blonde poker forum

5 handed.  Effective stack ~£500

Mitch opens to 7 from CO. Button calls.
Hero three-bets to 31 with  Kc Qd.
Both call.

Pot: £95.

Flop:  Qh Jh 2s

Hero bets 51, both call.

Pot: £248

Turn:  9d

Hero checks, mitch checks, button bets 100.
Hero calls, mitch calls.

Pot: £548

River:  4h

Board:  Qh Jh 2s 9d 4h

Hero checks, mitch shoves 331, button folds.

Hero?

It's pretty clear I never have a flush in this spot, and Mitch is by far the most likely to have a flush imo. kt - may have shipped turn when there is all the dead money in the middle. ranges for the button villain?

thoughts were that ofc mitch can have a flush a fair amount of the time here, but he may be able to get better to fold and worse to call. think there are alot of pair/straight draw combos he may have that will turn into bluffs on the river because it's such an easy spot to get folds from so many hands in both our ranges.

It's £331 to win £879.need to be right just over 27% of the time to make it a profitable call...

if you call, you will lose.

if you fold, mitch will show you a bruff.

<3 the absolutely massive little monson.

fold though and i don't think it's that close.

i really dislike the 3bet pre. mitch is going to make your life hell post flop and the other dude isnt going to fold and we cant just bbjam lots of boards because of stack sizes.

yh don't like the 3bet pf, would prefer a fold but given how mitch is gong to open a ton of Kx's and Qx's I think flatting, even with an offsuit hand here is good.

As played bet/call or c/f the turn, I think chk/call is the nut low line as we let everyone else realize their equity, and make the river boarderline unplayable for ourselves turning a hand with decent value into a really tricky bluff catcher.

bet call turn for me.

Don't mind the 3bet pre at all 3 ways, would be more inclined to flat if the squeeze wasn't on.

the turn ruined your life and the river crushed it,
if you are 3b OOP with KQo and hit top pair on a drawy board of villains hand ranges and lead for 51 into 95 you are basically repping the strength hand you have.
giving opponents the chance to call and bet/raise you off any scare cards.
you had to make the flop bet at least 71+ you can make better reads on who actually has something worth playing on this flop. i think you may get one fold this way, and then you can analyse the situation from there.

your check call of the turn bet was not needed you can keep those 50bb for next time!

For the record, the button is Alan Stearn. Make of that what you will.

Not sure if you know him or not mike, presume you don't.


Edit: and we're playing 5 or 6 handed.

Mitch itt justifying an ambitious pre flop peel

SHOCK!

I like the 3 bet pre but maybe do it bigger and charge the monson for his bad peel.  He doesnt have k10/810 here as hes just raising those on turn esp versus other villain in the hand.  So he either has a flush or is turning a made hand into a bluff.  It seems like a simple fold but the problem is after eating and sleazing Mitch's next favourite hobby is turning made hands into bluffs - if he has Q10 here i think hes shoving to get you off a better Q (mitch might also shove AQ here as a bluff which further complicates it!). 
Also relevant is how deep Stearn is - i.e. Does Mitch think he has enough behind to get him to fold.  With Stearns bet sizing on the turn i doubt he has a super strong hand and Mitch will prob know this as well.
All in all i think its closer than it normally would be just because of the villains involved but prob got to fold because of the appaling board run out.

One thing to note, Mitch always thinks that "he can only ever have a flush here" or that "he's bluffing 0.0001% of the time here". Then you call and he says "you win" and berates you for how he's never bluffing in that spot and says "how can I not have a flush there".

Thanks for the responses everyone.

My main reasoning for 3betting pre was for value, agree that it's hard to bbjam pleno.  i wasn't expecting folds too often, so three betting a non-value range is not something I'd do in this spot.

Re: the turn.  Feel like if I bet call I'm pretty much always dead? Really can't see alan or mitch shoving with worse.  If I'm shoved on, expect to see kT alot of the time, or sets (though given the action pre, v unlikely, cant see how 99 would get to the turn, and i think 22 raises the flop all day long).  Dave - was close to c/f turn.  What do you think our hand looks like here i.e. I think it's slightly better than it has to be in this spot? I was gonna fold to say a 170 bet, but the 100 bet was a bit like wtf! Thought he's never got a nutted hand here, and it's pretty hard for mitch to have a nutted hand ott here so getting like 3.5-1, thought a call was mandatory?

Otr is pretty annoying but I've thought about it more today and it looks more like a flush.  When mitch overcalls the button bet and my call ott, he's obv getting a great price with flush draws/pair and straight draws.  My thought was that ott, like me, he has a hand which is not good enough to bet/call but has enough equity to c/c.  I'm not really too sure how my image was perceived at that moment, I was doing my 3betting than calling pre, playing pretty snug, so I'm defo not ool in either of the players' eyes i don't think.  As in, against some players mitch's shove has to be a good hand because they won't be folding pairs ever, but I think I'm perceived as a thinking player (I hope!).  Essentially I thought the decision comes down to whether he has a flush or not, as I'm beating most made hands that are turning themselves into bluffs, which I thought mitch may do to get alan off a better hand.

fwiw I haven't played much with alan so don't really know his game, thought I'm gonna go on the side of gambler than than nit?

I'm pretty much betting this kind of figure into three people in a three bet pot with all my range, as I want to be balanced in three bet pots, otherwise barrelling 75 as a bluff could get expensive! If the board was dry like Q23r, or A49r I'd be betting smaller like 44ish.  I'd don't necessarily want folds from draws, but agree that I could possibly bet more to charge them/get value from them.

how shallow do we have to be in your opinion to make 3betting kqo profitable here?

Very much this. Could make it 37 pre?

I think being 120bbs or less will be good and expoit his bad peels.

i think we go 3 way to the flop almost always, the PokerStrategy.com equilab tool shows us the following equity's.


Equity Win Tie 
MP2  35.05%  32.66%  2.38% KQo
MP3  29.73%  28.92%  0.81% 88-22, AQs-A2s, K7s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo-ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo, T8o+, 98o
CO  35.22%  32.80%  2.42% JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo, KQo


We're also not going to win often when we don't have the best hand and sometimes fold when we do have the best hand. Cbetting vs these two ranges on a range of different boards isn't going to show a profit either I don't think.

If we want to exploit Mitch's week range I'd prefer to go for "thin" c/raises and value bets rather than inflating the pot and being in lots of uncomfortable post flop spots.

There's multiple things I dislike about this hand. 3 bettin to 31 is way to big when your oop to a player like Mitch. He will out play most people for fun . The flop bet is ok maybe a little bigger like 60-65. But surly when we get called in 2 spots on the flop we are never good IMO. So why check call the turn and still leave the action open to Mitch. Now were at the river just fold. Although I don't think Mitch has a flush.  Think I just check fold the turn on this one.

What size to you suggest 3betting to? Surely the smaller we go, the harder we get owned as effective stacks are deeper? Otf I don't see why we can't have the best hand alot of the time, turn is a much trickier spot imo.  We are three handed as well, hu I'm gonna bet this turn alot, and agree that im c/f the turn alot 3 way, but the action has developed quite strangely at this point.

Also, if Mitch doesn't have a flush as you say, what does he have otr that we should still fold to?

What exactly do you mean "realize their equity"?

any spot where you dont have the nuts (speshly 3way) you have less than 100% equity, anytime you allow hands with 1%+ equity to seee an additional card for free you let him realise equity he basically isnt entitled to because he should be folding.

Obviously most of the time he has decent equity he'll be calling anyways, and often there are decent strategic reasons to not bet, but denying other people their equity is somthing that you should always consider because even when we win 100% of a pot we only have 90% equity in, we gain a small bit of equity that isn't ours.