blonde poker forum

Ok here's one for yooooou.

$10/$20/$40

The tightest player on the planet limps early position playing chunks (pretty stnd to assume the more flags = the nittier) I have JJ on the C/O and raise to $160 playing ~$13k.

SB (playing EVERY hand) calls playing ~$9k
BigBig Blind (mid-20s seems to be really good, but playing VERY solidly) calls playing ~$20k, nit calls.

Flop ($660)  Tc Td 5c

Chk. BBB (mid 20s guy) asks the dealer if it's 3 or 4way then donks for $380. Nit folds, I call SB folds.

Turn ($1,440) 4d

he chks.

This seems like a joke simple spot. HOWEVER I'd like to know what people's plans for this hand are, and why. :)

The history is kind of non-existent between us, I'm assuming he thinks Im decent as i've been playing pretty good, I have been very active though (purely cos I have had the best seat) he doesn't appeared to have been out of line at all this game, although he certainly could have been. Been playing together for ~90minutes

Check behind and just bet huge on most rivers when checked to. If he bets again, fold. Prob views you as competant so if he donks into you again he prob has it. Think your hand is faceup. This Opinion is based on my limited experience at these stakes ($5nl)

i ck back and call river (but Im a nit)

685

this doesn't seem "nitty"

cmon Pleno I know you're a busy man but you can do better than this.

Betting why, doing what to a raise and doing what on what rivers?

only concerned about FD hitting on river, and even then not so much as he has no reason to slow down if he is going to donk flop. if he has the T god bless his cotton socks

Check for me. Hard to see you getting 2 streets of value from worse. Prevents us getting bluff check-raised, and we can rep a missed flush draw on the river when clubs brick, and he might pay us off, as this would probs be our line with Ace high clubs.

I don't like donking here with whatever he has - I think its pretty reasonable for him to assume readless-ish that your range pre is reasonably strong, he won't be getting many folds from you and that you will be betting this flop a large %age of the time which sounds to me like great justification for not leading in his spot. For that reason I think we can assume that he doesn't have a ten cos this is a pretty nutsy spot to c/r Tx cos he looks full of shit and you also have a pretty strong preflop range.

As for what sort of range to assign him that leads flop checks turn - I think flush draws with at least one over to the ten make up the vast majority of it. I'd imagine that he recognises that given pre+flop action you're almost never folding this turn so he doesn't want to bet and get raised. I'd definitely bet here and I think you have two options:

1) Pure value vs his range - bet as much as you think he'll call with the KQcc etc hands that we think make up the vast majority of his range

2) Try to induce him to take off. Given that I think him pretty much never having a better hand is reasonable, we're more than happy to bet/call turn and call a big %age of rivers. I doubt that he'd take off though if he's as good as you think and has a decent idea of your range here.

Bet $790

Check back + decide river. You could argue for a check-raise in villain's shoes with a balanced range of tens and draws here, maybe not balanced but you aren't gonna know which one he's doing it with if it happens, so its as good as balanced and thus very difficult to play against. Think I'm folding most rivers to most bets tbh, barring a live read.

@dmorgan not sure how you can rule out better hand categorically, playing 300bbs deep cash disguise is absolutely paramount, it's very important to be able to determine which 'bad' plays you can make early on in a hand to reap greater benefits on later streets when the bigger bets go in. Therefore it's equally important not to fall into the trap of betting big money on a false read that someone could "never" have a certain hand.

I don't think anybod goes for a donk into 5. People and then c/r turn this deep he's going to lead again with 10x as the board is so drawn and we can have a bunch of bluff catchers the more drawy the board the more people are usually inclined to bluff catch.

Ott I'd say we have the best hand close to 95% can rep floats and/or draws and he can also call with draws too. I'd bet any card lower than a jack Otr. I wouldn't worry about him c /r as he continues betting turn with his value range whilst nobody takes such ridiculous bluff lines.

Šorru for both shortish replies was on the grind x

Yeah 'pretty much never' was probably a bit strong, but given that he has such a good c/r spot on the flop with a ten I still think its unlikely that he plays Tx this way.

Agree now that turn is a fold to a c/raise since donk flop c/r turn seems to be the next most likely like he'll take with Tx. I still think that a flop c/r is the most likely line that he takes with Tx though.

I think it's just a bet for value here. Our hand is probably good and he will call with worse and draws

wow this is weird.

When he checked the turn I thought it ~75% likely he had a TEN....

my reasons for thinking this were these...

1) I think he'd donk a ten OTF a LOT because of the guy in the SB who was literally playing EVERY hand, this means that a) the SB is more likely to call a bet from him and b) I am less likely to bet with total air because it will get through so infrequently - stuff with BD fd's and high cards etc I'd v likely just check and then try find a spot to be able to value bet something later on.

2) I think he would chk/call or chk/raise his flush draws more often than is default here (sepshly with overcards) because I can bet very wide for value OTF (because of the SB) the SB will call more often and with all weaker draws. He will raise some% as well as he can freeze me out with the weaker hands I have for value and value-own the SB decently well, IP against an EXTREMELY strong range.

Once I call the turn I agree my hand is a little face up - I have a FD, or an OP pretty much all of the time I'd flat 10x here OTF as well ofc to try keep the SB in but the Tx's I'm opening are mostly just the suited ones + of KT/ATo etc so not too many combo's I think he;ll think I'll have floated some VERY SMALL % as well, and if I have will almost always have been with a BD FD. something like  7d 8d etc, so whereas he will have expected me to float hardly ever he will not expect that virtually all my floats will be semi-bluffing the turn here, I think he'd expect me to bet an OP a high % OTT but I will struggle to call 3 down here in this spot as my range gets weaker down the streets vs his which is pretty open. So it seems like a spot where for him the nut vacuum line would be to chk his Tx's and bet his draws. I literally can't think of anything else he checks here that he wants to donk 4way OTF exept possibly a flush draw which he is going to chk/fold - thinking that he won't be able to get me off an OP so just hoping it checks through and he gets to see a free river.

I don't think he has diamonds even 3% of the time and it seems like an ideal spot to bet 3 with a FD, if you're going to bet the flop 4 way, and the frequencies of which he donks ANY flopped flush draw are certainly questionable.

SO, once he has checked the turn, what else does he have that I have missed?

basically what the rabble is asking is lol.

When we bet the turn, do we achieve anything than allow the few% of FD's he's checked to bluff us and put in more money vs 10x?

Can he actually have a value hand to chk/call here WORSE than JJ?

We protect our equity vs some Qd Jd type hands that decide to chk/fold (whilst hoping they get a free river) the turn, but I can't see any other + to betting,

Having said this, checking doesn;t seem great.

I think he can easily have the same type of hand as you that you beat (77-99).

I think he can have a fd a little more than you do, but agree that it's strange when he checks, unless his plan was to cr (76dd) maybe. Therefore I'd be happy to disappoint him if it was his plan.

Just can't see him checking a T unless he filled up which is obv puke.

Given the reasonable strength of our hand I'm happy to try and get this to showdown. You are kind of under repped given the action pre.

Under repped? We have just about the bottom of our range for getting to the turn this way. Not stoved it so could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure JJ is in worse shape than any nut flush draw vs whatever range you want to give villain, unless it's literally just 66-99 which I think would be absurd. I don't even think he has those in his range at all.

Btw dave when you said "joke simple spot", you meant simple check right?

What I meant was checking doesn't seem great as in my mind it meant I couldn;t call any river bets but I can't think of a single good reason to bet and I was really hoping someone would give me one.

I actually think I could make a decent argument for folding the flop.

what I think here is if you know BB is a decent player he will surely have picked up this understanding and I think that he would lead here with 55 and any 10 and is never donk leading his flush draw unless it's AKs cus people play that hand like lunatics, he never has a pair less than 10s because he would know his equity is terrible on this flop, I'm more inclined to say when he checks the turn he is holding only AKs or 10x

I see people donk lead this kind of flop with 5x, to see if they can take it down.

I think you could bet to keep 5x in if he wants to fish til the river. If not it saves you getting sucked out on by A5 when river comes 5 or A etc.

I would prob check behind and analyse river bet.

Checking back the turn serves two purposes that trump every other consideration.

First, it makes it as likely as possible that you will be able to turn over your hand to claim the pot. Showing down a winning hand strengthens your image in all manner of subtle and intangible ways.

Second, you get an opportunity to show a certain level of respect to an opponent who you perceive as a good player. This is very much undervalued. It is part of the art of establishing yourself in a game; creating a chilled and respectful dynamic between you and another winning player. "I'm not here to fuck with you, no need to fuck with me. Let's leave each other out of it". Mastering this skill is a bit of an art form and requires both parties to have a certain level of social intelligence. It is hugely beneficial, since it allows several strong players to profitably inhabit the same game without getting in each others way.

This is the most profitable dynamic for every winning player.

fwiw, I think most 5x's would be a chk/fold on the flop here if I was this guy.

Possible exception of A5, (or indeed J5/Q5/K5 should he have these, which he prolly wont) but A5s with a bd FD he very well good donk the flop with.

I'll tell you what happened as I think it's kind of interesting.

I chked the turn back, River was a total blank, he checks....

Wat we doing now?

Strong argument for checking back the river again and ensuing that you get to showdown your hand... for all the reasons I stated a couple of posts ago.

Plus you guarantee seeing his hand which can be very beneficial considering he has taken a non-standard line.

If every hand was a vacuum then betting the river for value is best. But we are not playing in a vacuum so it is worth considering the future EV of creating the 'right' dynamic between you and another good player. Plus let's make no bones about it, it is thin value - if he is a good player that is. Obviously against a bad player/cally wally I'd be betting the river, and would have bet the turn too for that matter.

I think it's REALLY thin.

What's calling, 77/88/99? A5? I really do think the only thing we beat is a flopped FD that tried to iso vs the SB OTF and decided to just give up OOP vs me on the turn.

The other concern is a leave myself a little venerable to get bluffed here, I think whereas it's a bit odd it's pretty feasible still for him to show up with a TEN here, mostly because of the dynamic the SB adds to the hand OTF

Yes. But not because:


This is not exactly true. In fact, once he checks the river, we are usually winning. But the point is that, if villain is a good player, we will rarely get called when we are winning. That's why it is a thin value bet... because whilst we expect to be winning most of the time, we don't expect to be winning most of the time if we bet and get called.


This is of course a valid additional consideration.

Can you post results for this hand please, Dave?

Ooh ... Ooh !

Think I knows this one  ......

Well, not sure Dave would do it but I check back on the basis that I'll only get a call off some one beats me,

Having said that I don't even play 10-20-40 PENCE blinds never mind $ so what do I know

I check back and he has KTo

i think we get outplayed less often getting a second street ott than the river.