blonde poker forum

Ok so this hand has generated a lot of good discussion between my friends and I so I thought I'd post it here and see what you guys think.

Hand takes place at 25/50. My table is really tough for this tourney with Yevgeniy 2 to my right, good american kid on my left (who i later found out to be Thayer), some 5/10 online 6max cash reg who was playing well and the villain in this hand; young european dude who I vaguely recognised and have the feeling that the reason i do is because he's reallll good. Certainly carries himself well and looks the typical european superstar.

Villain is only recently moved to the table but these are initial impressions.

I start hand with ~4375, villain covers. This is last hand before break.

I open button to 125 with Ad8s, villain defends BB.

Flop 9s 8h 2d

Villain checks, I bet 150, villain calls in rhythm.

Turn 9s 8h 2d 4s (POT 575)

Villain checks, I bet 325, villain thinks for a bit then raises to 875. I call after ~30 secs

River 9s 8h 2d 4s Ts (POT 2325)

Villain picks up his whole stack and dumps it in the middle after around 5 secs. I have 3225 behind and dont want to fold....

want to be a hero.. but really cant here. no decent understanding of his game and your not ahead of much (state the obv why dont i), if you called and was good you are more of a hero than frodo baggins and deserve a baby bracelet for your call :)

Going to assume that he perceives you as unknown...

First instinct looking at this is that it's pretty hard for him to have air? We'd expect a ton of higher card combos to 3bet pre, TJ/QJ/QT to c/r flop more often than flat. This particular turn I don't think he can reasonably assume that you're barrelling all of your air since I doubt you really expect to fold out much. He pretty much has to have a pure float?

The part of your thought process that I definitely agree with is that if he did c/r turn with a bluff he is absolutely jamming this river. I just think that there aren't enough reasons for him to c/r turn with a bluff to make calling this river viable. Your range isn't really capped at all here either, it's pretty reasonable with the stack to pot ratio for you to flat sets on the turn.

I think you're just levelling yourself here mate

Cliffs: HSMTT reg in 'wanting to station vs unorthodox line' shocker :P

Would be very interested to hear what others said. Would have to be over a beer though. You got a Vegas number yet?

Yeh I think folding is best here, what air can he have on the flop/turn that doesn't improve on this river? Who's bluffing range even if td existent (it's probably not) would be what 56/ kq? It's pre antes so I don't expect some hilar peel possible possible k7s with bdfd otf.

The main thing troubling me is his turn sizing.. Why not make t bigger and have a normal sized shove Otr? I think the main thing in the hand is the turn sizing and we nee to understand what t meas.

Can't see why you want to call here unless you have some live reads/intuition going.  You have about the worst hand you can have in this spot and if villain was semi bluffing on the turn everything apart from 56/57 got there.  Your range is still pretty much nutted here and villain should know this.  Can he bluffing here? - yes its possible.  Is he bluffing here greater than 37% of the time almost certainly no.

I do worry he could be bluffing with better than A8 here, prolly isnt cos its kinda sick but the fact that some (albeit small) % of his bluffs beat us would really dissuade me from calling.

Its a really weird hand. I instinctively wanted to call but really struggled to find hands we beat lol. Problem is I struggled to find hands he has that beat us except Axss and he cant really have AQ-AKss due to preflop, T98s are all discounted too further cutting the combos.

I also think strong made hands otf would c/r this flop seeing as its 2 youngish guys in a 6 max btn v bb and the potential for me tooling out (as always) is very high. I tend to think he would c/r alot of the hands Dan mentioned too (JT, QT, QJ etc etc).

Basically the flop c/c made me think he has a marginal showdown hand a lot more often than a nutted hand then he c/r the turn when he realises he cant call down and turns it into a bluff?

Also we want to fold a lot of hands on this river to the overbet so I feel like a very good player playing against a perceived random kid is probably not doing this for value a lot as Im just going to be folding so often. Like if he had a flush id expect him to take more time and bet like 1475 or something?


Oh and always down for beers Dan. No vegas number as im a huge lazy fish but got my UK one with me. Just FB me or something and we'll get some jars in.

Sup bro,

been thinking about this hand for a bit and really can't think of anything you beat. If you suspect him as being a sicko then he should be capable of putting you in with 2 pair hands here which really do seem like the bottom of his range when he bombs the river. It would be reallly unusual for him to just punt it off if he's new to the table; especially over a pot that only had a few bb in to the flop. I really can't see him getting the wings out here, even though the fact that we have the 8s might let our mind wander. It's one of those spots were everything he does signals a big lightbulb in our heads and makes you want to do a silly but a spot where he always has it imo.

pretty level 1 thinking but check turn?

Also where you really went wrong in this hand is by getting a ridic table draw for a 1k.