blonde poker forum

A friend of mine wanted me to post this and ask whether there is ever an argument for folding here? Seems really bad IMO but just thought i'd ask!

BTN/SB: $116.22
Hero (BB): $96.89

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J A
BTN/SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) A Q Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.00) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($15.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $100

Calling all day !

More importantly, why are we not 3-betting pre? Or, put simpler... 3-BET PRE!

Losing to just 1 combo of AA and 1 combo of QQ.... call.

5 aces deck?

yh and call

Flat pre as a std is definitely fine and not a jig issue, villain dependant theres lots of circumstances where we should 100% 3bet and lots of cases where we should flat

it's gotta be standard to 3bet, and then if there's a good reason to flat then adjust?

why has it got to be standard to 3bet? we know nothing about his calling frequencies and generally people start tighter than looser so can expect them to fold a9 and worse, I would fold a9 100% to a 3bet vs unknown.

surely this is a pretty simple fold?

hes already going to fold a bunch of jacks that we dominate that he opens.

it also gives us a stronger range on lots of flops and we can credibly rep good showdown hands etc later.


i dont see too many merits in 3betting aj, he may also use hands liek qj, kj, j9 as 4bet bluffs.

and ofc use his bad/marginal aces as 4b bluffs too and if we do get it in vs his range (3b/folding aj may make some people sad) then we are in terrible, terrible shape.

We lose to one hand combo Dave? One, I mean, what are the chances? How do you warrant a fold? Especially HU. It's only one bullet, we don't even have a tournie life to risk?

Is this a level or do I need to quit poker?

absolutely not a level.

$88.90 to win $192.80 = 88.90/192.80 = 0.46 so we need to win 46% of the time, and trust me we win like >1% of the time. I could see you clicking the call btn here 300 times before getting shown a bluff, the reason no-one bluffs here is because it's SO likely you have an ACE, and very unlikely you will fold it should you do. When people are bluffing here, they are bluffing with an ace, trying to make you fold an ACE also. 

Let's not forget as well, the jam makes QQ more likely because if he has both other queens, and neither of the 2 aces, then it makes it VERY likely with how the hand has played that you do have an ACE. If he had an ACE himself, he'd bet smaller some % of the time to ensure that a Q (more likely you have a queen when he has an ACE albeit negated slightly be the flop and turn action) calls.


So we dont win anywhere near 46% of the time, we actually win close to 0% of the time and despite getting our money back a large amount of the time, getting our money back = a $7.50 profit and if you wanna risk $88.90 for $7.50 knowing that you pretty much never win more, and can sometimes lose $88.90 then even the most ambitious figures in the world couldn't show you a profit of more than $1-$2 on the call. If you are going to play 3,000,000 hands of HU over the next 25 years then by all means embrace variance and lock a couple of $s up, but I don't need the risk in my life lol

yeh for the river, i probably fold too.

risking $89 to win $7.50 so there must be about 12x more combos of Ax than QQ, which there obviously is.

Would you also consider the rake in your calculations as a reason for folding Dave?

1) not to win 7.50 because of rake

2) he has more combos of Ax that get to the river, but it doesn't mean he plays them like this on the river

but there's like 45 combos of Ax and 1 of QQ. Even if he plays only half of them like this it's still a nobrainer call.

as a standard people jam this river less than 1% of the time, so we cant give him 45 combos.

its not even close to being a nobrainer call imo, I think my exact response to this would be to go "lol, ok" shake my head a little and click the fold btn without much thought at all.

I always get slammed for making these points but there is mental affects of the HU game to consider, its HU so people HnR/lock up all the time, you give your oppo the momentum, you put yourself under additional pressure being the first to lose a buyin etc, risking all this for a long term profit of like $1? Seems pretty pointless to me.

throwing away the odd bit of immediate EV in a bid to stay on top of the battle mentally is a very important part of HU play.

yep.

agree

I often find that players shove here with qx but maybe that's just at micro.levels

why would they ever shove qx ? :S

I mean if we find ourself vs someone who has a 7x pot jam here with Qx in him then we defo wanna be calling :D

You thinking tournaments Iron? Defo different as the stacks are way shallower/people tend to click buttons way more randomly in MTT's than Cash (as a general rule)

I agree, hence my "is this a level comment".

Down in the micros you've got "the next Phil Ivey" trying to bluff you off the pot with 5 high 99% of the time and showing up with QQ <1% of the time - I think in this situation the stakes become quite an important factor for the most part.

Well if you think he's bluffing/has a Q then click that middle button!

If we fold here we lose through reciprocality though, because we wouldn't play ace x this way. Or does it not matter here cos its such a rare spot. If we were playing this guy for 50k hands and this hand is 689th do we fold?

It would depend how he had been playing for the previous 688 hands.

Standard fold unless he's show that he's capable of spazzing around imo.

Is the following theoretical statement true?...

'he needs to be bluffing more than X% for us to call'

Where X is the percentage of QQ combos (one) he has in relation to every other combination of hand he gets to the river with. (which incidentally for this specific hand, I feel is wider than simply Ax as its difficult to find case cards, and in a thinking players mind that river makes the probability of us actually having Ax having check called twice all the more unlikely, therefore its a decent card to bluff)

I totally get the momentum thing in a HU battle and understand that its a fold even though mathematics says differently, but curious to see if people think this statement has any validity. Ta