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Just played this hand...

PokerStars Hand #79073595725: Tournament #569010533, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2012/04/18 19:20:17 WET [2012/04/18 14:20:17 ET]
Table '569010533 22' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Crabbyyy (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: AAligator33 (3000 in chips)
Seat 3: bartman499 (6640 in chips)
Seat 4: fournz (6000 in chips)
Seat 5: lehout (5970 in chips)
Seat 6: superf1sh (5970 in chips)
Seat 7: Ultraballs18 (6030 in chips)
Seat 8: mr.thome (5880 in chips)
mr.thome: posts small blind 10
Crabbyyy: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ultraballs18 [Kd Kh]
AAligator33: folds
bartman499: folds
fournz: folds
lehout: folds
superf1sh: folds
Ultraballs18: raises 40 to 60
mr.thome: raises 130 to 190
Crabbyyy: folds
Ultraballs18: raises 150 to 340
AAligator33 re-buys and receives 3000 chips for $20.00
mr.thome: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [7h Kc 9c]
mr.thome: checks
Ultraballs18: bets 260
mr.thome: calls 260
*** TURN *** [7h Kc 9c] [6s]
mr.thome: checks
Ultraballs18: bets 800
mr.thome: calls 800
*** RIVER *** [7h Kc 9c 6s] [Th]
mr.thome: bets 1990
Ultraballs18 ??

No history with villain (who shows up as a winning mid stakes reg).

(1990/1990+2820) = 0.413

Need 41% equity

Stoved what I felt a good reg's range might be to flat a 4b oop this early then c/c, c/c, donk river on this board texture.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  96  games     0.000 secs    19,200  games/sec

Board: 7h Kc 9c 6s Th
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    75.000%     75.00%    00.00%                72            0.00   { KK }
Hand 1:    25.000%     25.00%    00.00%                24            0.00   { AA, TT-66, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, Ac8c, Kc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, AKo }


I mean mathematically it's a call I guess, but anybody folding here? Does he really ever donk without an 8?

Is my assigned range for villain way off here?

This is the range I had him on in my head at the time, river raise way too thin/spewy?

Feedback on the entire hand most welcome. thanks

wouldnt even be dreaming of folding in this spot

it wouldbt even cross my mind

I'm surprised to read hes a good winning reg after seeing this line, however i may be missing something. I feel like you can 4bet bigger pre. Your v.deep so maybe 440-490 is better.
 
In play i might shove the river, but looking at it now, and seeing his image, its probably a flat. I don't think 66 is in his range otr and 98cc is definantly not! QJcc?

Is this a 22 2r1a like i've presumed or just 22r. This would make a difference for me at lower stakes but not sure at midstakes.

Yes Ads it's the one rebuy one addon. Rebuy taken immediately obv.

I never said he was good, but he is a decent wiinner over a large sample.

I should maybe also add that HIS view of me after opr'ing me would be 'hellafish'.

My theory behind my action pre - Literally had opr'd him once he 3b (and realised he must be very decent), so I've small 4balled to induce some action from his light 3b's. He'll also peel a big chunk of his 3b range at this bet size, whereas he'll only peel a small part of it to a decent sized 4b.

Idk, maybe I should make the 4b bigger, as if he's decent he's prolly not going to get too ool this early.

4b bigger pre... never folding.

range you give him is wrong imo, he never has hands like aa here, in game i flick it in, but its probably a slight error, definitely not something to wry about though.

Completely agree with this, given everything about pre and how he's gotten to the river the range you've given seems way off. In game I almost certainly click call but it might be a mistake and I wouldn't be suprised to see 87s/98s a decent amount

his actual holding is fairly irrelevant

if he has a hand with an 8 in it he has played it terribly. The board however is terrible for the type of hand we are repping and he might just think we will fold

78s and 89s are not completely unreasonable here (not saying they're definitely good or bad but never terrible imo), flatting with them from the SB isn't great, they play well enough that they make ok hands to 3bet when you can't flat, its a smallish 4b so he might just decide they're deep enough he can get away with calling and post flop it seems pretty reasonable getting to the river like that

so are all the suited A's 77 99

Agree 4-bet bigger this deep.

{ AA, TT-66, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, Ac8c, Kc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, AKo } not close

QQ-77, AK, AQcc, AJcc, JQcc, 78cc, 89hh

.... can we rule out him flatting pre with JJ/QQ and turning it into a bluff here? Seems possible.

Shouldnt really be many 8x hands he shows up with except 88, 78cc or possibly 89hh, but i'm sure villain has managed it.

77 and 99 seem less likely pre as he can flat profitably rather than 3 betting and given that he check/raises the flop or turn a huge % of the time with these you could almost rule them out completely by the river, TT is a much more likely hand to see here

a terrible QJcc gets there?

I was pretty unsure about my initial response so its nice to see people agree. Results?

re the 4bet size, your 300 bigs deep, hes not going to fold unless you give him a reason to. This is the opposite of 100 bigs deep where we 4bet small to give him a reason to call and not fold.

He can't have played it that terribly if folding a set of kings here isn't even crossing your mind?

Agree with pads that its close, probably leaning towards folding though. He can feasibly have an eight and you can't so he'll do this as a bluff sometimes I guess if he's switched on/not playing too many tables.

Just in general your sizing on every street should be bigger too. Pre I wanna make it 600 at least - its a 22 cubed people will peel joke wide here. You have a good hand in a small/mid stakes MTT, just shovel some money in and you won't go wrong.

agree with more pre I'm going around 550 he made a big initial 3b fwiw. Bet more on flop please

Many thanks for your responses.

Really wish I'd stuck with my gut on this one and ignored the maths of the situation.

I think >99% of the time this bet just means he HAS IT.

Especially this early.

As an aside, I had a bit of an epiphany last night.

Sat on the bubble for quite some time in the $33cubed, subiime just crushed it. I knew the guy really and truly is OI, but just watching his play in front of my very own eyes really hit it home. The bubble bursts and soon after I run my aces into Kings and AQs for a huge pot on the last two tables and can't get there.

I've always been one to rue my own luck, but this beat was different. I'd normally be like 'fuuuuuu jokerstars, every f#king time!' and feel tilted for the next 20 mins. But not this time, this time I just thought 'meh'. Switched it off and went to sleep.

I think I'm finally Over It. It feels good.

These moments in poker are the nuts. I was sat at a table in the last MC with my best friend, and we had the pleasure to watch Ben Martin play some pokeys, he was fantastic and it just showed me that despite knowing 95% of the game, the 5% i don't know means absolutely everything

I agree with everybody saying you should be betting more throughout, esp pre and flop. So thing is if you're making it cheap and your image is hellafish it's difficult to put just an 8 in his hands. Easier fold after betting more imo.

4bet wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy bigger pre. folding now. by 4betting small you don't define his range as he is flatting 100% of his 3bet range. That's why i lean towards a fold on the river.