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Title: One for the MTT wizards Post by: TL900 on June 16, 2012, 09:14:39 AM PokerStars Hand #82003504612: Tournament #571440725, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2012/06/15 23:13:57 WET [2012/06/15 18:13:57 ET]
Table '571440725 21' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: poochings1 (4846 in chips) Seat 2: funkjel (2387 in chips) Seat 3: nala1988 (4379 in chips) Seat 4: 007zigzag (1390 in chips) Seat 5: Mt.Spewmore (2410 in chips) Seat 6: xmeteorox (6060 in chips) Seat 7: UncaJ5 (2575 in chips) Seat 8: SteveCap74 (4280 in chips) Seat 9: StarlingC (2738 in chips) SteveCap74: posts small blind 40 StarlingC: posts big blind 80 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Mt.Spewmore [9c 9d] poochings1: folds funkjel: raises 105 to 185 nala1988: folds 007zigzag: calls 185 OR is a reg playing 26/18, 13% EP open over just short of 500 hands, flatter is a splashy fish. Really not sure what is optimal here. Also if we place antes in, what are we doing? 88/TT in this scenario also? Added to OP : 6% 3bet 43% fold to 3bet 13% 4bet (1/8) sample so not all that helpful Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: LonOhRay on June 16, 2012, 09:36:10 AM edit
Misread stack sizes, and fish has 17 bigs Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: jackinbeat on June 16, 2012, 09:49:24 AM Do you reallt think you have set mining odds here? Think i'm either jamming or folding, 30bb, with ante's i'm leaning towards a shove too. Got a feeling I could be wrong here, interesting spot, wwyd witha suited Ax hand or AT+?
Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: TL900 on June 16, 2012, 09:54:15 AM any 3 bet stats over the 500 hands? 6% 3bet 43% fold to 3bet 13% 4bet (1/8) sample so not all that helpful Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: the rage on June 16, 2012, 10:20:14 AM I would go for the set mining option here
Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: MC on June 16, 2012, 10:27:12 AM I think flat calling is bad. Prefer folding to flatting.
Looks like a 3b/fold vs reg, 3b/call vs the fish. Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: PutYouOnAK/AQ on June 16, 2012, 11:04:10 AM Yeah this is pretty akward, stack sizes are a complete nightmare. I think call or fold are optimal here. 3bet/folding to the reg would be bad here because of stack sizes, and as he's a reg we're not in good shape vs his pre ante opening range as it is. (which makes shoving pointless because we're crushed when he calls and the fish is probably going to fold anyway.
We defo don't have odds to set mine but we're not set mining if we call we're just playing the hand in position. Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: DMorgan on June 16, 2012, 04:16:26 PM I think flat calling is bad. Prefer folding to flatting. Looks like a 3b/fold vs reg, 3b/call vs the fish. +1 Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: TL900 on June 16, 2012, 04:37:32 PM I assume dan and james do the same with 88? What about TT/JJ?
What does adding antes do to this spot? fwiw, i think flatting is the worst option also. Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: MC on June 16, 2012, 05:24:17 PM I assume dan and james do the same with 88? What about TT/JJ? What does adding antes do to this spot? fwiw, i think flatting is the worst option also. I guess 88 is essentially the same hand but I'm getting more into folding territory with eights. TT I probs play the same except it's more of a sigh fold to the reg, JJ I guess we can 3b/call against the reg. I don't think antes make a huge difference as I still don't think they make shoving pre the best option. Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: Nit Tendencies on June 16, 2012, 05:37:04 PM Yeah this is pretty akward, stack sizes are a complete nightmare. I think call or fold are optimal here. 3bet/folding to the reg would be bad here because of stack sizes, and as he's a reg we're not in good shape vs his pre ante opening range as it is. (which makes shoving pointless because we're crushed when he calls and the fish is probably going to fold anyway. We defo don't have odds to set mine but we're not set mining if we call we're just playing the hand in position. You can't assume that just because he is a "reg" that he has a really tight opening range to the point where there are no viable aggressive options with 99 playing 30bbs. There are lots of different types of regs; some who open a lot, some who don't etc. and you'll end up making lots of mistakes in mtts by pigeon holing someone as a generic "reg" with no reads and simply assuming that they are only opening 99+ AJ+ for example (although in general it is better to lean on the tighter side if it's a marginal spot) I can't do the maths because I'm on my phone, but I think it'd be difficult for a shove to not show a profit here. The fish adds dead money and can easily call/call with worse hands (AK-AJ, 66-88) and probably only has TT/JJ that beats us. The opener won't be opening absurdly light out of 30bbs pre antes if he is a thinker but without reads you can safely assume he's opening KQ/KJss, QJss, 66-AA, AK-AT and possibly some random other slightly light opens. I'm not entirely sure if piling is the best option, but my instinct is that it will show a profit, and I think we are FAR too shallow to peel since our hand plays poorly 3 way this shallow because we don't have the implied for when we make a 9. If it folded to us on the btn or co we could probably whip out the peel but in this spot I think we should pile or fold. Thoughts? Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: outragous76 on June 16, 2012, 05:48:20 PM It's a fold for me unless I'm tilted when I obv jam!
Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: Junior Senior on June 16, 2012, 05:48:32 PM I probs just get it in here. What is the avg stack? Your shove will look a bit squeezy so may get called off light. I'm with nittendencies here that a shove in this spot overall shows a profit. Plus its a $15 MTT so if yiu are wrong you only lose €15 or have i got the wrong attitude?! :-)
Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: Nit Tendencies on June 16, 2012, 05:50:16 PM I assume dan and james do the same with 88? What about TT/JJ? What does adding antes do to this spot? fwiw, i think flatting is the worst option also. I guess 88 is essentially the same hand but I'm getting more into folding territory with eights. TT I probs play the same except it's more of a sigh fold to the reg, JJ I guess we can 3b/call against the reg. I don't think antes make a huge difference as I still don't think they make shoving pre the best option. 88 isn't the same hand at all because there is one less hand that the fish can call/call with that we beat and one more hand that the reg can call with that beats us (although he probably doesn't call that often with 99 but calls a non 0% of the time) which really negatively affects our equity. And no offence James, but how can you say that antes wouldn't affect our decision? If there are antes then we win more money when we get folds, improving our win rate. Also antes might open up the fish's calling range which improves our overall equity. Also, I don't think that the reg will think we have much of a 3bet/fold range here with no dynamic so what do you think about ripping JJ to try and rep a capped range vs the reg, or do you think we lose too much value from when the fish peels our 3bet and/or spazz shoves? Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: TL900 on June 16, 2012, 05:58:59 PM I probs just get it in here. What is the avg stack? Your shove will look a bit squeezy so may get called off light. I'm with nittendencies here that a shove in this spot overall shows a profit. Plus its a $15 MTT so if yiu are wrong you only lose €15 or have i got the wrong attitude?! :-) The average stack is completley irrelevant imo, and I don't understand why so many people put so much weight behind our stack in relation to the average. (not just talking about you obv) the amount of bb's is the only thing you should be concerned with and how to approach each action given your stack size. And yes, this is the wrong attitude imo, I want to make the best possible decision in every hand of every tournament I play, to improve not only my winrate/ROI but my overall game aswell. Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: PutYouOnAK/AQ on June 16, 2012, 06:37:05 PM Yeah this is pretty akward, stack sizes are a complete nightmare. I think call or fold are optimal here. 3bet/folding to the reg would be bad here because of stack sizes, and as he's a reg we're not in good shape vs his pre ante opening range as it is. (which makes shoving pointless because we're crushed when he calls and the fish is probably going to fold anyway. We defo don't have odds to set mine but we're not set mining if we call we're just playing the hand in position. You can't assume that just because he is a "reg" that he has a really tight opening range to the point where there are no viable aggressive options with 99 playing 30bbs. There are lots of different types of regs; some who open a lot, some who don't etc. and you'll end up making lots of mistakes in mtts by pigeon holing someone as a generic "reg" with no reads and simply assuming that they are only opening 99+ AJ+ for example (although in general it is better to lean on the tighter side if it's a marginal spot) I wouldn't assume this but if assumptions are all we have then its more likely that he is opening a pretty tight range here out of 30bigs pre antes. With antes I think this is a lot different but labelling the 'Majority' of regs pre ante as tight would be pretty accurate. (Prob why I can't 3bet kings pre antes vs Bear4arms without getting it in vs aces......... ;) ) would you assume in this spot that 'Dean23Price' opening range is going to be a lot different to 'YYR00000815' open? Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: MC on June 16, 2012, 08:34:42 PM I assume dan and james do the same with 88? What about TT/JJ? What does adding antes do to this spot? fwiw, i think flatting is the worst option also. I guess 88 is essentially the same hand but I'm getting more into folding territory with eights. TT I probs play the same except it's more of a sigh fold to the reg, JJ I guess we can 3b/call against the reg. I don't think antes make a huge difference as I still don't think they make shoving pre the best option. Also, I don't think that the reg will think we have much of a 3bet/fold range here with no dynamic so what do you think about ripping JJ to try and rep a capped range vs the reg, or do you think we lose too much value from when the fish peels our 3bet and/or spazz shoves? I just meant that with stack sizes the way they are, we are playing this hand exactly the same with or without antes, as I had excluded shoving as an option. Okay, it's nice if we win more at the end of the hand, but doesn't affect the way we play it. I suppose it slightly inflates the pot so the reg has slightly better odds to peel, but I doubt it alters his range. Unless I have underestimated how much antes affects his EP opening range I guess. I don't think shoving JJ is a great option. Even if he perceives our range as capped 66-TT/KQs/AQ+ or something, we're really only trying to get heros from nines and tens and, like you say, lose too much value vs donko. I think your right that jamming pre here is profitable. I originally miscalculated the pot slightly as I thought it was more of an overshove than it is. But 5x the pot size, as it is here, is generally the max you want to go. I stand by my original plan :) Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: Junior Senior on June 17, 2012, 12:16:22 AM I probs just get it in here. What is the avg stack? Your shove will look a bit squeezy so may get called off light. I'm with nittendencies here that a shove in this spot overall shows a profit. Plus its a $15 MTT so if yiu are wrong you only lose €15 or have i got the wrong attitude?! :-) The average stack is completley irrelevant imo, and I don't understand why so many people put so much weight behind our stack in relation to the average. (not just talking about you obv) the amount of bb's is the only thing you should be concerned with and how to approach each action given your stack size. And yes, this is the wrong attitude imo, I want to make the best possible decision in every hand of every tournament I play, to improve not only my winrate/ROI but my overall game aswell. Yes, was joking about the $15 comment. Why is avg stack irrelevant? I don't think it should be ignored. I have read this OP again and it's a tough one. It's closer than I first thought. Still reckon I am getting it in though. Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: Nit Tendencies on June 17, 2012, 03:50:35 PM Yeah I agree I think 3/fold to the reg and 3/call off the fish is probably the optimal decision here, piling being second, folding third and calling the least profitable.
Title: Re: One for the MTT wizards Post by: TL900 on June 19, 2012, 11:08:00 AM fwiw :
PokerStars Hand #82003504612: Tournament #571440725, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2012/06/15 23:13:57 WET [2012/06/15 18:13:57 ET] Table '571440725 21' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: poochings1 (4846 in chips) Seat 2: funkjel (2387 in chips) Seat 3: nala1988 (4379 in chips) Seat 4: 007zigzag (1390 in chips) Seat 5: Mt.Spewmore (2410 in chips) Seat 6: xmeteorox (6060 in chips) Seat 7: UncaJ5 (2575 in chips) Seat 8: SteveCap74 (4280 in chips) Seat 9: StarlingC (2738 in chips) SteveCap74: posts small blind 40 StarlingC: posts big blind 80 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Mt.Spewmore [9c 9d] poochings1: folds funkjel: raises 105 to 185 nala1988: folds 007zigzag: calls 185 Mt.Spewmore: raises 285 to 470 xmeteorox: folds UncaJ5: folds SteveCap74: folds StarlingC: folds funkjel: raises 1917 to 2387 and is all-in 007zigzag: folds Mt.Spewmore: folds Uncalled bet (1917) returned to funkjel funkjel collected 1245 from pot funkjel: doesn't show hand *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 1245 | Rake 0 Seat 1: poochings1 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: funkjel collected (1245) Seat 3: nala1988 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: 007zigzag folded before Flop Seat 5: Mt.Spewmore folded before Flop Seat 6: xmeteorox folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: UncaJ5 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: SteveCap74 (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 9: StarlingC (big blind) folded before Flop I can prob size it a little smaller as Im never getting exploited by OR, save 1bb maybe. Thanks for all the feedback |