stan james account and wants a free £5 with no deposit today or tomorrow then go to www.stanjames.com/record

Planet of Sound ... available between 25/1 and 40/1

look around as quite a few are giving first 5 places, if you can't do VC.

most of the people asking will be placing there bets in one of the 3 bookies on the high street in elgin rather than betting online
but i will recomend the online bookies

choices in elgin are ladbrookes WH and a north of scotland bookies scotsscoup (they normally use prices of leading chains for alot of bets)

Hope "they" do well.

i hate giving tips cause i am always to blame when they lose so i normally ask who they fancy and then reply with they have as good a chance as any

i havent bet on the national since hallo dandy won in the 80s and staying off it as i am in profit

Now that is Nitty!!!

Pick a horse that is carrying less than 11 stone.

I've backed Always Right earlier and took some more win only on Betdaq this afternoon. Had a wind Op after a couple of bad runs and hopefully that will help it run back to form, ground and trip fine, just need the usual bit of luck. Backed Killyglen as a saver.

gl all

A real shame that the biggest race of the season appeared to be decided by the new whip rules. The jock on Sunnyhillboy having seemingly used his quota as they were on the run in and the jock on the winner Neptune Collonges having enough hits left to hit the horse several times near the line.

Sick that the gold cup winner and at least one other died too, really darkens the event and even more ramifications about safety are bound to be the major talking points again.

surely any sane jockey takes the ban to win the national?

Thats what I am asking myself too mate. The jock on Sunnyhillboy stops hitting it, the jock on the winner has enough hits left to make the difference it seems.

In fact it seems to me that the winning jock has hit his horse 9 times after the last fence, the jock on the second didn't hit it once after the half furlong pole. I can't see how the winning jock doesn't get a ban for misuse of the whip. If he does he will prob get a week ban where the owner of the winner will prob put him up in a 5 star hotel in the Bahamas where he can rest and enjoy the memories of winning the National, the guy in the second will be annoyed he didn't just break the rules and hit it one more time, would prob have won if he had.

I might have counted em wrong as some might not have landed but it seems clear the jock on the second stopped hitting it, can only be because he ran out of hits as I can't think of any other reason he would stop.

Did anyone else think that On His Own was travelling like the most likely winner until it got distracted  by the loose horse just as it was about to jump Becher's for the second time or is that just me talking through my wallet?

I thought it was the most likely winner at that stage Ralph, I wasn't happy as it was a bogey for me. Might have got a bit lucky there but obv still a long way to go.

I agree with you that finish just didn't look right for a National.

I still don't get it but it might be me that doesn't understand. 9 or 10 whacks after the last and hitting the winner with no real time between some of the hits would have seen it fall foul of the whip rules but I might be wrong. I think they are now allowed 16 during the race too so he can't have hit it much before they jumped the last. On the second I can only imagine he has hit it around the allowed mark, I can't think of any other reason he wouldn't hit it again inside the last half furlong.

I reckon poor old Synchronised knew what he was doing when he unshipped McCoy and ran off before the start.

I have a feeling although I've not checked it that the last Gold Cup winner to contest the same year's National also perished, well the last one that I can remember, Borough Hill Lad.

You would also think that there should be a little extra leeway for an abnormally long run-in like Aintree too.

But Sunnyhillboy didn't appear to have been hard-ridden to get to the lead unless I missed some driving, it's possibly just a case of a young jockey not wanting to blot his copy-book having seen what has happened to others during the last daft few months of controversy and downright idiotic bans handed out.

SHB is a horse that needs a bit of jousting along and was pushed a bit earlier on in race so possible he had used whip earlier for sure but agree seemed not to push too hard late. 

On a slightly different note Sunnyhillboy is the unluckiest horse ever for me.  He was one of four tickets I had on my own in the last leg of a scoop6 at the paddy power meeting at Cheltenham when there was a £1m+  rollover a few years ago.  This year at Cheltenham I though I had backed him only to realise I hadn't put it on and I was on again today......win only.

Blimey mate, that's some run.

Borough Hill Lad never ran in the National.

I guess the horse you are thinking about is Alverton. Fell and died at Bechers.

I can think of three Gold Cup winners since Alverton who ran in the National.. Garrison Savannah, The Fellow and Master Oats. There may be more.

You're right Keith it was Alverton. Did those other three all run the same year as they won the GC?

MO and GS definitely were in the same year.

Not sure about The Fellow. Think so though.

I well remember it, as if it were yesterday. Think it was the last time I ever backed a horse in the GN.

A happier memory is Alverton - a very good animal indeed - winning the Gold Cup after Tied Cottage fell at the last. I was actually stood by that fence, inside the track, that day.

Here's that Gold Cup, with Alverton hacking up, & the golden voice of P O'S.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAxfhaccjOM

Wasn't syndicate trainer the jockey on alverton when it won gold cup and died in the national?

I remember that race well too.

I also remember being delighted when Tied Cottage came back the following year and did make all to win.