blonde poker forum

This may be pretty standard but I wasn't sure.

Mid way through day 1 of DTD Grandprix.   

Blinds are 300-600 + antes and I'm playing 34,000.

All folded round to me in the cut-off and I raise to 1600 with Qd 2d

BB calls playing about 27k

Flop Ts 7d 2c

I Cbet 2400 and BB calls

Turn is 5h

Check Check

River Qh ... i bet 5k

BB thinks for a minute and RR to 11k.

Now obv I'm not passing but is this a jam?   He's got  about 13 or so left behind. 

If I just call it leaves me with a playable 20k if im behind.... jamming the losing hand would effectively cripple me with 7k

Only info I had on the player was that he seemed observant/competent and hand not done anything stupid in the limited time I'd been at the table.

Thoughts and reasoning?

My first thoughts are dont raise with Q2 as we end up in horrible spots we maybe dont need to get in? If we do raise with Q2 keep the pot as small as possible.

Cbet a little smaller like 1800? Personally I probably check back this flop and bet turn if he checks.

I would of expected most of what beats us to bet the river after we check back the turn so his line seems weird.
I flat the river as I have driven over an hour to get there and dont want to do cripple my stack with Q2, end up jamming the next hand with ATC to then drive home cursing myself (terrible reasoning I know).

In game its close, but I think leans more to a fold.  What worse hands are they c-r the river with? Maybe 57s, can't see a set being played this way, most likely has q7, qT, hands which won't fold if you shove.  So if we think about the reason for shoving - in this case, it's for value - then I don't think we can get called by worse a considerable percent of the time.

The way that its been played, if you call, the only hand you'd really be beating is a busted straight draw/a weak 7 turning its hand into a bluff.  Obviously villain tendencies are key for this decision tho.  If he's the kind to think he's value raising with T7s (would probs raise flop?) or AQ, then its closer to a call.

defo more of a fold than a jam, that being said it's way closer to a call than anything else.

He's not really repping anything bar QT which he would bet the river with a decent %. You have a hand that is better than you're supposed to have. Click the call button and don't think too much of it.

Preflop is fine imo as long as you're not raising into super aggro/lunatic blinds.

I see zero merit in jamming. Our best hope on the river is that this is some kind of very weird bluff, or weird value bet with T7s or KQ or something. The rest of the time we're beat. He can't call a jam with his bluff, should fold KQ and shizz like that, so call cos I guess he's weirded out somehow enough of the time.

How much is our decision changed if villain c/jam to 24k rather than c/r to 11k?

Call quicker

I think it makes it a harder call personally, purely because his range stays similar and we get a way worse price

Smaller bet sizing pre and definitely smaller on the flop, if we bet it at all. Seems like a board that would connect some way with a lot of hands that would peel from the big blind in a £50 comp (98, JT, A7, 33-88 etc) Obviously we don't love giving a free turn card to overs and gutshots, but it's not like we want to generate a big pot with Q2 even though we feel like we might be value betting at this stage. There are only five good turn cards and none of them give us good implied. Bet turn if checked to you as a standard line I think.

On the river, see Dave's post. We're way ahead of our range on the river and only a very small % of his very small value range beats us, but realistically we're never getting called by worse and we're never getting him to fold better with a jam. Seems like a pretty standard call.

cheers... pretty much confirmed how I read it, although surpised some say fold paying 6k into a 24k pot on the end.

I called and he flipped 52 and saying he had me bang on AQ.

this is wrong imo.

Call, and it's not close. As others have said, folding is better than jamming.

dont think were gettin called by worse enough of the time to jusify a jam

It was more the mopping up the remaining chips given the pot to stack sizes that made me consider getting another 12k in on the already 30k pot.   Not a clue how anyone can favOur pass over call though

I'm very surprised that you don't even consider folding since I think it's a clear fold.

What hands do you think he's raising the river here with? I'm sure we can agree that he doesn't raise a one pair hand on the river, so what can he have? I don't think he check raises the river with T7 or Qx I think he's just going to bet with those hands. Usually when live player check raise dry boards they have sets, but obviously that's a generalisation.

It's either a spazzy bluff but most likely QT or TTT/777/222 and occasionally 555.

I guess he can be bluffing, but it's such a low % of the time that it's one of those situations where you just say in your head "sure, if you're bluffing then congratulations" and fold.

Open to criticism on this clearly very nitty approach to the hand.

Also, because it's a really uncoordinated board he has very few two pair combos which makes a set way more likely.

from my experience very few people check raise bluff EVER. I'm still not folding to a tiny CR because I'm stubborn. 

agreed reraising a river check raise would be suicidal unless we have a nut holding as people don't bluff here from my experience very often at all

Definately leaning more towards folding than pushing. Pretty villain dependent, you should be able to pick up kind of quickly if he's defending pretty much any 2 from the SB (weights our decision more to call as we beat more retarded combos he gets to the river with and prob bad enough to over-value hands), if he's spazzy (lean more towards call), if he's solid/tight/old/not retarded but not likely to be bluffing here (as honestly not many people do - then leaning way more towards fold)

Even QT is probably a flat unless the opponents bad enough to severely over-represent his hand in which case shoving for value would be a decent option.

So ye, my post didn't really help but it's kind of read dependent on who you're playing against!

defo a fold there, hez not raising worse than your hand imo