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Title: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 15, 2012, 01:01:16 PM OK normal routine, hands never hold blah blah blah, so using the tools of my day, Pen and Paper, i keep a little log showing how many hands hold and how many don't, how many times i get it in bad and win and the same but lose. Waste of time ?? You tell me.
Mtt's BTW So over 21 sessions (days normally) Ahead Behind Hold Doesn't Hold Wins Doesn't win 108 58 74 95 Totals 166 169 So they are what i would call big decision moments not when it goes either right or wrong during a hand playing all streets. I.e these are ai moments , and the behind hands are mainly shoving in position when needed. So, i thought i got it in good 95% of the time, i don't in fact i have more ai moments with the worse hand. My hands never hold, well the above shows they do 1 out of every 3 times. I do rather well from behind. So it would appear that generally i have no reason to complain,what do you guys think? I have this for a day to day basis and should be able to say on " X" day i got ul and "Y day i got very lucky. I can then look at some spots in HM ( I know i know, no doubt HM can tell me all of the above at a click but i can't find use the useful data) Any way guys what do you think, i know there are million other factors but does this do any thing to nullify the feeling that you always get sucked out on. I post rarely so don't frighten me off but i welcome any comments you may have. Regards Steve Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: millidonk on July 15, 2012, 01:03:37 PM Knowing how many times you get it in bad will be beneficial as you have somewhere to improve on. The results themselves are not important.
Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 15, 2012, 01:25:05 PM I hear what you are saying, and i know that you are right, but my brains can't tell my wallet when i bustout with qq against a9 deep in a T with 6k at top i cash for $25. We all know the brain remember them bits ( coz they hurt like fuck) so i just did this as a check to tell my brain to shut the fuck up and get in the next Tourney :)
Thanks for the reply Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: giveyourcash on July 15, 2012, 01:50:26 PM If something like this makes you feel better (and as such play better) then I guess it's useful but in the long run I think it could lead to counterproductive ways of thinking about the game not least that a few hundred hands means anything whatsoever in the grand scheme of things. Also you're not taking into account equity in particular hands. If you lose 3 55/45 flips in a row as favourite and then win with KK vs AA twice your log would show you being unlucky when equity wise you got super lucky.
Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Doobs on July 15, 2012, 02:18:08 PM Knowing how many times you get it in bad will be beneficial as you have somewhere to improve on. The results themselves are not important. I always remember a forum legend saying the trick in poker isn't to get it in good it is to get it in bad over and over again. Getting in bad is only bad if they never fold or you are getting the wrong odds etc. The exercise is probably good if it helps you realise it really isn't rigged and you dont always run bad. Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 15, 2012, 02:39:31 PM Cheers guys, just the sort of comments i was looking for.
Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: millidonk on July 15, 2012, 02:52:40 PM Knowing how many times you get it in bad will be beneficial as you have somewhere to improve on. The results themselves are not important. I always remember a forum legend saying the trick in poker isn't to get it in good it is to get it in bad over and over again. Getting in bad is only bad if they never fold or you are getting the wrong odds etc. The exercise is probably good if it helps you realise it really isn't rigged and you dont always run bad. Yea good point, I should have elaborated getting it in good = you don't have to actually be ahead but at least have decent equity. The % of their likeliness to fold is a bit more complicated to work out and involves you assigning them a particular range which is also open to interpretation. So If the OP reads getting it in bad as gettin it in with poor equity as opposed to actually being behind at that point. Just don't worry about the actual results. Easy to say but much harder to follow. Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 16, 2012, 05:43:51 PM Bump just the once to see if any body who may have missed this post may have any other thoughts.
Steve Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Longy on July 16, 2012, 09:20:11 PM Yeah sometimes it is correct to get it in behind more than you get in ahead. As your opponents will fold so often and you will take what is in the middle that will more than compensate for the losses you take at showdown.
Tbh I think it is a pretty pointless exercise and you should be concentrating on making correct decisions. Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 16, 2012, 09:38:20 PM Thanks for your reply,
I think i just did it to see if as i suspected that i always got it in good, which i thought was the nuts. If you can end up racing with ak vs aq and the like is this not the ideal situation ? Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: cambridgealex on July 16, 2012, 10:00:37 PM Getting it in bad is not a bad thing. If you're always getting it in good then you're not getting it in enough!
Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: skolsuper on July 17, 2012, 01:52:02 AM One from my 'Best of' album:
why does it matter tho......skolsuper are u the player that i played this hand against ?? No, it's just that if you really don't understand the shove with AJ, any further hand analysis on this thread is pretty much like rearranging deckchairs on the titanic. I'll try to explain.. Live players' view: You can either get it in good or get it in bad. Good players get it in good. If you do get it in good, for example correctly putting your opponent on AK and calling a 5bet shove with pocket threes or getting AA vs KK for 9bbs, you get a 1. When you get a 1, you deserve to win 100% of the pot, anything less is a suck-out. If you get it in bad, like the AJ in your hand or the kings in the earlier example, you get a 0. Internet players often get it in bad and rely on getting lucky hitting 20 to 1 outers to make money, however there are less outdraws in live poker so they struggle. Analysed this way, your TT is a call, he's often overplaying two big cards like AK (big pair vs 'just a drawing hand', that's a 1 TYVM) or maybe shoving a smaller pair. In the unlikely event he has a bigger pair then you get a 0, try harder next time, maybe look at him and see if he looks like he has a big pair. Definitely more 1s than 0s though. However, you're never calling with A9 or KQ or anything worse than AJ so he never gets 1s, only 0s, so surely he must be bluffing. You've shown strength by backraising him so his bluff is a terrible play. Good players' view: Poker isn't so black and white and rarely is a bet purely as a bluff or purely for value. When you make an all in bet, your equity in the hand is made up of two components, your fold equity and your expectation when called. Fold equity is the amount you win if your opponent folds, multiplied by the chance that they will fold. Your expectation when called depends on the relative strength of your hand and your opponents calling range. So, in your hand: Your calling range is roughly 88+ AQ and AK judging by your level of disdain for the AJ shove. Against this range AJo is 31.1% (from Pokerstove, if you don't have it, get it.) This range is only 5.6% of hands so even if you only raise like 1 in 15 of your other hands, that's still 6.3% of the time, meaning the chance you will fold to a shove is about 55% (the ratio of good hands to bad hands). The amount he will win if you fold is roughly 25k (his 5.2k, your 16.7k, and the blinds + antes). His showdown equity with AJ is 31.1% of 135k, minus the 62k it costs him to shove, which equals -20k. 55% of the time he wins 25k, 45% of the time he loses 20k (on average), taken together his total expectation for the shove is +4.75k. As you can see the reason that this is a positive expectation play is because of the times you fold, so in that way his shove is as a bluff. However if he holds 72o instead of AJo, his expectation vs your range is only 20.4%, which then makes his expectation a loss of 1.75k, so his shove is also based on the strength of his hand and is therefore, in part, a 'value shove'. Hope this helps. Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: DMorgan on July 17, 2012, 02:12:30 AM Original thread: http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=45957.0
Now its 2012 and both players are high fiving the dealer :D Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: dreenie on July 17, 2012, 02:13:39 AM One from my 'Best of' album: why does it matter tho......skolsuper are u the player that i played this hand against ?? No, it's just that if you really don't understand the shove with AJ, any further hand analysis on this thread is pretty much like rearranging deckchairs on the titanic. I'll try to explain.. Live players' view: You can either get it in good or get it in bad. Good players get it in good. If you do get it in good, for example correctly putting your opponent on AK and calling a 5bet shove with pocket threes or getting AA vs KK for 9bbs, you get a 1. When you get a 1, you deserve to win 100% of the pot, anything less is a suck-out. If you get it in bad, like the AJ in your hand or the kings in the earlier example, you get a 0. Internet players often get it in bad and rely on getting lucky hitting 20 to 1 outers to make money, however there are less outdraws in live poker so they struggle. Analysed this way, your TT is a call, he's often overplaying two big cards like AK (big pair vs 'just a drawing hand', that's a 1 TYVM) or maybe shoving a smaller pair. In the unlikely event he has a bigger pair then you get a 0, try harder next time, maybe look at him and see if he looks like he has a big pair. Definitely more 1s than 0s though. However, you're never calling with A9 or KQ or anything worse than AJ so he never gets 1s, only 0s, so surely he must be bluffing. You've shown strength by backraising him so his bluff is a terrible play. Good players' view: Poker isn't so black and white and rarely is a bet purely as a bluff or purely for value. When you make an all in bet, your equity in the hand is made up of two components, your fold equity and your expectation when called. Fold equity is the amount you win if your opponent folds, multiplied by the chance that they will fold. Your expectation when called depends on the relative strength of your hand and your opponents calling range. So, in your hand: Your calling range is roughly 88+ AQ and AK judging by your level of disdain for the AJ shove. Against this range AJo is 31.1% (from Pokerstove, if you don't have it, get it.) This range is only 5.6% of hands so even if you only raise like 1 in 15 of your other hands, that's still 6.3% of the time, meaning the chance you will fold to a shove is about 55% (the ratio of good hands to bad hands). The amount he will win if you fold is roughly 25k (his 5.2k, your 16.7k, and the blinds + antes). His showdown equity with AJ is 31.1% of 135k, minus the 62k it costs him to shove, which equals -20k. 55% of the time he wins 25k, 45% of the time he loses 20k (on average), taken together his total expectation for the shove is +4.75k. As you can see the reason that this is a positive expectation play is because of the times you fold, so in that way his shove is as a bluff. However if he holds 72o instead of AJo, his expectation vs your range is only 20.4%, which then makes his expectation a loss of 1.75k, so his shove is also based on the strength of his hand and is therefore, in part, a 'value shove'. Hope this helps. ^ Too good Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 17, 2012, 07:40:17 AM Getting it in bad is not a bad thing. If you're always getting it in good then you're not getting it in enough! Cheers for posting Alex. I thought (In my head) that i was always getting it in ahead and losing hence my little log, but in actual fact if you look back at the figures on page one i get it in bad slightly more than good, so maybe i rock and don't suck... too much. However i do understand or are begining to understand the point you and others are making. Steve Title: Re: Is this info of any use or am i just a donk? Post by: Steve Swift on July 17, 2012, 07:44:43 AM One from my 'Best of' album: why does it matter tho......skolsuper are u the player that i played this hand against ?? No, it's just that if you really don't understand the shove with AJ, any further hand analysis on this thread is pretty much like rearranging deckchairs on the titanic. I'll try to explain.. Live players' view: You can either get it in good or get it in bad. Good players get it in good. If you do get it in good, for example correctly putting your opponent on AK and calling a 5bet shove with pocket threes or getting AA vs KK for 9bbs, you get a 1. When you get a 1, you deserve to win 100% of the pot, anything less is a suck-out. If you get it in bad, like the AJ in your hand or the kings in the earlier example, you get a 0. Internet players often get it in bad and rely on getting lucky hitting 20 to 1 outers to make money, however there are less outdraws in live poker so they struggle. Analysed this way, your TT is a call, he's often overplaying two big cards like AK (big pair vs 'just a drawing hand', that's a 1 TYVM) or maybe shoving a smaller pair. In the unlikely event he has a bigger pair then you get a 0, try harder next time, maybe look at him and see if he looks like he has a big pair. Definitely more 1s than 0s though. However, you're never calling with A9 or KQ or anything worse than AJ so he never gets 1s, only 0s, so surely he must be bluffing. You've shown strength by backraising him so his bluff is a terrible play. Good players' view: Poker isn't so black and white and rarely is a bet purely as a bluff or purely for value. When you make an all in bet, your equity in the hand is made up of two components, your fold equity and your expectation when called. Fold equity is the amount you win if your opponent folds, multiplied by the chance that they will fold. Your expectation when called depends on the relative strength of your hand and your opponents calling range. So, in your hand: Your calling range is roughly 88+ AQ and AK judging by your level of disdain for the AJ shove. Against this range AJo is 31.1% (from Pokerstove, if you don't have it, get it.) This range is only 5.6% of hands so even if you only raise like 1 in 15 of your other hands, that's still 6.3% of the time, meaning the chance you will fold to a shove is about 55% (the ratio of good hands to bad hands). The amount he will win if you fold is roughly 25k (his 5.2k, your 16.7k, and the blinds + antes). His showdown equity with AJ is 31.1% of 135k, minus the 62k it costs him to shove, which equals -20k. 55% of the time he wins 25k, 45% of the time he loses 20k (on average), taken together his total expectation for the shove is +4.75k. As you can see the reason that this is a positive expectation play is because of the times you fold, so in that way his shove is as a bluff. However if he holds 72o instead of AJo, his expectation vs your range is only 20.4%, which then makes his expectation a loss of 1.75k, so his shove is also based on the strength of his hand and is therefore, in part, a 'value shove'. Hope this helps. Read it once some stuck, a few more reads needed i think. Steve |