blonde poker forum

this one might be terrible, thoughts? i basically overbet turn to get him to fold an absolute bunch, on the river its impossible for him to have qd unless he has QQdx, Q10dd QJdd both of which he may fold pre/raise flop sometimes/raise turn soemtimes

my hand doesnt matter.

its scoop medium, 2800 left, 650 cash..

PokerStars Hand #80401430405: Tournament #2012050212, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (250/500) - 2012/05/14 0

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [x x]
GioPN: folds
spand42: folds
Hero: raises 500 to 1000
6CoolMakac: calls 1000
USIGN: folds
vovtroy: folds
meulman: folds
gato1218: folds
knerrad29: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 9d 3d]
Hero: bets 1500
6CoolMakac: calls 1500
*** TURN *** [5c 9d 3d] [Kd]
Hero: bets 10200
6CoolMakac: calls 10200
*** RIVER *** [5c 9d 3d Kd] [Ad]
Hero: bets 33866 and is all-in
6CoolMakac:

its 27k effective otr, pot is 26.5

theres 6200 in the middle on the turn i think.

What are you trying to represent on the turn and river?  Are you really overbetting pot on the turn with Qd Qx?  Guess you could have the nut flush on the turn, but when the river is the Ad, this line is just so polarising.  Maybe like a set turning itself into a bluff, the qd or complete air. 

Do you not think betting 3555 ott and then betting like 2/3 pot on the river is a much better line? When you bet so big on the turn, he's surely only gonna continue with real good hands? But if you bet smaller ott and make a standard/slightly bigger river better, your line is much more credible imo.  Seems spewy at this stage of the tourney, and with the line you've taken, I doubt they're folding a medium sized diamond often.  You say it's impossible for him to have Qd otr, but how often do you have it with this line? If he believes you only have it a small % of the time, then he's gonna call with a Jd or  Td I'd imagine, and if he's turned like an 8 high flush, I still think he's calling.

Interesting to see what others think

I don't think it's terrible but you're going to get called here a lot more than you think by a lot more Diamonds than is optimal.  Done this stuff myself on these large runner Stars Tourneys and been called by stuff like Td 9.  I think I need to know a lot more about the villain to run this.  Not a ton of history, just the basic 'is tight/loose,' 'peels lots/rarely,' and shows down the goods/crap.  A lot of Stars players are going to look at your line and level themselves into saying it looks like utter desperation, then call with their one shiny diamond regardless of rank.

How they get to the river with that diamond after you bomb the turn I'm not sure, but forget the thought that this guy is playing optimally, looks like a serial non believer to me.

clearly your hand matters, I would not play QJdd this way

im bluffing, no diamond. no strong showdown hand.

Don't think he can fold any decent diamond in this spot otr. You rep nothing but an airball. Turn line is pretty sweet in a way but hard to balance. This is the nut low diamond river to do anything on.

Talked about this hand a fair bit and I think I'd end up giving up river. I just think that once he calls turn with pot back he has too many made flushes and flush draws to make firing this river profitable. I don't think he's folding the  Td here or many other diamonds really once he's made the call on the turn.

I would fire turn pretty big but not an overbet - intending to fire most non-diamond rivers but this one I just give up on. I think he has a lot more flush and FD combos on the turn than marginal made hands that will fold river. I don't know if thats good or not though.

your hand could easily look like  45dd/78dd (or similar low diamond)

the problem is, if you have been playing anything other than supernit, then your line doesnt work.

Thanks for responses all.

He's a normal std guy who stated in playing tightish. An definitely not ool, could sonebody assign a flop, turn and river calling ranges?

How frequently have you been opening/ 3b'ing. I dont want stats I want perception. Much history with this particular villain?

He hadn't played a pot with me but in being active, opening a bunch and 3bettog the most on the tble, but not like hugely benny spindler ool atm

Agree with Mike here. When you bomb the turn, bombing river as well doesn't make sense with a lot of hands. Obviously fine in environments where we can regain balance later or we have a ton of history already, but versus someone we don't have stats/solid reads on this line feels like it will fail a ton. The problem is your hands looks like a bluff, so this would be a sick line if we had it versus someone who will likely level themselves. If we make a standard vbet on the turn and bomb the river, it looks way more like you made it. This might not be what you do with the goods, but it's what your average reg will think "fish always bet/bet/bomb when they get there ffs fold." Also, if we're giving villain too much credit here and he's just a bit mental, then his call turn/fold river range on this runout is pretty much non existant, especially after we overbet the turn. Love your ideas pat, but this one needs to go back to the drawing board imo.