blonde poker forum

No Limit Holdem Tournament 
PokerStars 
9 Players 
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/ 
$10+$1 
 
Stacks: 
UTG  Avely 220k 55bb 
UTG+1  elastiekje 69k 17bb 
MP1  Wuestmann 216k 54bb 
MP2  TakeRisks 153k 38bb 
MP3  Murray82 49k 12bb 
CO  Mr.Bob-su 242k 61bb 
BTN  Con-Artistt 34k 8bb 
SB  dani1111116 173k 43bb 
BB  cocophil 109k 27bb 
 
Blinds: 2k/4k Ante 500 
 
Pre-Flop: (11k, 9 players) TakeRisks is MP2 Jd Js 
1 fold, elastiekje calls 4k, 1 fold, TakeRisks raises to 9k, 3 folds, dani1111116 raises to 48k, 1 fold, elastiekje folds, TakeRisks goes all-in 152k, dani1111116 calls 104k 
 
Hes 31/20 over 28 hands with 10% 3bet, obv stats mean nothing. Peeled a raise with 83o and called all 3, admittedly tiny bets on 8cK4c6cx, he had 3 of clubs. 

175 left, both about 50th completely standard?

iso a bit bigger pre, and I dont think im folding vs a spaz

Opened so small because utg has lost 60k in an orbit, and he opened last round and I 3bet, so wanted to give him any reason to shove. That fair?

def getting it in here

Getting it in basically all the time here

It's by no means an easy decision either way, in my opinion.
 You've made a small raise from middle position and then you are faced with a very large three bet from the small blind.
 How frequently are people three betting light in this scenario? I would say, probably not very often.
 Villian might have interpreted your raise as you trying to isolate the limper cheaply but he could just as easily be veiwing your raise as indicating a very strong hand.
I dont beleive your jacks are in particularly great shape against villian's calling range and i dont think he's folding often enough (if at all) to make jamming 36bb a wise move.
 So, it's FOLD and wait for better spots for me.

Having said all that, i suppose the clue is in the title, so villian probably snap calls with ace five suited and rivers the flush.

He had dem Aces and we didn't get there despite the 89T flop.

This is surprisingly close, and I'm happy taking a flip vs his range, but on the counter side it was really soft and i had chipped up nicely.

Sounds like you talked yourself intothe call based on the slight history and game flow. On the face of it and readin hand history alone. I fold.

Deffo have to raise bigger pre. As played i can't find good enough reasons to fold here. 28 hands is small but not meaningless and he's been pretty spazzy in that time. Seems like a standard cooler to me.

Can't fold once his range starts getting wider than TT+/AQs

Normally i think cram the lot 100% correct. But, there is no real correlation between seeing him peel with 83o to him 3bing TT- and getting it in. The problem i see is, this is a large flip, in a tourney with XXXX runners, and all the prizepool at the top. The field is joke soft, i have a big edge, and am very comfortable pushing/bullying in the future. When i weighted his range to half AA/KK combos and QQ-99 with AKs,AKo and AQs, we only have about 53% equity, which is quite low compared to my initial thoughts vs his range.

I guess ultimately it comes down to variance, and if I'd seen 99 here I'm not sure I'd have bothered posting. So chalk it up to cooler.

Pre is definitely stylistic imo, i want to look as weak as possible, and give people room to spaz, I have expected utg to jam, having just 3bet his last open the orbit before, and with his stack size decreasing so rapidly.