blonde poker forum

Sup blondeland,

I'm selling for the WSOP $10k Heads Up event. As most of you know HUsngs are pretty much all I play online outside WCOOP/SCOOP etc. I sit the $200, $350 and $500 buyin levels and am a well respected reg on the network.

Why do I think that selling at 1.18 is good value for investors?

The Field

This event was a $25k last year and it sold out getting 256 runners so I think its reasonable to expect that this event will fill to the cap of 512 players given that this year online poker isn't still reeling from Black Friday and general liquidity in the poker economy is more favourable than it was. I think the field can be broken down into a few main groups.

High stakes MTT players - I think these will make up the majority of the field and a ton of high stakes MTTers are going to flick in for this event because its so early in the series and the Player of the Year race is consequently wide open. These population tendency of these players is to have massive fancy play syndrome and just generally try and barrel their way to victory. Obviously this isn't the case for all of them and there are some legit sickos that I would for sure be an underdog against but I play against over-aggro styles at these stack depths every day. Given than these players will make up most of the field and I rate to be a small winner against the vast majority of them, I think that 1.18 markup is justified.

High stakes heads up cash players - The structure of the event is reasonably shallow as explained bellow which really favours the SNG players. I've played over 200k hands this year of 75bb or less HUNL and have spent a lot of time working on my <25bb game too which I think gives me enough of an edge at 1.18 given that they will make up a resonable %age of the field.

'Name' pros - Sponsored pros and guys that have had media exposure I'd expect to be out in force for this event since its considered a reasonably prestigious one on the schedule. I've just got so much more experience in this format than almost all of these players and am therefore good value at 1.18 imo.

High stakes HUSNG players - These are the guys that I rate to be an underdog against but I talk to most of the $1k+ HUSNG regs on stars in a group chat every day, I know who they are and most of them are not playing this event. It makes no sense for them to travel to Vegas where they can't play online to play one event. For the most part that have no interest at all in playing the other formats and are staying away until the main. This won't be the case for all of them but I think that they will make up such a small %age of the field that being an underdog to them does not have a significantly negative impact on the value of this event at 1.18 to make it a bad investment.

Fish - Fish are fish and they do exist even at the highest levels. Its not uncommon to see people ping big MTT scores and do the money off playing high stakes HUsngs. The absolute lovers of the game will be in Vegas and if you've got money to burn, why not flick it in for the 10k heads up? Obviously going to be a very small %age of the field but the fact that its possible to draw an opponent that you're going to have a 60% or maybe even higher winrate against is a pretty big positive imo.

The Structure

I think the structure of this tournament really suits my HUsng experience, you get 3x 10k chip bullets (or 30k to start, strategy is opponent dependant) starting at 100/200 so most of the play will be at stack depths that I'm more than comfortable with as HUsngs start 75bbs deep.

My Experience

I have produced a guest coach video for the biggest heads up SNG training site (husng.com) under my ipoker name CaptainCalldown1 which was well received. I have attended boot camps run by Pistons87 (5k husng reg and 10k WCOOP hu winner) and HokieGreg (big winner on stars pre black friday and merge currently) who are both very well respected HUsng players and have been winning at the highest stakes games for a long time. I have also had 1-on-1 coaching with both of these players which has improved the quality of my thought processes immensely and this has shown especially this year. My winrate right now at HUsngs is the highest it has ever been. I've also won a 1k heads up UKIPT side event for what its worth, but it only had 8 runners :D


I fly to Vegas on the 30th so will have plenty of time to adjust sleeping patterns etc. before the event to be fresh on the 5th and will definitely be playing the event regardless of how much sells.

Payment accepted by Stars, bank transfer or cash in vegas if you are there before the event. I'll PM bank details to buyers.

Selling 75% at 1.18 locked to todays XE rate of 0.636

1% = $118/£75.05
2% = $236/£150.10
5% = $590/£350.25

Thanks for reading, gl us!

Flame away

The Team

pleno1 - 4% PAID
Tikay - 2% PAID
Titty - 2% PAID
scotty77 - 2% PAID
bobby1 - 4% PAID
geordieneil - 2% PAID
LFmagic - 2% PAID
TonyJ - 2% PAID
Ben Martin - 5% (cash in vegas)
Paul Jackson 5% PAID
sanderzbaby01 - 2% PAID
Julian Thew - 2% PAID
lildave - 5% PAID
MC - 1% PAID
The Camel - 1% PAID
Fraser - 10% PAID
Junior - 1% PAID
Guy - 2% PAID
Gakn29 - 2% PAID
David L'Honore - 1% (Cash In Vegas)
F3nix35 - 2% PAID
Nirvana - 1.5% PAID
The Baron - 1% PAID
Alverton - 1% PAID
Ceri Rees - 2% PAID
pokerfan 1% PAID
Dave Burn - 8.5% (Cash In Vegas)
Tom Moitie - 1%

SOLD OUT

4

booked

Do you play HU SNGs on Stars?

If so, username?

I don't play on stars and my ipoker username is CaptainCalldown1 but its blocked - will upload HEM graph for the year to date

2% please Dan.

Will need your Bank Details, please. 

I am interested in a buying a piece but I do think 1.18 is a pretty high mark up for this event.

Although there are definitely some weak spots, there is also every top HU player in the world.

If it was part of a package, maybe you could justify it.

As it is, think 1.18 is just too high.

GL though.

HEM graph:

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/7193/49795149.png

2 percentiles please.


cash in vegas to be added/subtracted from any slate still running.

Thats fair enough - of course I agree that it isn't the big value that some of the other vegas sales have been. I obviously don't expect Flushy/Keys etc. to come and 'rest' it and that is part of the reason why the published numbers don't go above 5%. Its much closer to a 'bit of a spin' than other possible investments but I do have extensive experience in an almost identical format.

I've been toying with the idea of playing since the WSOP schedule was released and I asked a few people for their opinions on the proposal before I posted it and had good feedback so decided to go ahead and post it. It is the only tournament that I'm going to be playing this year outside the main and I'm absolutely psyched for it now that I'm definitely playing. If it doesn't sell out then so be it, I'll take the rest of the action on my own.

We've had a few gripes over the last week but I'm sure we'll run into each other in Vegas and I hope we manage to get some pints in at some point. If the HU sng community ever got wind that I had beef with The Camel I might be in big trouble ;)

booked, cash in vegas is good. Shockingly, there is no slate!

If you put this in a package with the WSOP Main Event @ 1.18 I bet you'll snap sell out ;)

I hope you and the other people I had disagreements with (Keys, Dave and most especially Bram) realise it was absolutely nothing personal. I was talking purely from a business point of view.

I like buying action, especially in tournaments I am not going to be play, but I wouldn't buy action in a package with that caveat. So I was trying to persuade future horses not to include it! :)

It all got a bit personal and nasty and that was a shame. Discussions like that should always be businesslike and then everyone gains from them.

Good luck in Vegas and I'm looking forward to that drink already!

2pc please.  stars?

booked and Stars is fine, Raziel2689. Avatar of a llama eating a child.

Actually its a camel eating a child, a picture that was stolen from Tom's thread of amusing images but now that we've made up I don't want to post on a public forum that I have a picture of The Camel eating a child :D

I didn't think we had a disagreement Keith. We had different opinions which we stated and that was that as far as I recall. Other people 'had a disagreement' with me, but we're ok...

I will have 4% please Dan

will send on Stars when you confirm.

Thanks, and good luck.

Booked

So much love ITT already

Raziel2689 on stars, cheers!

nice bluff fishy

sent mate, will pm the details.

cheers and good luck

Received, ty

2 percentiles please

booked, indifferent between stars and bank xfer so up to you

cheers

2% reserved for TonyJ and LFmagic

Ben Martin 2%

Paul Jackson 5%

prob bank better, having probs depositing on stars at the mo....not sure if online gaming sites are legal over here.....emailed stars so should find out in 2014 :)

pm details

when u need it for?

hey dan, 2% pls,
will ship on stars in a mo

PM sent

Booked and received, tyty

+1 I actually ended up agreeing with you moreandmore by the end of that.

I'll obv take a piece as your my boy even if my lawyer thinks your grimming me on the MU :D

i'll take 5% and we'll put it on our tab yh?

lol yeah booked, I have no idea what the tab is now though. I owe you $550 for the 10k plo and you claim to owe me something but I don't know how much or what it would have been for lol.

So by my reckoning we're both booked and paid and you owe me whatever this mystery amount is minus $40

Deal or no deal? :D

DON'T SWAP THE BOX MET

swap your box in a minute met if you don't stop trolling :D

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_XS8Idlv9Kd4/TPacDgxHw_I/AAAAAAAAAc4/OzgoSKAb-UU/s1600/Troll.jpg)

I'll take 1% then you don't need to pay me for the SCOOP main last week :P

Booked and received ty

 ;whistle;

Go on then.

I'll take 1% purely so I can see this avatar on Stars :)

  5 Please Dan ........  Shipped On Stars

  Good Luck

Booked, ty

Booked a received, tyty

Received a transfer on stars for 2% from 'moonshine' but no PM or post to confirm who is it. Give me a shout please so I can update OP :)

Mr Thew I believe.

Julian is moonrise on Stars

Yep good shout, received.

Got a good Karma feeling for you in this so going to have another 5    Shipped

Fraser has the faith!

You did the maths and worked out that if it hits the cap theres gunna be about $1.2 million up top didn't you? :P

Booked and received, double gl us!

How many rounds will you have to win before being in the money Dan?

Assuming it hits the cap at 512 players it'd be three wins to cash

Thats right... Im looking at it in a different way to Keith and think it is a value tournament with 3 wins to cash

Pretty sure it will sell out so a 120k bink for me please   :)

1% please

Please pm bank details

Ta

OP updated with a better explanation of why I think this is good value for investors

Also for those that might be thinking of holding off for a few days anticipating a fire sale on the last pieces just before the event, dream on :P

Booked and PM sent, ty

1.18 really? Gonna be sick tough field. If it sells out il sell whatever u want at evens as a gamble. Nice kid but obv ridiculous price

Did you read the OP? I've obviously taken the time to research this and I do believe that for the stated reasons it is worth investing. It is not at all in my interest to try and rip off a board that I'm an active member of and plan to continue to be a part of.

The fact that the gut reaction of a lot of the regular bigger investors of the board was that it is ridiculous did not come as a shock to me.

I really like you so il just bite my tongue but ok.

Actually, with it being a heads up comp, if the prize structure is known it would be trivially easy to work out your precise ROI for a given win %. Can understand if the investors would rather not know though.

Lol. Now Dan is getting flamed for a slight mark up.

Wtf is going on round here? Do you not take into account the goodwill that some of the members of blonde have on here.

Can't wait till I put up my first staking thread asking for 2.0.  :)

I definitely believe Dan is +ev in this. I would have probably bought even slightly higher, his edge in 10-75bb stacks is going to be so so huge and alot more than the pros edge at 100bb+ where Dan can definitely hold his edge too.

@Dubai I'm sure that Dan wouldn't mind you saying exactly what you think he would do likewise on any other thread and would prefer to reply back to you and put his argument up rather than someone basically telling him (and investors) your not +ev but im not going to say why

I played 3k hu today and was joking around quoting my edge at some ridiculous number but in reality the field was decent , the old cowboys just don't buyin to these comps. The fact you argue a sng player has an edge seems silly to me, il take any decent poker player over any sng player in the world even at this format. Id be surprised if most of these sng pigeons were even break even in the field let alone value, (that has nothing to do with Dan)

Obviously I'm stick my money where mouth is, so any bets people want is fine but I dont wanna antifunk Dan, so obv involving other sng piegeons

Wouldn't you need the EV of the other players in the field to do this?

I'll take this if you give me 6/5.

I mean, I've got a very small player pool to pick from, you have the rest.

pm sent dan, let me know asap.....cheers and gl

No. It's a binomial, if Dan just suggest what he expects his win % to be in an average match in this tournament, you can extrapolate how often he finishes in each position. Multiply p (the probability of each finishing position) by P (the prize money for that position), add them all together and you have his expected return. The only assumption is the average win % which Dan will provide.

Just had word from the blondie one that he will back me as a gaurantor (tikay) if I can't kick some Singaporean butt in time, please be patient it will arrive but this is Singapore and they like to do things differefent

cut n paste from over ther border but same issues

sort of wish it was hong kong so i could kick off, but singaporeans are sooooooo foooookin polite (irritatingly nice)


bear with me, if u feel the need to free up i can understand, but i know ur gonna bink so it will pee me off a little :D

Genuine question with no hidden agenda and i have no alliances here but...

i am interested in what you hope to achieve by asking this question? And in making this statement in the thread. You can obviously say what you feel as its an open forum but just interested to understand the motivation behind it.

Thanks

Waitlist me for 5% at evens when this sells out plz dubai

Edit: misread junior's post

Shipped.

gl

All very correct, but not sure if you have made the best choice of person to provide the independent estimate of the win percentage.

I expect it is spurious accuracy to factor in tougher average opponents as you go through each round, but should be easy enough on a spreadsheet. 

More importantly, how well does Dan flip, given the possibility of the first round bye? 

Are you coming out for the main? Would happily have this discussion but there would need to be alcohol involved cos its pretty dull.

Implying that being a SNG player and being a good player are mutually exclusive is pretty lol though. If we were talking about 9max turbos where nobody beats the rake then I'd agree with you, but we're not.

Received, ty

weird..

+1 to this

I mean this would include Serkules and Moca Choca which is obv ridic

FYP :P

<3

fml getting pretty hungry over here

2% for Gakn29


22 left

David L'Honore 1%

21% left

PLO one?

Hero

Shipped. Good luck!

Yeh the cardrunners instructor

Received, ty

sigh, so looks like you can only deposit X$ per month on line from my card. I'll ring them up but its bank holiday weekend.

#thegrimcontinues

F3nix35 2%

19% left

1.5% please. Would like to send by bank so please send me details and £ amount you're happy with

#newmonthnewlimitsamirite?

Booked and PM sent, tyty

Paid by Bank TX, apologies for the delay.

Hope you enjoy the event, & run well.

1% pls

Booked and PM sent

Received from nirvana

I'm going to be regging up for this today - 13.5% left but I'll just take whatever doesn't go before Tuesday.

1%, can you pm bank details please

Booked

Received, ty

12.5 left

This is tomorrow, I think, so a quick "good luck" Dan, & if anyone still fancies some action, hurry up!

Dan.

I've had a PM from blonde "welsh1980", who is Ceri Rees.

He wants to purchase 2% of you, & told me he will ship the cash to you via 'Stars.

He is unable to post on the Staking Threads, insufficient Posts.

Message duly passed on......

Ill vouch for Ceri

1% Stars, sn ?

Both booked, Raziel2689 on Stars. Avatar of a camel eating a child.

ty

Gunna be closing this  at 5pm GMT tomorrow


PMd those that I haven't received the $$ from yet

Sent, gl !

received on stars from both, ty

All the best, go win me a new kitchen!

sent

2nd lot sent on stars mate - book me up and ship the lot!

glgl

Received fro Guy and pleno, tyty

Regged up, only 86 in so far but expect there to be quite a few more regging tomorrow

you on twitter mate?

Yeah @DanMorgan26 but the only breaks are in between rounds and they're pretty strict on phones at the table

thats cools

Ill be asleep but like to catch up with stuff

and we are sooooooold out

Good luck Dan

Paging Dave 'Dubai' Shallow...

Never miss an opportunity for spamage

www.ljwcarpenterandjoiner.co.uk

gogogogogogogo

issac haxton first game lol

OK, Im sure someone said we had to beat the best in the world to win this

Well............................ we drew Issac Haxton round 1

#gottabeatthebesttowinthisshit

75pc got bye

draw rigged IMO

lost 99 v kqdd aip

I read that as 1 bullet.

yh me too

yeh 1st of 3 bullets but maybe he uses both of the next ones together.

I would deffo.

$371k ftw.

Daniel Morgan‏@DanMorgan26

Ike leads 37k to 23k at 1k/2k. Had pretty much zero hands but still alive. #survivor #wsop

guess that means all the bullets are in play?

yer, 3 10ks each, dan can play perfectly from here as can ike obv.

Looks like he def had him in pain at times

(http://i371.photobucket.com/albums/oo151/outragous76/ike.png)

(pic courtesy of poker news)

Induce a massive spaz, min A9o playing 15 bigs, cbet one chip more than a minbet he piles Q6o on A22. Now lead 38k to 22k.

sounds awful from him?!

Gg

Sighhhh, ul Dan.

"Good game man, you played well," Haxton complimented his opponent who said, "Cheers man," as he walked away.

Read more: http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2012-world-series-of-poker/event-12-heads-up-no-limit-hold-em/

Trip report coming.

Not even remotely tilted, I played the best game of my life but unfortunately the universe was against us. Some really fun hands, should be good.

Now to the gory details...

There were far fewer runners than expected, it ended up that 75% of the field got a bye through round 1 but we did not manage to fade a match and instead get drawn against Isaac Haxton. For those not familiar with the name he has $4m in tournament winnings, big winner at nosebleed HU cash and $5k HUSNGs. Basically besides Isildur he's the nut worst person to draw.

Ike snap takes one of his two rebuys so start with 20k at 100/200, started asking me questions about how I was going to play the rebuys in a general attempt get me to top up to 100bbs. Like I said in the OP, 50bbs is absolutely my comfort zone whereas 100bbs is not, so I stick with 10k leaving 50bb effective stacks.

Hands 1 and 2 were both open, 3bet, fold. Hand 3 I find 99, 4bet/call and lose the flip vs KQdd to go down 2:1 right off the bat.

Right from the off Ike was playing pretty much 100% of hands OOP with a 3b%age of over 50%. I really didn't want to play into that and start getting put in a blender OOP with a wide preflop range in 3bet pots so I was a little less aggro pre, but got a lot of double barrels through when I did 3bet and I think he was giving my ranges a little too much credit, so the plan was to really open it up until he adjusted by playing back more in 3bet pots. He didn't really start playing back that much and I grinded back up to 14k when this pot goes down:

Hero (14,000)
Ike (16,000)

Blinds 200/400

Ike opens to 800, Hero calls with  Kd 7c

Flop (1600)

 Jc 6c 5s

Hero checks, Ike checks

Turn (1600)

 Ad

Hero checks, Ike bets 900, Hero raises to 2700, Ike calls

River (7000)

 8h

Hero is all-in for 10500, Ike tanks and folds.

That along with a 3bet and double barrel with KJ on AQ58 got me into the lead with 23k chips and one rebuy left - Ike with 27k and no more rebuys. Then we play a big hand that I don't remember betsize of but I min A9o on the button, he peels flop is 942r he c/calls, turn Q he c/calls again river T I check back and he shows 94o for a pretty  funky peel and flopped top 2 so I take my last rebuy which has us pretty much even.

Next big hand he opens I 3bet  6s 4s which is pretty thin since he was peeling my 3bets a reasonable amount. I cbet the Ahrt Kd 9c flop he calls, we check down 8 turn 8 river and he shows  Qs Qc.

Then a really strange spot comes up. I peel 9To playing 22 bigs to a minraise at 400/800, flop  5d 6d 9s and I c/raise his 1600 cbet to 4300, he asks how much it is but I for some reason was sure that he said all in. I say call after a few seconds and everyone looks a bit bemused. After a little while he decides to call. Turn is a Q and I bet 4200, he tanks for ages and folds.

Blinds up to 600/1200 and I have 15 bigs, open  Aspades 9h to 2400 he calls. Flop  Ac 2c 2s I cbet 1300 into 4800 and he puts me in with the old Q6o to put me back in the lead 3:1.

Ike is down to 15bbs now. I jam over a min with 44 and lose a flip for the win vs KQo and we're back to even stacks.

A bit of back and forth with Ike limping a lot - I found a coulple of broadway hands and had him limp/folding a lot playing effective stacks of 25 bigs.

Blinds up again to 800/1600 and I make a standard raise/call for 19bbs w/K9o and can't get there vs ATo with exactly even stacks to start the hand.

It was a bit of an epic - the match went on for nearly 3 hours and like I said after going down 2:1 on the third hand I had the momentum for most of the rest of the way. He said afterwards that he thought I played well which bodes well for the future from a legit sicko! The cynics will probably say that he'd tell everyone that but I'm in no doubt that it was sincere and while its a little disappointing to have so much go against me I'm very happy with the decisions that I made and am absolutely certain that I'm +EV in this tournament.

Can't wait till next year now!

Thanks for everyones support. It sucks that on the face of it the sceptics will be able to say 'I told you so' but on balance I think we all got our money in good.

Great report Dan, thank you.

Did losing that first bullet so quickly bother you mentally? It does not look like it did, but it must have stung a bit.

Seems to me you gave as good as you got, & it ended up as pretty much a flip, so apart from not getting the 1st round bye - I'm very disappointed in you there, please draw better - no complaints here at all, & we'll dance again when the music is right.

Sounds like you played incred mate. As you said, the gods were against you from the start.

Really pleased to hear youve seen it in a positive light too, You played someone who was seen as a favourite for the event and by all accounts, played the better game. VWD

Nice report, pretty sick to run so incredibly bad in the round one draw, ul man.

Res 5pc for next year

Ul Dan, really tough draw there.
Gl in rest of series

Well played dan. Great report too.

you lose my money....u twat :P

reserve me next %

also update ur op that i paid, I grntee that my payment was the biggest pain in the arse ITT....also it looks good for my future potential grims


ul m8 heard u played pretty damn well

Thanks for losing our money you clown.

lol I sympathy bought some of you in the main, and actually paid for it. In full. In advance.

Some people don't know they're born :D

xx

No not at all. I was very aware at the time that if I did let it affect me then I was pretty much toast against Ike. Losing that all in didn't change the effective stack sizes so didn't require me to make any specific adjustments, just to keep on truckin'

By the time the next hand was dealt it was back to work :)

I always knew you were terrible

 ;iagree;