blonde poker forum

Villain in this hand is rbc_mike on Blonde. We have a bit of a dynamic going on, the basics of which being that we're both comfortable level 4+ thinkers and that we both know that the other is a bit nitty, so ranges are widened but nobody is going to randomly take off. Villain is to my immediate left but we've not had many bvb battles in this session as of yet. Villain has just lost a decent pot, so while he might not be blowing off steam here, it's not out of the realms of possibility that he thinks I think he is.

Villain is playing £300~ and I just about cover.

Dealt: Ad Kh

One limper to me otb, I raise to £5, villain in the sb raises to £20, limper folds I call.

Flop (£41): Tc Kc Kd

Villain bets £28 I call.

Turn (£97): Tc Kc Kd 2h

Villain bets £52 I call.

River (£201): Tc Kc Kd 2h 2d

Villain checks. We ??

Obviously betting here, but how much do we reckon represents what hand versus a thinking player and a player that probably expects me to bet a massive portion of my range when checked to on the river after calling two streets?

My first thought was the mash it all in, which is definitely what I'd do versus a fish as my hand very much looks like an AQ/AJ missed flush draw. Figured for this reason it would look pretty nutted to a decent player. My next thought was a £40-55 value bet for basically the opposite reasons, ie it's such an obvious value bet size that I shouldn't ever be bluffing but for that reason can be bluffing. Might get called by ace high, QQ/JJ.

I opted for £85 to basically merge these two thought processes, but I'm not sure if this still weights me towards value hands or what it does to the illusion of fold equity when I'm playing a little over £100 behind.

Thoughts?

shove? doesnt look close???

also 4bet pre right?

Why and why?

I rarely played level 4 thinking players ;) but...

Cant see any bet being paid off based on original idea that your both nits. He's never going to be inducing Acx kinda hand to bet as a bluff on this board texture. Nor is any Tx hand going to bet this river either.
I just shove and hope he has TT ;) Cant really see what else to do with 200 back and 200 in the pot. Nuts or nothing.
Get a maniac pleno image, shove river, get paid.

Pleno - 4b pre? sizing if so? 53? and then get it in pre obvs.

people always call when theres a missed fd, we have less than a pot sized bet on the river and generally would shove if we were bluffing right so for balance and for value we want to shove?

theres a bunch of j9/qj/aj kinda hands that missed and im very surprised if he folds jj to a pot sized bet

 ;all-in;

Zerofive

Perhaps your original suggestion of jamming would be one of the least profitable lines given the OP. You have been offered SP odds to chase your flush to the river from rbc_mike and it would appear to a noob that you took that line, as 5X otb then to limp a 3bet w/ position looks like a preflop standard from a 4+ thinker with AcXc/XcXc . However, No rlly decent player would believe you have AcXc/XcXc here and that your jambluffing the river often enough to keep you honest which makes you right, you look stone nutted.
Because you are giving credit to rbc_mike as a good player with a similair style to you, and he you, he must adopt elements of game theory within his playing style and expect you to do the same. Which means you need to find yourself value bet sized bluffing this situation with AcXc/XcXc at the river after he checks to you at least occasionally to keep him guessing, as he would be calling the correct % of times for a nullEV. so I would take a standard £40-£60 river bet which doesn't looked nutted here, but does look like a valuebet sized bluff with AcXc/XcXc. your getting paid off by rbc_mike when he holds AX TT JJ QQ. Where as if you make it £60-£100 I don't feel he's calling with Ax. Long term it appears to me that not looking greedy here keeps you AK hidden to a decent £ showdown.

Discussed this with you after it happened. Didn't realise mike was rbc tho!

Of course it's a bit of a nitfest here but it's also a hand between two regs. It's not like villain is a recreational nit or an old man, so I don't think it's correct to say he's not inducing bluffs.


Also, I'm for sure not as polarised here as it first appears. I think jamming a pot sized bet on the river might be the worst line I can take as I'm never going to be bluffing so I'm only getting called by the top of his range ie TT and chops.


Why do we want to get this hand in versus a tight player who knows we're a tight player? We could try and invent fictitious levels here, but the fact is we're going to be very happy to flipping when 6b jam. If we're a little shallower and villain has been a little more active/overconfident/clearly tilted then maybe we can 4b call it off against basically AQ and flips.

Just give him a dry smile look at the dealer a little nervously announce raise and slide out a stack and then start chewing the lower end of the sleeve of your jumper. Gotta sell eat customer..

On
River I disagree that we woe choose an all In size of we were going tO bet. If bully is correct on saying he calls 10a+ on the river to a jam then we have a very profitable jam

I actually like calling pre rather than 4betting, if he's just lost a pot then you 4bet him it's so rare you're going to be light and I don't think you'll actually be doing too great vs his range if you get it in.

Flatting you under-rep your hand and its quite easy to win a decent size pot on A or Khi boards as people will expect you to have 4bet if you had AK. Also you give yourself the chance to flop dominating top pairs if he decides to 3bet the Ax or Kxs hands.

Flatting pre is fine. You are going to be flatting a huge range of hands when he 3bets given the deep stacks and positions, and it is great to have a strong hand like this in your range.

Jam river now.

I would have pissed myself

He's just lost a big pot and we have ak and it's live and be thinks we're competent. People just blow far too easily in these spots and probably one of big leaks from most live cash game regs. Exploit it IMO.

I'm in the peel camp.

I'm also in the all-in camp.

You decide the streets.

Pleno, do you wear a cowboy hat at the table?

Definitely jam now, as for pre I think flat or 4b is fine, I think I'd prefer a 4bet OOP but peel here since we're in position.

I think its a great spot to jam because your line in completely consistent with all the missed draws and if he's ever going to be curious and flick it in somewhat light (which regs always will at some point) then jam >>>>>>> any other sizing.

Its not just this particular spot either. Any time you show up with a value hand in a spot where you very credibly rep a wide range of bluffs you should be using big sizings.

This is a very good point Dan :)up

A big consideration for your river sizing should be his 3bet range here, if his 3bets are pretty strong and polarised and you expect him to be "light" with a low(ish) frequency then its a clear clear jam as his range is still pretty strong, if he would 3bet wider and lighter then you might wanna think about some silly £35 bet and try induce something, as he will be checking to chk/fold a very high % of the time, cos he wont have any hand at all.

This statement is very very wrong. What would you bet on this river apart from trips +? You are checking back a tonne of your range on this river. Stuff like AT, 99. Also, given that the board is paired and that he is a not a fish would you really call the turn with a flush draw. This would be a leak imo.

Anyway river is an easy ship for value. Given how deep you are you could also think about min-raising the flop.

Why are we checking back these hands?

Also, I might not call the turn with a flush draw, I might play the entire hand differently, but I think it's wrong to say that his perception of my range by the river doesn't include missed draws.