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PokerStars Hand #83326564642: Tournament #582828107, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (60/120) - 2012/07/15 0:12:47 CET [2012/07/14 18:12:47 ET]
Table '582828107 29' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: townknave (2515 in chips)
Seat 2: Action-DG (9545 in chips)
Seat 3: snm_harvey (2985 in chips)
Seat 4: MightyPol (5568 in chips)
Seat 5: pads1161 (8767 in chips)
townknave: posts the ante 15
Action-DG: posts the ante 15
snm_harvey: posts the ante 15
MightyPol: posts the ante 15
pads1161: posts the ante 15
townknave: posts small blind 60
Action-DG: posts big blind 120
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [4c 4s]
snm_harvey: folds
MightyPol: folds
pads1161: raises 120 to 240
townknave: folds
Action-DG: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [2c 2h 8h]
Action-DG: checks
pads1161: bets 301
Action-DG: raises 539 to 840
pads1161:

50 6max turbo, we have ool image

Don't like it mainly because of the FD. I think he's going to be reluctant to spaz when he can pretty easily get snapped off by a Q high that has 85% equity.

Also most of the hands he's going to spazz it in with will have decent enough equity anyways, not like we can ever get it in better than 70/30 and if he has something decent we're in horrible shape.

ok thx guys.

Have you ruled out 3 betting here?
Seems to me that you are almost always ahead on the flop here.
would 3 betting big here be an option worth considering? or do the stack sizes make this option a no no?
I'm just thinking that if you overbet here, villian would have to fold all possible hands that beat you, such as 8x, 55-77, so, in theory the only hands he then jams with are the flush draw, which you are in good shape against.
 So, you three bet as a semi-bluff. Ie-you get the hands that are beating you to fold, but you get it in against the hands that you flip with such as  Ahrt  Jh.
Is there any sense in this line of thought, or is my head still in the clouds, having just woken up?

"3bet flop to induce with underpair"

:P

I meant after the feedback so far, which you seemed to be accepting :)

There is a big problem with this, and that is that our equity vs the weakest hands in his range is ok, and vs the strongest part we're totally crushed. Lets say for example we get him to spanner it in with Q9o

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional) (http://'http://propokertools.com/odds_oracle')
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - 8h 2h 2s
PLAYER_1 44
PLAYER_2 Q9
95040 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chxl=2%3A|Percent|0%3A|Q9|44&chxt=y%2Cx%2Cx&chxp=2%2C50&chco=00aa00&chbh=a&chm=N%2A%2A%25%2C000000%2C0%2C%2D1%2C12%2C0%2Cr&chds=0%2C72&chxr=1%2C0%2C72&chs=400x95&cht=bhs&chd=t%3A71%2E8119%2C28%2E1881&chma=|10)

We have 70%,. Unless he decides to go of his lid with A4, 3* or 33 specifically (and he doesn't peel too many 3*s from the BB even in 6max) then the best case scenario is we get it in 70/30. I agree with DM when he says people are not going to be too likely to spanner off on a board texture like this, in a spot where you have a decently wide/feasible 3b/call range on the flop (most OP's are easy to get in with the 2 being the paired card, flush draws etc) and he's going to be under it vs anything legit you wanna 3b/call on the flop.


The problem with this is that when we get in vs a legit value range (8* if he's gone mental, slowplayed QQ+) then our equity is so poor

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional) (http://'http://propokertools.com/odds_oracle')
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - 8h 2h 2s
PLAYER_1 44
PLAYER_2 8*, QQ+
908820 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chxl=2%3A|Percent|0%3A|8%2A%2C%20QQ%2B|44&chxt=y%2Cx%2Cx&chxp=2%2C50&chco=00aa00&chbh=a&chm=N%2A%2A%25%2C000000%2C0%2C%2D1%2C12%2C0%2Cr&chds=0%2C91&chxr=1%2C0%2C91&chs=400x95&cht=bhs&chd=t%3A9%2E6385%2C90%2E3615&chma=|10)


These spots where it's close the main "room for error" if you like that you have is how much equity you have vs the average legitimate value hand he has and in spots where you're crushed (like here 10%~) then the maths is usually pretty brutal on the long term profit of the play. Because he needs to show up with Q9o/KJhh considerably more than he shows you something that smashes us.
Ithink this is a spot where your flop 3bs can be pretty polarised, speshly as the value range you're repping is completely reasonable, i wouldn't use 44 to bluff with, perhaps use it to call down sometime - depends what else you've got you can call him with, so I think for the most part I just fold here and use hands like overcard hands to start bluffing with

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional) (http://'http://propokertools.com/odds_oracle')
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - 8h 2h 2s
PLAYER_1 KhQ
PLAYER_2 8*, QQ+
582120 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chxl=2%3A|Percent|0%3A|8%2A%2C%20QQ%2B|KhQ&chxt=y%2Cx%2Cx&chxp=2%2C50&chco=00aa00&chbh=a&chm=N%2A%2A%25%2C000000%2C0%2C%2D1%2C12%2C0%2Cr&chds=0%2C72&chxr=1%2C0%2C72&chs=400x95&cht=bhs&chd=t%3A28%2E0674%2C71%2E9326&chma=|10)


granted your under it vs AJhh

Thanks for that LilDave.
Haven't quite got my head around it all just yet, but i will try and learn from it.
My idea about 3-betting big as a semi bluff was based on my (almost certainly mistaken) belief that villian rarely ever shows up with a hand that crushes us, but pretty much always folds 8x and 55-77 to a big 3-bet.
cheers anyway. :)

yh deffo some merit to it, problem is it's a 6max tourney online, I cant trust anyone to fold 8x here (speshly after they've c/r) they'll prolly expect your draws to 3bet more frequently than your 8X's and OP's so will prolly be extremely unlikely to fold. As for 55-77 I'd be quite surprised if they c/r those hands, for the same reason I wouldn't chose 44 to bluff with really.

I think in this spot i'm leaning towards call or fold more so than raise. I sould feel pretty dumb getting 44 in here as his range crushes us when were called as hands we have very few outs against or hands that have a ton of equity against us. I don't think calling can be too bad as we rep showdown value when we call his check raise and this means he will shut down a decent % of the time when hes bluffing as apart from the FD the board is pretty dry. If we call can rep stuff also on a ton of different run outs if he starts checking and try and barrel him off his 8x type hands . I think I might just fold here as we have a decent playable stack here if we fold and if we play this pot and lose were gonna be in the shit. I think this is just too marginal a spot basically so I guess I fold. If I call the flop I'd see it more as a float and turning my hand into a bluff even though im probably bluffing with the best hand a decent % of the time.